4 ms·

Housing can at most grow as l^3, population can grow as e^n. If you want to be withing t hours of place x then you need transport systems that travel at l/t km/

by konjin 6y ago

Housing can at most grow as l^3, population can grow as e^n. If you want to be withing t hours of place x then you need transport systems that travel at l/t km/h. Until people have two children or less population will always outpace housing. Anything else is wishful thinking.

chii 6y ago
that's funny because many cities have a replacement rate less than 2, not counting immigration. And even with population growth at e^n, the constants matter in the analysis. l^3 growth may be enough until humans reach space faring.
- konjin 6y ago
  Space only grows as l^3 and the speed of light. Any species that does not limit the number of surviving children per parent to two will run out of space no matter what they do.
  - chii 6y ago
    the absurdity of that argument can be shown by demonstrating that if the rate of population grows so fast that it outstrips the l^3 at the speed of light, the biomass would just collapse into a black hole. the point is that human's growth is slowing, and the fact that space can open up means that as long as humanity reaches being a space faring species, it won't really be a problem.
ryan_j_naughton 6y ago
> population can grow as e^n Population growth is slowing worldwide and is below replacement in all major developed countries. Thus, your e^n is only applicable if n is between 0 and 1! Sure, desirable cities can grow faster than the overall average, so let's put that at somewhere between linear and quadratic -- heavily towards the linear. Even so, the ability to build at I^3 can easily outstrip that demand with the right policies. Furthermore, remote work can spread out demand. We are seeing that right now with the pandemic. I believe that the pandemic will be one of the greatest accelerators of globalization due to it's enabling remote work. As further proof of the slow pace of population growth in developed countries eventually causing an impact on the housing market, look at Japan. "Government statistics as of 2018 consider 13.6 percent of properties in the country to be ghost houses. Put another way: By 2040, the total size of abandoned properties in Japan is estimated to equal the land size of Austria." [1] [1] https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/japanese-ghost-houses https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/japanese-ghost-houses

by konjin 6y ago

chii 6y ago

that's funny because many cities have a replacement rate less than 2, not counting immigration. And even with population growth at e^n, the constants matter in the analysis. l^3 growth may be enough until humans reach space faring.

konjin 6y ago
Space only grows as l^3 and the speed of light. Any species that does not limit the number of surviving children per parent to two will run out of space no matter what they do.
- chii 6y ago
  the absurdity of that argument can be shown by demonstrating that if the rate of population grows so fast that it outstrips the l^3 at the speed of light, the biomass would just collapse into a black hole. the point is that human's growth is slowing, and the fact that space can open up means that as long as humanity reaches being a space faring species, it won't really be a problem.

ryan_j_naughton 6y ago

> population can grow as e^n Population growth is slowing worldwide and is below replacement in all major developed countries. Thus, your e^n is only applicable if n is between 0 and 1! Sure, desirable cities can grow faster than the overall average, so let's put that at somewhere between linear and quadratic -- heavily towards the linear. Even so, the ability to build at I^3 can easily outstrip that demand with the right policies. Furthermore, remote work can spread out demand. We are seeing that right now with the pandemic. I believe that the pandemic will be one of the greatest accelerators of globalization due to it's enabling remote work. As further proof of the slow pace of population growth in developed countries eventually causing an impact on the housing market, look at Japan. "Government statistics as of 2018 consider 13.6 percent of properties in the country to be ghost houses. Put another way: By 2040, the total size of abandoned properties in Japan is estimated to equal the land size of Austria." [1] [1] https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/japanese-ghost-houses https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/japanese-ghost-houses