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TSMC at the head of history’s tide: two high walls and one sharp knife
- ggm 6y agoInteresting read. A little "florid" perhaps, some turns of phrase probably don't survive translation. I don't envy anyone who works the midnight shift in a 24/7 r&d boilerhouse. Liver eater indeed. Given US strategic concerns in VLSI we are probably going to see another slightly different chapter in this story:TSMC being induced to bring core IPR inside domestic US production, presumably for cash injection and guarantees to Taiwan for their strategic interests being guarded.
- nickff 6y agoTaiwan would be foolish to believe such American promises. The USA made similar promises to Ukraine in the Budapest memorandum (under Clinton), and subsequently did not fulfill its obligations (under Obama).
- pas 6y agoCould you be a bit more specific in what agreement the Obama admin did not honor? Which parts and how?
- asadhaider 6y agoThe Wiki article of the memorandum, particularly the Breach section, contains dates and overview of info on this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...
- nickff 6y agoThere is a Wikipedia page on the Budapest memorandum, which outlines its content, and at least one breach: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur...
- wyuenho 6y agoHe's implying Euromaiden in 2014 as a EU and US instigated event to erode Ukraine's political independence, thus, justifying Russia's invasion of the Crimea. We should know by now whenever region moves away from an authoritarian power's orbit is regarded by these powers' as some kind of foreign influence and subversive operation. They think it's impossible that the people themselves actually don't like authoritarian governments. It's the same in Russia, China, Iran, North Korea etc etc etc.
- dannyw 6y agoNothing special to authoritarian governments. Both the left and right in the USA like to believe it's foreign influence than half the country having (sometimes drastically) different views. The city/rural biases don't help either as you mostly see people with similar views to you.
- wyuenho 6y agoThis is a new phenomenon in the US, mostly because of party elder denial.
- earthboundkid 6y ago"Euromaiden" is a funny typo.
- sergeykish 6y agoRussia puppet was the reason of Euromaidan. Putins rating raised to 86% after Crimea annexation. Ukraine joined West in propaganda. It's just a fuel for informational autocracy.
- mytailorisrich 6y agoEurope and the US never wanted to be forced to intervene in Ukraine, hence why they were not in a rush to consider Ukraine's push to join NATO. The Budapest memorandum does not make any promises to help. Regarding Crimea, the breach is Russia's, not the West's.
- baybal2 6y ago> The Budapest memorandum does not make any promises to help. It does, go read the text
- mytailorisrich 6y agoI have. So where does it?
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- pierrebai 6y agoI think it refers to this: Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used". Obviously, Russia did not use nuclear weapon... but maybe the fact that Russia has nuclear weapon and invaded Crimea means Ukraine is under threat of nuclear weapons...
- mytailorisrich 6y agoThat's not a promise to send any help or to help militarily. It just says that if Ukraine is nuked (quite an extreme scenario to start with) they'll ask the Security Council (where Russia has a veto) to do something about it. You can argue that this constitutes a promise to 'help', but frankly sending a "get well soon" card would be more helpful. Hence my first comment: The US and the West do not want to be forced to intervene and thus they never made any promise, binding or otherwise, to. The UN did vote a resolution on Ukraine and Crimea in 2014. As I also wrote, it is Russia that breached the memorandum but not respecting Ukraine's borders as they were but, tough.
- cbozeman 6y agoThe United States doesn't "need" Ukraine in the way the United States "needs" access to the most advanced digital chip creation technology in the world. If Ukraine disappears tomorrow, we lose the next Milla Jovovich and Mila Kunis. A bummer, yes, but not an end to our way of life.
- baybal2 6y agoIf Ukraine disappears tomorrow, Western Europe will follow, and with that the only US platz d'arme in Asia against Russia, and the only remaining US nuclear allies. Following this, don't think you will be able to leisurely spend the remaining of your life. Everybody down to your granny will be forcefully drafted, and mobilised.
- ohgodplsno 6y ago>If Ukraine disappears tomorrow, Western Europe will follow Ah yes, the dreaded invasion of Western Europe by Russia, with their 90% outdated tanks and planes that could be held back by a single major European army. A terrifying prospects that haunts every european at night.
- baybal2 6y ago> Ah yes, the dreaded invasion of Western Europe by Russia, with their 90% outdated tanks and planes that could be held back by a single major European army. Tanks - Russia: 10000+ Tanks - Germany: 300 + 1200 US army tanks
- ohgodplsno 6y agoFirstly, it's quite disingenious to take Germany as the example when they have never had a large army in the past 50 years and have not been a military power. Let's compare what is comparable: Russia and France use about the same percentage of their budget for military purposes: 9% for France, 11% for Russia. Tanks - Russia - T72 - 2000 tanks, 7000 in reserve - T90 - 350 active, 200 reserve - T14 Armata (i.e., top of the line) - 100 planned, 20+ active. Tanks - France - Leclerc (top of the line) - 222 active, 200 upgraded to XLR-Standard - AMX10/20 - 300 Planes - Russia - SU57 - 1. - SU35S (refurbished Su27 from 2003) - 97 - SU34 (from 1990) - 120 - Mig35 - 4. - Planes from before 1980 - 500 Planes - France - Rafale B/C/M - 150 - Mirage 2000 - 120 So, even if Russia intends to throw tanks from 1970 at Europe to have them be utterly crushed by aviation, a single country from Europe stands more or less toe to toe with it.
- fiftyfifty 6y agoChina will never take Taiwan with military force, at least not anytime soon. Any kind of military move against Taiwan would endanger the real value of Taiwan which is companies like TSMC. China will continue to work to increase it's political and economic power while weakening the US's and other western countries influence until such a time that they can take Taiwan with little or no force at all.
- onepointsixC 6y agoThe difference is that the Ukrainian invasion had far smaller implications to US interests than an invasion of Taiwan would have.
- mytailorisrich 6y agoInducing TSMC to bring production capability into the US is all benefits for the US but strategically it is bad for Taiwan. Indeed, if there are enough fabs in the US then the continued availability of fabs in Taiwan is much less important for the US, and thus Taiwan becomes less important for the US, which obviously has consequences in terms of any US involvement in defence of Taiwan in case of a military conflict with the mainland. This is the US protecting themselves. But Taiwan and TSMC don't really have a choice.
- dannyw 6y agoThis is true. We have also seen such rapid policy flip flops in the past 5 years, it is untrustable. Even if you consider yourselves a close ally.
- MrBuddyCasino 6y agoI don't think the plan is to move significant production capacity to the US. Apple and AMD would still depend on Taiwanese capacity. I can imagine two reasons for the US plant: - political capital ("bringing hi-tec manufacturing back") - national security ("manufacturing a few miltec chips")
- baybal2 6y agoIt Taiwanese industry goes belly up, a single fab in US will make zero difference. A big chunk of semi industry is single vendor, including consumables. It happens every time when there is an earthquake in Taiwan: the entirety of semi industry, in, and outside of the country stands still for a few weeks.
- gumby 6y agoIt can be good for TSMC, due to increased revenue, forestalling competition, reduced risk (earthquake, geopolitical etc). Whether these things are good for Taiwan at large is a matter of discussion; the decision is not obvious.
- luplex 6y agoFascinating. Stories like this really make me want to learn Chinese and/or move there for a while. The story highlights how they were able to benefit from US culture and education, to the point where they now took the lead. I wonder how the West could benefit from Asian culture.
- dannyw 6y agoThe cultural belief that other countries do things better is what you describe. It's pretty Australian and American to think your country is the best at most things.
- techdragon 6y agoAs an Australian... I have no idea where this idea comes from. American Exceptionalism has historically been a thing, but other than a general impression that equipment which have been designed and built locally in Australia tend to be above average assuming that it wasn’t built to be the cheapest... the idea that “our stuff is the best” has never really been a thing, except maybe Beer... and only among people who are obviously fans of that beer. Edit: This might be an east coast vs west coast of Australia thing. I’m from Western Australia and I just realised that this might be more of an east coast cultural thing...
- igravious 6y ago> the idea that “our stuff is the best” has never really been a thing, except maybe Beer... and only among people who are obviously fans of that beer. Are you saying that Ozzies regard their beer as world-beating (or are you saying the opposite) – I can't parse that sentence …
- goatinaboat 6y agoAre you saying that Ozzies regard their beer as world-beating Australians are very proud of their flagship beers, Fosters and Castlemaine XXXX, but they are not considered premium products in any country with a beer-drinking tradition.
- nomay 6y agoI'm surprised to see a typical Chinese "self-media" article being shared here, coz I myself see these as nothing more than gossip blogs, so please take them with huge amount of salt or just avoid it. At least in my experience these are highly refined entertainment product with little to no regard to what's fact, opinion and pure made-up bullshit, their only goal is to maximize click numbers, thus more often than not written by internet marketing gurus rather than ones with real and deep domain knowledge, influencer is a more apt name for them. The owner of this self-media publicly pledging allegiance to Huawei coz he got scholarships from them also didn't help with it.
- chx 6y agoNonetheless , I was unaware of TSMC and ASML making a lithography breakthrough before EUV and so that at least is valuable information.
- velikhan 6y agoThat part of the story checks out too: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immersion_lithography https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immersion_lithography https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burn-Jeng_Lin https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burn-Jeng_Lin Myself, am amused how the translators did not consult English sources and also how the writers of the wikipedia article probably didn’t know about the analogy to immersion microscope objectives. This industry is curiously insular.
- MangoCoffee 6y agoa lot people on hacker news believed if you throw enough money into something like China is doing with semi industry that somehow you can get your fab into a leading fab. you can't just build something with off the shelves equipment. if that's the case then China big fund in 2014 (before trade war, China already pouring money into semi industry) already bearing fruits but SMIC have to poach TSMC engineers to get them into 14nm. leading foundry like TSMC pour in a lot of money into R&D with their partners. TSMC's ecosystem along is unrivaled. there is also the trust issue. TSMC's main and only business is making chip for their customers unlike Samsung which is a Conglomerate. what the author said about Apple is true(move away from Samsung's supply chain). that's why Apple is now a core customer of TSMC. edit: i recall a interview with Morris Chang by a Chinese reporter. she bring up the question about the Chinese big fund. she say if Chinese govrt throw its weight behind the semi industry. it will over take TSMC. Chang said you can't buy "experiences" it will take time for Chinese fab to learn all the mistakes and gain the know-hows. there's a lot going into the production than simply buying semi equipment and somehow magically you can get to the yield level that'll be profitable. Intel's 10nm yield problem is the example of that. sorry, English is not my first language.
- juicyjuicytemp 6y agoSome deeper context on how Morris Chang ended up being in charge of TSMC: https://twitter.com/SahilBloom/status/1353369463190560773?s=19 https://twitter.com/SahilBloom/status/1353369463190560773?s=... TSMC vs Intel: https://stratechery.com/2021/intel-problems/ https://stratechery.com/2021/intel-problems/
- antattack 6y agoPropaganda at it's best (he refused outright, yet visited Samsung...just to have a look): "Morris Chang was now struggling to get sales/orders, but he was tired of being second and third, and he firmly refused Samsung. Lee Kun-hee did not give up, and invited him to visit Samsung. Morris Chang readily accepted, and after visiting the factory for half a day, he even praised Samsung's production capacity as "impressive", but still refused to leave TSMC. Seeing his firm attitude, Lee Kun-hee had to give up."
- Rafuino 6y agoYeah, I stopped reading at that exact point.
- andy_ppp 6y agoI've seen a few of these on Google docs recently - is there a way they can turn the obnoxious margins off on mobile, it's not possible to read on there with 1 inch of padding on each side of the phone....
- eternauta3k 6y agoUse reader mode on firefox, or send it to Pocket
- gumby 6y agoSafari reader mode improves things tremendously.
- captain_price7 6y ago> On the date Chang admitted TSMC’s disadvantage, its stock rose by 8%. Investors believed that Morris was very angry and there would be serious consequences. Indeed, TSMC started preparing for a multi-front counterattack.
- lawrenceyan 6y agoI've seen usage of Google Docs as a generic method for publicizing articles increase a great deal over the past year or two. Especially from China / greater Asia to a lesser extent. Why?
- yorwba 6y agoGoogle Docs makes it easy to add annotations to parts of a text, which you can see used here by the author to add sidenotes, as a comment section and by readers to suggest improvements to the translation. I'm not aware of it being some general trend, though; I've only seen Jeff Ding use it like that. Could you point to some other writers using Google Docs as a generic publishing method?
- lawrenceyan 6y agoThe vast majority of publications from Hong Kong protestors are through Google Docs for example: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ZrIiXypVUvPIRs9JG8AsU55FkLsz81pqZstKQcbsAHc https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ZrIiXypVUvPIRs9JG8AsU55F...
- yorwba 6y agoInteresting! I checked the comment history, which has a lot of activity. Most of it is spam suggestions, but I also spotted a few that were accepted. I guess they're also using Google Docs for its collaborative features.
- lawrenceyan 6y agoOh yeah, don't worry about that. Just switch to view only mode if you want to read the actual document. Edit: If you don't know how, here's a handy tip. Just add "/preview" to the end of any doc to link directly to it's view only mode. So for the document I linked above, it would be: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ZrIiXypVUvPIRs9JG8AsU55FkLsz81pqZstKQcbsAHc/preview https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ZrIiXypVUvPIRs9JG8AsU55F...
- rasz 6y agoTaiwan population is around 24 million. It might be cheaper for US to offer to relocate whole country to the continental North America. Give everyone citizenship and free land, move TSMC to Texas. Make Taiwan island a huge military base.
- 1980phipsi 6y agoTaiwan is bigger than Maryland. We need a military base bigger than Maryland?
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- bee_rider 6y agoTaiwan apparently stays between ~50F and ~100F, and the people are used to living near the coast. Putting them in Texas would be cruel. Although California has housing issues, transplanted Taiwan can be put on fresh soil -- no NIMBYs, and the housing development policy for Taiwan, CA can be written from the ground up to avoid previous mistakes.
- sbierwagen 6y agoWould you rather live in Texas, or under PRC occupation?
- chenhungh 6y agoNo, thank you. But no. No way.
- bee_rider 6y agoTexas is a ridiculous idea, but how about Connecticut? Near the coast, comfortable 8-24C temperature range, not too far from the US education and business hubs.