5 ms·

More people are leaving California currently than coming to it. Perhaps that isn't a biblical level exodus quite yet, but it's coming with time. Just be patient

More people are leaving California currently than coming to it. Perhaps that isn't a biblical level exodus quite yet, but it's coming with time. Just be patient. Rome didn't fall in a day.

seppin 6y ago
California has 40 million people, losing 10k a month isn't a big deal.
seanmcdirmid 6y ago
California still was at positive population increase before the pandemic because of foreign immigration. Also, Texas had more people than California just back in 1940, it isn’t weird that it’s huge growth over the last 80 years has come to an end.
- rsj_hn 6y ago
  I would say a population decline for any big state is a bit unusual, no?
  - seanmcdirmid 6y ago
    Nope. Look at New York. Anyways, if you want to see the reality, do a Google for “California population”, it will include Florida and Texas in a graph that goes back to 1920.
    - rsj_hn 6y ago
      The exodus from NY was pretty remarkable and widely commented on. It was devastating for the state and led to the bankruptcy of NYC.
      - seanmcdirmid 6y ago
        And...where is NYC today? Definitely not a desolate bankrupt city with falling property values. Also, San Francisco and the Bay Area are definitely not immune to the boom-bust cycle, there have been busts before and there will be busts again, just like any other boom towns.
        deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
        rsj_hn 6y ago
        >Where is NYC? Mostly boarded up
        seanmcdirmid 6y ago
        You wish, maybe? Anyways, conservatives need places like NYC and California to fail to validate their ideologies, that they keep thriving and booming must be incredibly frustrating to them.
rsj_hn 6y ago
Yes, the subtle shift to "net" population change is again hiding the story. change in population = migration from rest of word - californians leaving the state + births - deaths In California, that means existing residents are moving out, people from the rest of the world are moving in. That has led to record low growth rates in 2019 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/05/california-population-growth-rate-hit-record-low-last-year-237146 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/05/california-populati...) and an estimated population decline in 2020 (https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/California-s-population-may-be-declining-15843202.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/California-s-pop...) In some sense, it doesn't matter whether population goes up or down, we should not have a policy that population must always go up. But for CA the problem is that wealthier people are leaving while poorer people are moving in. This is exarcebated by a policy of high income taxes and low real estate taxes -- real estate is much less mobile than people. And this is further exarcerbated by a policy of very progressive income taxes, which makes the state budget sensitive to a small number of wealthier households leaving.

More people are leaving California currently than coming to it. Perhaps that isn't a biblical level exodus quite yet, but it's coming with time. Just be patient. Rome didn't fall in a day.

seppin 6y ago

California has 40 million people, losing 10k a month isn't a big deal.

seanmcdirmid 6y ago

California still was at positive population increase before the pandemic because of foreign immigration. Also, Texas had more people than California just back in 1940, it isn’t weird that it’s huge growth over the last 80 years has come to an end.

rsj_hn 6y ago
I would say a population decline for any big state is a bit unusual, no?
- seanmcdirmid 6y ago
  Nope. Look at New York. Anyways, if you want to see the reality, do a Google for “California population”, it will include Florida and Texas in a graph that goes back to 1920.
  - rsj_hn 6y ago
    The exodus from NY was pretty remarkable and widely commented on. It was devastating for the state and led to the bankruptcy of NYC.
    - seanmcdirmid 6y ago
      And...where is NYC today? Definitely not a desolate bankrupt city with falling property values. Also, San Francisco and the Bay Area are definitely not immune to the boom-bust cycle, there have been busts before and there will be busts again, just like any other boom towns.
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
      - rsj_hn 6y ago
        >Where is NYC? Mostly boarded up
        seanmcdirmid 6y ago
        You wish, maybe? Anyways, conservatives need places like NYC and California to fail to validate their ideologies, that they keep thriving and booming must be incredibly frustrating to them.

rsj_hn 6y ago

Yes, the subtle shift to "net" population change is again hiding the story. change in population = migration from rest of word - californians leaving the state + births - deaths In California, that means existing residents are moving out, people from the rest of the world are moving in. That has led to record low growth rates in 2019 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/05/california-population-growth-rate-hit-record-low-last-year-237146 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/05/california-populati...) and an estimated population decline in 2020 (https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/California-s-population-may-be-declining-15843202.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/California-s-pop...) In some sense, it doesn't matter whether population goes up or down, we should not have a policy that population must always go up. But for CA the problem is that wealthier people are leaving while poorer people are moving in. This is exarcebated by a policy of high income taxes and low real estate taxes -- real estate is much less mobile than people. And this is further exarcerbated by a policy of very progressive income taxes, which makes the state budget sensitive to a small number of wealthier households leaving.