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> with almost all arable land already being farmed Source? I don't think this is a matter of fact.

corty 6y ago
Well, we are currently removing the last big forests like Amazonas for agriculture. Have the population double again, then it's gone for certain.
- saddlerustle 6y ago
  Agricultural land use only went up ~10% as the world went from from ~4 billion to ~8 billion people. It has been almost entirely offset by increased agricultural productivity.
  - corty 6y ago
    And how much can we increase agri productivity? Will it grow exponentially along with the population? Otherwise, we will need that land.
    - saddlerustle 6y ago
      Assuming increasing wealth and technology development, infinitely, because there's crops we can grow with no land assuming very cheap energy
    - throwaway316943 6y ago
      Population growth hasn’t been exponential for half a century. Get your facts straight.
      - corty 6y ago
        It has, the only obscuring factor is China's one-child-policy and Europe's and North America's decline. The rest is still very much in exponential growth. Only the last 20 years at best saw some possible downward trend, but there have been similar variations before. So that's like reading the climate from small changes in weather, a fool's errand. Until there is a firm trend for a shrinking or stagnating population, all the small variations just lead to wishful thinking like yours. You cannot just ignore math and biology, populations will grow exponentially until they hit a limit.
dmurray 6y ago
It's true in a no-true-Scotsman way. There aren't vast tracts of land that are fertile and have been prepared for farming, but are being neglected, because human economic activity easily expands to fill the space available. So with the exception of some parks, sports facilities, etc, most fields in the world are being used for farming. On the other hand, there's plenty of land that is nearly suitable for growing sustenance crops but just needs a little preparation. We don't always favour converting that land to agricultural use, e.g. in the Amazon rain forest. However, the claim misses the point for a different reason. Even if all arable land is being farmed, it's very far from being exploited to its maximum capacity. In terms of calories per hectare per year, much of that land could be improved tenfold or more with a switch of crops or farming methods, if the economics demanded it and potatoes became as expensive as steak.

Well, we are currently removing the last big forests like Amazonas for agriculture. Have the population double again, then it's gone for certain.

saddlerustle 6y ago
Agricultural land use only went up ~10% as the world went from from ~4 billion to ~8 billion people. It has been almost entirely offset by increased agricultural productivity.
- corty 6y ago
  And how much can we increase agri productivity? Will it grow exponentially along with the population? Otherwise, we will need that land.
  - saddlerustle 6y ago
    Assuming increasing wealth and technology development, infinitely, because there's crops we can grow with no land assuming very cheap energy
  - throwaway316943 6y ago
    Population growth hasn’t been exponential for half a century. Get your facts straight.
    - corty 6y ago
      It has, the only obscuring factor is China's one-child-policy and Europe's and North America's decline. The rest is still very much in exponential growth. Only the last 20 years at best saw some possible downward trend, but there have been similar variations before. So that's like reading the climate from small changes in weather, a fool's errand. Until there is a firm trend for a shrinking or stagnating population, all the small variations just lead to wishful thinking like yours. You cannot just ignore math and biology, populations will grow exponentially until they hit a limit.

dmurray 6y ago

It's true in a no-true-Scotsman way. There aren't vast tracts of land that are fertile and have been prepared for farming, but are being neglected, because human economic activity easily expands to fill the space available. So with the exception of some parks, sports facilities, etc, most fields in the world are being used for farming. On the other hand, there's plenty of land that is nearly suitable for growing sustenance crops but just needs a little preparation. We don't always favour converting that land to agricultural use, e.g. in the Amazon rain forest. However, the claim misses the point for a different reason. Even if all arable land is being farmed, it's very far from being exploited to its maximum capacity. In terms of calories per hectare per year, much of that land could be improved tenfold or more with a switch of crops or farming methods, if the economics demanded it and potatoes became as expensive as steak.