6 ms·

There are almost 7.7 billion people on the planet already, even with less than replacement birthrates, I think we're good on human count for the next 300 years

There are almost 7.7 billion people on the planet already, even with less than replacement birthrates, I think we're good on human count for the next 300 years or so at a minimum so unless the birth rate really catastrophically collapses. We could lose an order of magnitude of people without endangering genetic diversity, take significant load off of the environment, and frankly, quite probably improve the human condition with fewer billions of other people to compete with in the world. I recommend seeing how we can extend this trend to demographics and countries it hasn't reached yet.

ClumsyPilot 6y ago
If your fertility rate is too low, the pention system and the economy collapses
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  Perhaps a system that relies on ever-expanding populations is bad?
  - imtringued 6y ago
    It doesn't rely on ever expanding populations. It relies on retirees to be the minority which is a reasonable assumption to make. After all, everything the elderly buy has to be extracted/made via labor of the young.
rayiner 6y ago
The math is more dismal than that. With a 1.5 birth rate (common in Europe) the population drops by more than half in three generations (about 100 years). This causes the economy to collapse—stock valuations have baked in assumptions of future generations of consumers existing. But it can get worse. South Korea has a fertility rate below 1 and Taiwan is headed that way. At that rate, the population drops by almost 90% within a century.
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  Poorly constructed economies predicated on ever increasing growth have no business existing. Economies will adapt (and should! it just means more economic drag to provide for seniors until the larger, older cohort has aged out and equilibrium at a lower population level has been reached).
  - ziml77 6y ago
    It's disturbing to me that people think population must keep growing. If anything the world could stand to LOSE a significant portion of the population. Resources would be far less strained. If we built our economies on the expectation of continued population growth, then that just means there was a MASSIVE lack of forethought. But that doesn't mean the solution is to start pumping out more kids. Instead we adapt how these structures work to accommodate the flat or lessened population numbers.
    - astrange 6y ago
      This policy is called degrowth (or ecofascism) and it's not true. Resources were used far more inefficiently and many of them were used more in absolute terms when the population was smaller. It's even possible that we need this many people to do the scientific research needed to use things more efficiently. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-23/economic-growth-shouldn-t-be-a-death-sentence-for-earth?sref=3v1e8Etv https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-23/econom...
      - minkowski 6y ago
        Identifying degrowth with ecofascism isn't accurate.
    - Ekaros 6y ago
      Specially when it's clearly not true. Just look at population not in work in western countries, even outside the current pandemic situation. If we really needed more people wouldn't we have near full employment? Economy will adapt to less demand, though there will be likely pains, but money is just numbers anyway...
noofen 6y ago
There are going to be real, significant consequences from us as a Western society collectively deciding to commit civilizational suicide. Every day I see attractive, intelligent, productive, highly empathetic couples justifying their decision to not have children because of abstract "environmental concerns" amongst other decadent reasons (all highly abstract and indicative of civilization in decline, "first world luxuries" that our ancestors would scoff at) such as not being able to "afford them" [4]. Of course, "we'll just implement UBI and good socialized healthcare," but please tell me how that will work when approximately 34% [5] of the US population are tax net-negative [6], while growing exponentially? [7]. The US is going the way of South Africa or Zimbabwe, and I do not want to be around when the food runs out and the crowd is looking for a (white) scapegoat. The total fertility rate for North America is 1.7 [1]. Meanwhile, the total fertility rate for Sub-Saharan Africa is 4.7 [2]. I know the utopian liberal vision is "we're all created equal," but it simply is not true with the scientific consensus being that IQ is 50-70% heritable [3]. The brutal fact is that some people have a higher intellectual (and productive) potential than others. Rather than look at the facts, we have continued down this path of denial and as a result millions of people are suffering needlessly [8]. The movie Idiocracy is starting to look more like a tutorial instead of a humorous warning. "Let the children starve, maybe a few of them could become rocket scientists with the help of Affirmative Action, depending on how they fall on the bell curve. At least then we wouldn't have to give up our liberal free-market utopia. At least then we wouldn't have to admit... we're not born equal." I'm sure you're probably appalled at the possible solutions to this, "eugenics" is the triggering word. Genuinely ask yourself, what do you think we have now? We have a global system, thanks to Western foreign aid, Universities, corporations, and Hollywood, flat-out incentivizing the least productive, least conscientious, least innovative people on the planet to continually reproduce at a higher rate than the most productive, most empathetic, most innovative people. Do you want your grandchildren to exist in a world where they're severely outnumbered by parasites? I do not, and neither does China. While the US imports millions of low-wage workers, China's net migration rate was negative for the past 70 years [9]. They send their children to US universities to learn from the world's most fashionable and "progressive" professors, while spying on them [10]. You recommend "extending this trend [of fashionably ending our genetic lines] to demographics and countries it hasn't reached yet" while China encourages parents to have 2 children [11]. The US media loves discussing reparations [12] for slavery, while China colonizes Africa [13]. I just don't understand, how can a place so interested in growth, innovation, and future-oriented thinking be so quiet about your society committing suicide around you? Is Twitter going to save us from brain-draining our own population? [1]: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=XU https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location... [2]: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=ZG https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location... [3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ [4]: https://redd.it/lzw82g https://redd.it/lzw82g [5]: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045219 https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045219 [6]: https://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2020/03/19/fiscal-impact-by-race-in-2018/ https://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2020/03/19/fi... [7]: https://www.brookings.edu/research/what-the-2020-census-will-reveal-about-america-stagnating-growth-an-aging-population-and-youthful-diversity/#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20grew%20by%20a,and%201.7%20million%20people%2C%20respectively https://www.brookings.edu/research/what-the-2020-census-will.... [8]: https://www.sos-usa.org/about-us/where-we-work/africa/hunger-in-africa#:~:text=According%20to%20this%20measure%2C%20226.7,highest%20in%20sub%2DSaharan%20Africa https://www.sos-usa.org/about-us/where-we-work/africa/hunger.... [9]: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/net-migration#:~:text=The%20net%20migration%20rate%20for%20China%20in%202019%20was%20%2D0.247,a%201.66%25%20increase%20from%202017 https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/net-migratio.... [10]: https://www.npr.org/2019/06/28/728659124/fbi-urges-universities-to-monitor-some-chinese-students-and-scholars-in-the-u-s https://www.npr.org/2019/06/28/728659124/fbi-urges-universit... [11]: https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/china-s-two-child-policy https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/china-s-two-child-policy [12]: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/23/business/economy/reparations-slavery.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/23/business/economy/reparati... [13]: https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/chinas-investment-in-africa-cannot-buy-the-silence-of-a-continent/ https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/chinas-investment-in-africa-...

ClumsyPilot 6y ago

If your fertility rate is too low, the pention system and the economy collapses

ceejayoz 6y ago
Perhaps a system that relies on ever-expanding populations is bad?
- imtringued 6y ago
  It doesn't rely on ever expanding populations. It relies on retirees to be the minority which is a reasonable assumption to make. After all, everything the elderly buy has to be extracted/made via labor of the young.

rayiner 6y ago

The math is more dismal than that. With a 1.5 birth rate (common in Europe) the population drops by more than half in three generations (about 100 years). This causes the economy to collapse—stock valuations have baked in assumptions of future generations of consumers existing. But it can get worse. South Korea has a fertility rate below 1 and Taiwan is headed that way. At that rate, the population drops by almost 90% within a century.

toomuchtodo 6y ago
Poorly constructed economies predicated on ever increasing growth have no business existing. Economies will adapt (and should! it just means more economic drag to provide for seniors until the larger, older cohort has aged out and equilibrium at a lower population level has been reached).
- ziml77 6y ago
  It's disturbing to me that people think population must keep growing. If anything the world could stand to LOSE a significant portion of the population. Resources would be far less strained. If we built our economies on the expectation of continued population growth, then that just means there was a MASSIVE lack of forethought. But that doesn't mean the solution is to start pumping out more kids. Instead we adapt how these structures work to accommodate the flat or lessened population numbers.
  - astrange 6y ago
    This policy is called degrowth (or ecofascism) and it's not true. Resources were used far more inefficiently and many of them were used more in absolute terms when the population was smaller. It's even possible that we need this many people to do the scientific research needed to use things more efficiently. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-23/economic-growth-shouldn-t-be-a-death-sentence-for-earth?sref=3v1e8Etv https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-23/econom...
    - minkowski 6y ago
      Identifying degrowth with ecofascism isn't accurate.
  - Ekaros 6y ago
    Specially when it's clearly not true. Just look at population not in work in western countries, even outside the current pandemic situation. If we really needed more people wouldn't we have near full employment? Economy will adapt to less demand, though there will be likely pains, but money is just numbers anyway...

noofen 6y ago

There are going to be real, significant consequences from us as a Western society collectively deciding to commit civilizational suicide. Every day I see attractive, intelligent, productive, highly empathetic couples justifying their decision to not have children because of abstract "environmental concerns" amongst other decadent reasons (all highly abstract and indicative of civilization in decline, "first world luxuries" that our ancestors would scoff at) such as not being able to "afford them" [4]. Of course, "we'll just implement UBI and good socialized healthcare," but please tell me how that will work when approximately 34% [5] of the US population are tax net-negative [6], while growing exponentially? [7]. The US is going the way of South Africa or Zimbabwe, and I do not want to be around when the food runs out and the crowd is looking for a (white) scapegoat. The total fertility rate for North America is 1.7 [1]. Meanwhile, the total fertility rate for Sub-Saharan Africa is 4.7 [2]. I know the utopian liberal vision is "we're all created equal," but it simply is not true with the scientific consensus being that IQ is 50-70% heritable [3]. The brutal fact is that some people have a higher intellectual (and productive) potential than others. Rather than look at the facts, we have continued down this path of denial and as a result millions of people are suffering needlessly [8]. The movie Idiocracy is starting to look more like a tutorial instead of a humorous warning. "Let the children starve, maybe a few of them could become rocket scientists with the help of Affirmative Action, depending on how they fall on the bell curve. At least then we wouldn't have to give up our liberal free-market utopia. At least then we wouldn't have to admit... we're not born equal." I'm sure you're probably appalled at the possible solutions to this, "eugenics" is the triggering word. Genuinely ask yourself, what do you think we have now? We have a global system, thanks to Western foreign aid, Universities, corporations, and Hollywood, flat-out incentivizing the least productive, least conscientious, least innovative people on the planet to continually reproduce at a higher rate than the most productive, most empathetic, most innovative people. Do you want your grandchildren to exist in a world where they're severely outnumbered by parasites? I do not, and neither does China. While the US imports millions of low-wage workers, China's net migration rate was negative for the past 70 years [9]. They send their children to US universities to learn from the world's most fashionable and "progressive" professors, while spying on them [10]. You recommend "extending this trend [of fashionably ending our genetic lines] to demographics and countries it hasn't reached yet" while China encourages parents to have 2 children [11]. The US media loves discussing reparations [12] for slavery, while China colonizes Africa [13]. I just don't understand, how can a place so interested in growth, innovation, and future-oriented thinking be so quiet about your society committing suicide around you? Is Twitter going to save us from brain-draining our own population? [1]: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=XU https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location... [2]: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=ZG https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location... [3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ [4]: https://redd.it/lzw82g https://redd.it/lzw82g [5]: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045219 https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045219 [6]: https://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2020/03/19/fiscal-impact-by-race-in-2018/ https://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2020/03/19/fi... [7]: https://www.brookings.edu/research/what-the-2020-census-will-reveal-about-america-stagnating-growth-an-aging-population-and-youthful-diversity/#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20grew%20by%20a,and%201.7%20million%20people%2C%20respectively https://www.brookings.edu/research/what-the-2020-census-will.... [8]: https://www.sos-usa.org/about-us/where-we-work/africa/hunger-in-africa#:~:text=According%20to%20this%20measure%2C%20226.7,highest%20in%20sub%2DSaharan%20Africa https://www.sos-usa.org/about-us/where-we-work/africa/hunger.... [9]: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/net-migration#:~:text=The%20net%20migration%20rate%20for%20China%20in%202019%20was%20%2D0.247,a%201.66%25%20increase%20from%202017 https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/net-migratio.... [10]: https://www.npr.org/2019/06/28/728659124/fbi-urges-universities-to-monitor-some-chinese-students-and-scholars-in-the-u-s https://www.npr.org/2019/06/28/728659124/fbi-urges-universit... [11]: https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/china-s-two-child-policy https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/china-s-two-child-policy [12]: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/23/business/economy/reparations-slavery.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/23/business/economy/reparati... [13]: https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/chinas-investment-in-africa-cannot-buy-the-silence-of-a-continent/ https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/chinas-investment-in-africa-...