5 ms·

And why not? At the rate SpaceX is moving at, they may have the world's largest orbital launch system by the end of the year. That's not even "Elon-time" anymo

by mabbo 6y ago

And why not? At the rate SpaceX is moving at, they may have the world's largest orbital launch system by the end of the year. That's not even "Elon-time" anymore, it's totally within reason that they could have their first orbital Starship launch this year. When Starship becomes commercially viable, things are going to change fast for the space industry. And that little Starbase in Boca Chica is going to be a busy place. (And in the meantime, we get to watch all the explody tests, which is excellent entertainment!)

ncallaway 6y ago
To be fair, "Elon time" for the first orbital Starship launch was 2020. Shotwell was saying that she would bet yes on an orbital Starship in 2021. I think "Shotwell" time is generally much closer to 1:1 time than Elon time. But I agree, Starship has a fairly plausible path to being orbital by the end of the year.
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  I'm generally inclined to give people a break on missing 2020 deadlines.
  - ncallaway 6y ago
    Sure, but Starship wasn't going to be orbital in 2020 even without the pandemic. It was a wildly unrealistic estimate to begin with that characterizes "Elon time" as a concept. Starship development has been blindly fast, and even still is a maybe on getting to orbit this year. I just don't think the pandemic pushed their timeline back significantly. I could be wrong, but that's my take from the outside looking in
    - bpodgursky 6y ago
      To be pedantic, it actually seems pretty likely the first stage could have reached LEO. There were no issues at all on ascent, and it has the fuel capacity. At one point Elon was talking about possibly testing this. But they decided not to do this, because their first priority was to get it to land, and they don't envision LEO launches using only the first stage. That will be in conjunction with the much larger second stage.
      - ncallaway 6y ago
        > At one point Elon was talking about possibly testing this. I hadn't heard about that. I know he's said that the Starship is theoretically _capable_ of SSTO w/ no payload, but I don't recall any suggestion from him that he'd test it. Elon says a lot of things though, and I probably just missed it somewhere. Any chance you know where/when he said it?
        bpodgursky 6y ago
        Nah, you're right. That's the quote I see, and probably all he said: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1076613555091234816 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1076613555091234816. Sounds like it's capable, and the plan on Moon and Mars, but not on Earth. Must have been others speculating on the Starship test plans.
      - yellowapple 6y ago
        > and they don't envision LEO launches using only the first stage. The bragging rights of being the first to achieve SSTO seem too tempting for Musk to ignore.
    - SEJeff 6y ago
      Sometimes Elon time is spot on even if it is very optimistic. There was an interview with him in 2008 saying he thought Tesla could deliver 500,000 vehicles a year by 2020 and they basically made that even with the pandemic. My hot take was that they skydiver maneuver and landing flip would be the hardest part for starship. They've actually done that part perfectly three times now, but haven't fully nailed the landing bit.
      - ncallaway 6y ago
        > My hot take was that they skydiver maneuver and landing flip would be the hardest part for starship. I mostly agree with this. I put both the landing flip maneuver and the heat-shield system on about the same level of difficulty for Starship. I think they've worked through the hinkiest bits of the landing flip with SN10 (though with some raptor relight stability being potentially a long-ish tail of improving). I'm curious to see how their heat-shielding mechanism works out. If they can built a heat shield system that works for orbital re-entry and is rapidly refurbishable, I'll be very happy that Starship will be able to meet the extreme goals SpaceX has created for it.
        nickik 6y ago
        Surprisingly the delay actually happened because of the structures. Not the landing. It took them way longer then anybody thought to produce the large tanks. If you look at timeline when they started in Boca, they thought they could do hops way sooner.
      - _ph_ 6y ago
        Indeed. Before the first test flight, I was skeptical whether they can control the aerodynamic flight with those flaps. While they demonstrated their capabilities to control a rocket with the engines with the F9. But the one thing that seems to be rock stable is the aerodynamic control in the belly-down flight phase. The only issues were with the soft landing phase and that was related to fuel and engine problems. So I am absolutely not worried that SpaceX is going to figure that out soon. For me, there is only one big thing left to show: whether a starship with heat tiling can withstand the reentry.
nickik 6y ago
> At the rate SpaceX is moving at, they may have the world's largest orbital launch system by the end of the year. Bit late for that. Falcon Heavy is already the world largest orbital lanunch system. Actually, it will be the world largest orbital system ever. And on of the biggest flying machines in human history. Easily the most powerful.

by mabbo 6y ago

ncallaway 6y ago

To be fair, "Elon time" for the first orbital Starship launch was 2020. Shotwell was saying that she would bet yes on an orbital Starship in 2021. I think "Shotwell" time is generally much closer to 1:1 time than Elon time. But I agree, Starship has a fairly plausible path to being orbital by the end of the year.

ceejayoz 6y ago
I'm generally inclined to give people a break on missing 2020 deadlines.
- ncallaway 6y ago
  Sure, but Starship wasn't going to be orbital in 2020 even without the pandemic. It was a wildly unrealistic estimate to begin with that characterizes "Elon time" as a concept. Starship development has been blindly fast, and even still is a maybe on getting to orbit this year. I just don't think the pandemic pushed their timeline back significantly. I could be wrong, but that's my take from the outside looking in
  - bpodgursky 6y ago
    To be pedantic, it actually seems pretty likely the first stage could have reached LEO. There were no issues at all on ascent, and it has the fuel capacity. At one point Elon was talking about possibly testing this. But they decided not to do this, because their first priority was to get it to land, and they don't envision LEO launches using only the first stage. That will be in conjunction with the much larger second stage.
    - ncallaway 6y ago
      > At one point Elon was talking about possibly testing this. I hadn't heard about that. I know he's said that the Starship is theoretically _capable_ of SSTO w/ no payload, but I don't recall any suggestion from him that he'd test it. Elon says a lot of things though, and I probably just missed it somewhere. Any chance you know where/when he said it?
      - bpodgursky 6y ago
        Nah, you're right. That's the quote I see, and probably all he said: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1076613555091234816 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1076613555091234816. Sounds like it's capable, and the plan on Moon and Mars, but not on Earth. Must have been others speculating on the Starship test plans.
    - yellowapple 6y ago
      > and they don't envision LEO launches using only the first stage. The bragging rights of being the first to achieve SSTO seem too tempting for Musk to ignore.
  - SEJeff 6y ago
    Sometimes Elon time is spot on even if it is very optimistic. There was an interview with him in 2008 saying he thought Tesla could deliver 500,000 vehicles a year by 2020 and they basically made that even with the pandemic. My hot take was that they skydiver maneuver and landing flip would be the hardest part for starship. They've actually done that part perfectly three times now, but haven't fully nailed the landing bit.
    - ncallaway 6y ago
      > My hot take was that they skydiver maneuver and landing flip would be the hardest part for starship. I mostly agree with this. I put both the landing flip maneuver and the heat-shield system on about the same level of difficulty for Starship. I think they've worked through the hinkiest bits of the landing flip with SN10 (though with some raptor relight stability being potentially a long-ish tail of improving). I'm curious to see how their heat-shielding mechanism works out. If they can built a heat shield system that works for orbital re-entry and is rapidly refurbishable, I'll be very happy that Starship will be able to meet the extreme goals SpaceX has created for it.
      - nickik 6y ago
        Surprisingly the delay actually happened because of the structures. Not the landing. It took them way longer then anybody thought to produce the large tanks. If you look at timeline when they started in Boca, they thought they could do hops way sooner.
    - _ph_ 6y ago
      Indeed. Before the first test flight, I was skeptical whether they can control the aerodynamic flight with those flaps. While they demonstrated their capabilities to control a rocket with the engines with the F9. But the one thing that seems to be rock stable is the aerodynamic control in the belly-down flight phase. The only issues were with the soft landing phase and that was related to fuel and engine problems. So I am absolutely not worried that SpaceX is going to figure that out soon. For me, there is only one big thing left to show: whether a starship with heat tiling can withstand the reentry.

nickik 6y ago

> At the rate SpaceX is moving at, they may have the world's largest orbital launch system by the end of the year. Bit late for that. Falcon Heavy is already the world largest orbital lanunch system. Actually, it will be the world largest orbital system ever. And on of the biggest flying machines in human history. Easily the most powerful.