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iCloud’s Real Purpose is to Kill Windows

156 points by Deprecated 15y ago

Total_Meltdown 15y ago
I think we need to realize that PCs (laptops or desktops) and mobile devices (tablets and mobile phones) are good at different things, and going forward will be used for different things. For example, I'm sure everyone (especially on this site) has noticed that software development is kind of a big thing. I don't see any indication that I'll be developing any software on a mobile device any time soon (especially not an iOS device, as far as I know running user-written code is still against the App Store TOS). As for the "three years" projection, I'm not sure what the article is saying. Our (mobile) data will be in the cloud within three years? Probably. That Apple will kill Microsoft in three years? Absolutely not. No way. Don't underestimate the power of inertia. Even if Apple manages to entirely kill Microsoft's consumer market share (unlikely) they can survive off enterprise customers just fine. I mean, what do you use on a Mac to compose documents? Word. Are there any others? (I don't have a Mac, so feel free to correct me if I'm mistaken.) I don't think PCs are going anywhere. People will always need to get serious work done, and larger systems will always be better at that than smaller systems of the same era, if only for the sheer amount of numbers they can crunch. Mobiles are great products with a tremendous amount of utility, but they're complements, not substitutes.
- TomOfTTB 15y ago
  Cringely is in the business of trying to look prophetic so he makes wild predictions like this to get attention. I don't think anyone, Apple included, things the Personal Computer is going anywhere for the very reasons you laid out above. Even with a wireless keyboard and a Monitor hooked up the iPad isn't sufficient for any serious writing, coding, photo editing, etc... You still need a PC for that. I think Apple laid out its position very clearly yesterday. The PC isn't going away it's just being demoted. It isn't t he center of your digital universe anymore. But that doesn't mean it isn't useful.
  - nostromo 15y ago
    You're exactly right -- Jobs said himself that PCs will be like trucks of the automobile universe and will always be around -- they just won't be used by as many people as often. Here's the clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_Dlq4B56CI http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_Dlq4B56CI
  - MaysonL 15y ago
    Cringely is in the business of trying to look prophetic so he makes wild predictions like this to get attention. Yeah, but in the long run, he may be right. Has peak Windows occurred? It's not quite clear, but it may have, with the total PC business going at -1% yoy. And when Windows/Office sales start showing big year over year declines, Microsoft will be hurting very badly, if they haven't developed some other revenue source.
    - recoiledsnake 15y ago
      Peak Windows? Huh? Noy even close. The sales rate has reduced due to many reasons unrelated to Apple, saturation is high, repalcement rate is low because they are fast enough for many years etc. etc. Measuring installed base makes more sense than pure sales. So the PC business going at -1% yoy is not really a good metric. MS is still making money hand over fist, look at their financials.
- SoftwareMaven 15y ago
  I mean, what do you use on a Mac to compose documents? Word. No. I use Pages (part of Apple's iWork) for almost everything. If I need Word comparability, I open LibreOffice. Given how seamless the iWork experience is becoming between iDevices (which will be including Macs), how much cheaper iWork is, and how much better the iWork user experience is (they don't have 20 years of feature-cruft littering the interface), there is absolutely no reason for a home Mac user to use Office and few reasons (usually an iron-fisted corporate IT group) for a corporate Mac user to use it.
  - evilduck 15y ago
    Google Docs for me on OSX. The no-hassle availability anywhere without an install covers 95% of my document creation needs, the fact that everything's autosaved to the cloud and can be collaborated on, versioned, and exported keeps me coming back, and I don't have to worry about software version compatibility with anyone I share with which is a killer feature. Anything that requires style or aesthetics gets drafted in Google Docs and then imported into Pages or Keynote for finishing touches, both of which are lightyears ahead of Word or Powerpoint in that regard (at least for 2007/Win 2008/OSX MS Office releases).
    - Total_Meltdown 15y ago
      Google Docs is Office's closest competitor, but not outside individuals and small organizations, simply BECAUSE it's all stored on "the cloud". BitBucket and GitHub have the same problem. It's not that they're not good products, it's that there are many, many, many very large companies that want to keep their data to themselves. And by the way, being "encrypted" on the cloud doesn't usually mean what most people seem to think it means. Example: http://www.informationweek.com/news/storage/security/229500683 http://www.informationweek.com/news/storage/security/2295006...
  - eropple 15y ago
    No. I use Pages (part of Apple's iWork) for almost everything. If I need Word comparability, I open LibreOffice. And if you need to do something remotely complex, neither works. Pages is decent for the very baseline word processing; OpenOffice is good for very little of anything. The overwhelming majority of people use Office because what you call "cruft" is what other people call "important".
- JonnieCache 15y ago
  I think we can all envisage a future where we are exclusively using web-based office suites on post-PC devices. A lot of people are already doing this. What I can't imagine is a world where we are developing those web-based office suites on the same post-PC devices that they are deployed to. Try and imagine using XCode on a tablet under iOS all day. Doesn't sound very appealing does it? Or autocad, or solidworks or arcGIS, or any number of other industrial applications. For the PC to disappear, somebody is going to need to define a whole new category of much more powerful post-PC devices. I can envisage a superpowered tablet with a bluetooth keyboard that wirelessly links to any nearby display, but that doesn't sound very post-PC to me. And it doesn't answer the question of how to develop UIs for tasks of irreducible complexity without violating iOS's mandatory UX simplicity.
  - stcredzero 15y ago
    Try and imagine using XCode on a tablet under iOS all day. Doesn't sound very appealing does it? No one needs to supplant the workstation form-factor. What we're in the process of is realizing that there are tons of other opportunities in mobile form factors. Try to think of all the workplace activities that involve taking down data on pieces of paper and taking them over to a computer where they get entered. Try to think of all the times when people read off information from a specialized instrument and enter it into a computer. All of these are opportunities for mobile computing.
    - JonnieCache 15y ago
      Totally agreed, one of the biggest industrial users of tablets is in hospitals, which is exactly what you're talking about. Lots of people do seem to think that workstations will be supplanted though. So much hype about the "death of the PC," the "post-PC era," although I accept that "post" doesnt necessarily imply a world where that thing is totally gone.
- rimantas 15y ago
  > I don't see any indication that I'll be developing any > software on a mobile device any time soon There is more to development than coding. See e.g. http://www.appcooker.com/ http://www.appcooker.com/
- tintin 15y ago
  Very true! I like to have my documents on my own computer creating backups by myself. There might be people who like to have there documents in the clouds but others don't. I'm an Ubuntu user and never used Ubuntu One.
programminggeek 15y ago
iCloud is a great idea, so is Google Apps, so is Office 365. None are designed to "kill Windows". iCloud's real purpose is to sell more Apple hardware, not kill Windows. Hurting Windows sales would simply be a side effect. It's a smart move to put iPads and iPhones on equal footing as the Mac in that regard. If your docs, pictures, apps, and music are all on iCloud, your computers become disposable digital devices. Want a new one? Buy it, all your files are already there waiting for you. The disposable digital device is a huge idea. Google, Apple, Amazon, and HP all benefit hugely from disposable devices because they all profit hugely from the mass distribution and churn of them. Mobile has a faster consumer turnover than PC's. For example, my parents have had the same desktop computer running Windows XP since um, 2004 or so I think. Before that they bought a computer in 1995. Most people get a new phone every 1-2 years. So, upgrade once every 5-10 years or every 2? Which do you think makes Apple more money? If all your files magically move between devices, and the devices keep getting cheaper, people will naturally upgrade faster. This hurts the Windows monopoly for sure, but the point is not to kill Windows. The point is to increase their own lock-in and device sell rates. Selling more devices increases profits. That's the point.
- spenrose 15y ago
  Upvoted b/c I think your rejection of Cringely is right, but the reason is different. Jobs/Apple are not in this for the money. They simply believe that iOS + cloud is a better way to compute.
  - bingaman 15y ago
    Hahahaha
  - SoftwareMaven 15y ago
    Your comment feels like it is giving Jobs and Apple a bit more altruism than I think they deserve. They are absolutely in it for the money, but I think you are also right that they see this as a better way of computing: a way that can make computing better and easier for many people (who, in turn will give Apple more money). It is a win-win for Aplle and the consumer, which is a great place for a company to be.
mixmastamyk 15y ago
RXC's got a good point here, of course he takes it way too far in link-baity fashion.
chrisjsmith 15y ago
I think there are too many PC's running windows available at a low price point to make this argument even worth considering. You can get laptops for less than the price of an iPod touch. Add to that, Windows Live's offerings such as Mesh, Hotmail (with Windows Live Mail client), SkyDrive and Office home and student edition are actually really good despite them not getting as much press coverage. People only talk about stuff when they are directly marketed at, are hyped or are unhappy. If they are happy, it rarely gets a mention. There might just be a lot of happy Windows users ambling past the Apple Store without even looking (or understanding).
- deleted 15y ago
  [deleted]
- coliveira 15y ago
  There is a difference between happy and comfortable. Most people using Windows are just comfortable enough not to make the effort to move to another platform. A lot of tech people are just like that (the ones that are not passionate about new Apple machines). On the other hand, these are the people that have less weight on the decisions of new users...
  - chrisjsmith 15y ago
    Interesting perspective. Ironically I have had a pile of recent Macs (I think it's 8 now from G5 iMac to a mid-2010 MacBook Pro) and always end up back on Windows on an old ThinkPad for some reason or another. Comfort may just be that reason (other than the slight enlightenment recently that a user can be productive on the simplest of tools).
  - loso 15y ago
    I use Windows 7 and I am happy with it. There are a lot of people in tech who are happy with it. I have switched platforms several times over the years but I always end up back at Windows. People who use Windows are only using it because they are "comfortable" is a very big assumption.
    - 15y ago
umtrey 15y ago
People are worried about the cloud-killing PR mistake or security breach that will cripple the efforts to get data into these controlled data centers, so this makes perfect sense. Start the focus with something everyone will know: Music. If someone breaks into your music collection... oh no? I was keeping my Duran Duran passion a secret. Once this catches on, any mistake won't be a crippling one or a business-critical error, just a little frustrating. Gradually promote the other cloud offerings afterward, even if they have been there the whole time. Tied in with Lion's auto-versioning options, this just means everything naturally goes to the cloud, and no one will ever think of it again. As stated, this isn't to kill Windows, this is to kill the pain of buying more devices. This is the first step to build that confidence and show it off in something people will have fun with.
- danieldk 15y ago
  Indeed. To make your point more explicit: My girlfriend has my old iPhone 3G. Given that iCloud will not be supported on the 3G, she will have to buy a new phone once the MobileMe subscription runs out, to continue to use the handy synchronization features of MobileMe. Now, it's just calendars and contacts, but as documents, "App state", etc. moves into iCloud, people will feel necessary to update to the latest device more often to be able to use iCloud in its fullest. Every year you do not upgrade your device, you will miss out on more and more improvements, until your device becomes unsupported (the iPhone 3G was obsoleted well within 2.5 years). iCloud and comparable offerings will make digital life easier for many people. But it will also be a lot harder to get out of the vendor grip. People will dislike these companies as much as they disliked Microsoft, but will be equally tied to their products.
  - flatulent1 15y ago
    MobileMe accounts are being extended to a year from now for free, before the service is shut off. If the phone no longer meets her needs at that time, she can sell it to help fund a new one (or perhaps you will have yet another leftover from another upgrade of yours). Even an old iPhone can still be used as an iPod, to play games on, and for some WiFi net activities. Old Apple phones have better resale value than any others I've seen. It sounds like you're complaining about problems that are more hypothetical than real. If you really think that many users are being placed in a bad position, think of it as an opportunity to rescue them with some kind of great app / service that you create. Also, Steve said something yesterday about some open iCloud APIs.
rmason 15y ago
Right now people are speculating with incomplete information. Still embraced by the famous Jobs reality distortion field. If this all comes to pass then there will be a huge opportunity for the first person who can get your data back from either the iCloud or the gCloud.
dagar 15y ago
"Having been shown the way by Apple, I expect Google to shortly do the same thing, adding automated backup, synchronization and migration to Android and Chrome." Doesn't my android phone already do this?
- Pewpewarrows 15y ago
  Yes. But you forgot that WWDC is the time of year that Apple takes old technology and calls it new and magical when then release it on their ecosystem of products.
- mdwrigh2 15y ago
  Yeah, and so does chrome (well, it can sync passwords, bookmarks, etc.) I'm not sure what else the author wants Android and Chrome to sync. Application data? That's up to the authors of the application, just the same as it is with iCloud.
  - MatthewPhillips 15y ago
    I want to meet the web developer that isn't already "syncing" data on the server vs. the client.
- eiji 15y ago
  Excuse my ignorance, but NO. Without having read all the details of iCloud, I very much hope the following is possible: App Foo on my Mac has some data, that it can encrypt into the iCloud, and App Foo on my iPhone get access that data. iCloud is just a storage, but I hope Apps can actually encrypt the data before they load it into the cloud. Now that would be something I would look forward too. Cloud computing is fine, but I want it to be the App developers choice to encrypt the hell out of my data so that iCloud has no idea what I actually own. Google has cloud storage for all sorts of stuff, but they have access to it.
- eddieplan9 15y ago
  IIRC, Android sort of does what iCloud does, but iCloud is very different and IMHO a much better offering from a developer perspective. According to Apple's website: iCloud Storage APIs enable your apps to store documents and key value data in iCloud. iCloud will wirelessly push documents to a user's device automatically and update the documents when changed on any device — automatically. iCloud allows an app developer to treat the cloud as a natural extension of the iOS device. In-cloud storage is almost as easy to use as saving data locally, and you get push synchronization for free. This is similar to Dropbox, but baked right into the system APIs. I don't think there is anything like this in Android. You of course can hack something using Google Storage API or Amazon S3, but they are very different beasts from iCloud: while iCloud associate the storage with a user, Google and Amazon associate it with an app. That difference has a huge implication. iCloud makes it trivially easy to synchronize data for one app across devices of the same user. To achieve the same thing with Google and Amazon's offerings, you would have to provide your own code to identify user, isolate data of different users in the cloud, and bring in your own synchronization/push magic. On the other hand, if you want to mine across data of all users - answering questions like the most-bookmarked pages - then you might feel iCloud's extra layer of abstraction getting into your way.
raimondious 15y ago
What does iCloud have to do with Windows? It's not explained anywhere in the article. The purpose of iCloud is its utility, platform lock-in, and the "cloud" checkbox ticked off in every major Apple product. All of those things will probably kill Windows a little bit, but that's not necessarily the main purpose. If anything, it's positioned against Google.
- rimantas 15y ago
  Platform lock-in is a bit gray. They were talking that for Windows they would use Pictures (or is it MyPictures) folder instead of iPhoto. That probably means that if you are a Windows user but own an iPhone you'll still get iCloud service.
mtw 15y ago
how are you going to run a good game on Mac?
- Total_Meltdown 15y ago
  Steam.
  - blhack 15y ago
    Steam has nothing to do with running games on a mac, it's just a storefront for downloading them.
    - JonnieCache 15y ago
      Meltdown is pointing out the fact that there are many, many good games available for the mac. To run good games on the mac, one simply has to install them, with steam being one of the best ways. It was a stupid question. Anyway, a more technically accurate answer would've been "cider," but I am loathe to promote such an unsatisfactory compromise ;)
      - Total_Meltdown 15y ago
        Right. I mean, I'm not the biggest Apple fan, but in the interest of fairness I thought it was worth pointing out that gaming isn't as much of an anti-mac argument as it used to be, which is what the mtw seemed to be implying.
        rimantas 15y ago
        I am glad one-button mouse is not mentioned any more. Or maybe it's because there are no buttons on Apples' latest mice…
      - Steko 15y ago
        It's an even dumber question because we're talking about the cloud. Sooner then you think we won't even have to install the games or even have them ported to your platform. And once LTE pings are more consistently <50 (40-100 today) even your tablet/phone will be able to offer basically any game.
Blokkd 15y ago
I think that ICloud more of an uphill battle for companies like dropbox or the google document application as opposed to Microsoft.
zipdog 15y ago
I question whether owning someone's data is really as valuable to cloud providers as the article assumes. Not that data isn't valuable, but if it becomes critically valuable and the companies refused to allow users to reclaim it to move to another service, I imagine a law would fix the problem. Facebook has recognised that it isn't the data per-se that is so valuable, but the connections and relationships that are between that data and others.. ie the way that your data is able to interact with other people's data. The way to lock people in is when a person's data alone is insufficient for them. A music collection is just a set of licenses for songs. If people have only licensed the songs on a particular service or device they might find it painful to leave but if that pain is less than the cost of maintaining the service then they will leave. But a music community built around song collections would be impossible to leave, unless everyone did at once, or the person was willing to leave the community itself (much harder to replace than songs).
- DanI-S 15y ago
  This definitely seems true - which is interesting, since Apple and Google have both been floundering around unsuccessfully trying to create their own community experiences. Facebook & co are really the prize here - whichever OS company can integrate the most deeply with existing social networks is going to come out on top. If either one of them can let go of the dream of having their own social network, they'll be able to move faster and get the edge. I suspect that Google are more attached to that dream than Apple. However, they're arguably more capable of pulling it off.
hnsmurf 15y ago
I don't get it. Most of what iCloud does is already being done on smartphones for free. Gmail and Exchange Server both already sync contacts, calendars, and email quite nicely across devices. I haven't had to manually transfer any of that to a new smartphone since long before there was an iPhone. The music thing is nice too, but it's either a paid solution or an incomplete one. Apple once released a stat that only 10% of the music on iPods comes from iTunes (most of the rest is either pirated or ripped CDs).
- blhack 15y ago
  It's just like when apple invented rsync. Or like when the invented multi-tasking on telephones. Or when they invented the touchscreen telephone. Or when they invented the dock. Or when they invented all of the things that they tout as innovations, but are really just shinier versions of things that already exist. I'm not saying any of this is bad; time machine is a lot easier to use for a non-techie than rsync is, just saying that taking an existing technology, putting a lowercase i in front of it, and selling it as a game-changer has been Apple's modus operandi for quite some time now.
  - JonnieCache 15y ago
    I think you're broadly right, but you're missing the key point: apple are adding a lot more than a lowercase i to FOSS innovations: they're adding usable interfaces, polish, and the shiny lowercase i. Time Machine is a lot more than branded rsync. It's usable branded rsync. And the usability is what makes it a "game-changer" in the consumer market where rsync and its algorithmic innovation isn't. In many ways, it's the same thing that canonical is doing with ubuntu, except they have sweet sweet luxury hardware money backing them up compared to canonical's comparatively meagre support contract money, or whatever else it is that they do for cash. Oh and let us not forget: isn't it a key part of the point of OSS is that it's OK, nay even encouraged for people to "steal" the ideas? I thought the concept of stealing an idea, especially a software idea, was supposed to be meaningless? Should the Australian National University have patented rsync back in '96?
    - 15y ago
tomelders 15y ago
This article is the ramblings of a mad man.
georgieporgie 15y ago
What a load of inflammatory hogwash. iPhone/iPod/iPad + 'Cloud' is so far removed from Microsoft's core market, I can't even imagine how one would come to this conclusion. As for consumer trends leading corporate trends, I guess that means that in five years we'll all be employed as {whatever}ville click-slaves on Facebook.
- cwp 15y ago
  Speaking of inflammatory hogwash...
  - georgieporgie 15y ago
    A valid criticism, I admit. :-)
varunsrin 15y ago
Having been shown the way by Apple, I expect Google to shortly do the same thing, adding automated backup, synchronization and migration to Android and Chrome Hmm? Google already does most of this stuff on Android, though there are a few small features like sync of app data that are currently missing Windows 8 not due until 2013 To the best of my knowledge, no date has been set for Windows 8 Jobs is going to sacrifice the Macintosh in order to kill Windows No he's not - the Mac (particularly laptops) will continue to grow, as it has been over the past year. This is because, as always, there will be a percentage of the market that still needs a desktop-style computer for getting real work done. That percentage isn't going anywhere soon, though they may also buy an iPad / tablet style device. You can call it post-PC all you want, but the reality is people still need desktops for getting some tasks done and that is likely to be true at least for a few more years.
- neovive 15y ago
  Definitely agree that Mac's and desktops are not going away anytime soon. For those that need to create and maintain content, the power of the laptop/desktop is still needed. However, the ease of use of tablets and smartphones, combined with a service such as iCloud, are great for consumers that don't need the power or cost of a laptop/desktop.
ansy 15y ago
It's all about ubiquitous computing versus desktop computing. Microsoft's manifest destiny was having a [Microsoft] computer on every desk. Its whole existence is built around achieving and capitalizing on that vision. We are entering the age of ubiquitous computing. Computers everywhere. Not just for every person or every pocket. But multiple computers for every person for every function that can be augmented. Apple gets it. Google gets it. Microsoft merely looks like it understands because it is desperately copying everyone else. But really Microsoft is lost. So utterly lost now that we're no longer in the age of desktop computing.
- falcolas 15y ago
  I'm not sure I agree. The Microsoft Kin showed this kind of forethought, but it was perhaps a bit too early, with a bit too lean-featured a phone. If they had continued the kin-like ubiquity with the Windows 7 phone, and merged that ubiquity with Windows 7 itself, I think it would be a much stronger competitor than it is now; perhaps even pushing Apple and Google on the defensive.
  - ansy 15y ago
    First of all, Kin is a rebrand of the Danger Sidekick business Microsoft bought. All those social media features are inherited from the Sidekick, a product that "got it." A founder of Danger, Andy Rubin, went on to start Android which got acquired by Google and we all know the rest of that story. Who knows why Microsoft bought Danger. "Phones are looking hot, better buy something." Then proceed to screw it up royally by rewriting everything from scratch on top of Windows CE wasting the entire investment. Yeah, I don't think Kin is a good example of how Microsoft gets it.
super_mario 15y ago
Seriously, UNIX guys have had this for decades. Ever heard of keeping your user directory and profile on the network server. So when you walk around the office and log into different machines your HOME "travels" with you. The network server now just lives on a server outside your organization/home what ever. The network speed now becomes the biggest limitation, and there are valid concerns with security as well.
- bxr 15y ago
  ssshhhh. This is a technological revolution, don't tell them that the war is already over.
- rimantas 15y ago
  Seriously, OS X is UNIX, I doubt you told the news to them.
  - super_mario 15y ago
    I'm perfectly aware of that. I use OS X as my primary OS. My point is that who ever is saying that iCloud is all about killing Windows is missing the point completely, first because the technology not that new or amazing, and second if it does anything to Windows user base it's doing it indirectly and not as some planned consequence.
- pyre 15y ago
  Windows also has 'Roaming Profiles' as students at most Universities can attest to (at least at the one I went to).
atlei 15y ago
Step 1: Get all Mac/iPhone/iPad users to use the iCloud Step 2: Integrate API (with access to your data) and a MacCloud Store Now, it doesn't matter if you purchase software using your iPhone/iPad, Mac or the cloud; Apple will get 30% of all purchases anyway. Brilliant !
hernan7 15y ago
Cringely: "consumers have been leading the IT market for the last decade" More like for the last 3 decades (the IBM PC came out in 1981).
baconner 15y ago
Remember the big stink about being able to bring your us cellphone number with you to a new provider? The new era of consumer cloud data looks like its going to take customer lock in to new heights. IMO it's time to start rallying for a universal right to export.
- dagar 15y ago
  Personally, I'd much rather choose google's cloud for this reason. http://www.dataliberation.org/ http://www.dataliberation.org/
- JayWilmont 15y ago
  What lockin? 1. You can still do whatever you want with your files as they still live on your local machine. 2. You can sync with Windows machines (photos were mentioned as an example in the keynote) 3. You can turn off iCloud
Alg0r1thm 15y ago
"Some will say this is unlikely because of Microsoft’s grip on enterprise sales, but consumers have been leading the IT market for the last decade and the mobile transition will only accelerate this trend." The mobile transition is a fallacy in my opinion. There is no transition; it is more a compliment to real computing solutions. Do you think large business are going to sacrifice control of their data to a "cloud" rather than their own datacenters and be held hostage to a recurring fee? Or how would you like your employees to be doing spreadsheets and documents on a tablet's virtual keyboard? While I do believe many consumer needs can be met by mobile tech, the PC will continue to exist for a lot longer than three years simply because of the utility of conventional design. No matter how hard you try, three years from now Windows will still be alive and ingrained into the government and business world for at least three more years after that.
- ak217 15y ago
  > Do you think large business are going to sacrifice control of their data to a "cloud" rather than their own datacenters and be held hostage to a recurring fee? Yes. They already pay the recurring fee to their IT department. Big companies use tons of outside services already. There is no substantive difference between that and moving more of their software and data to a standardized third-party datacenter (which is what the cloud is).
KeyBoardG 15y ago
This post is an example of how a sensational title can game the HackerNews up-vote system.
CJefferson 15y ago
Interestingly, for me the iCloud is the last straw to make me leave Mac. I recently bought an Android phone, and I've found that Apple really hates co-operating with anything which isn't another Apple product. I could get a new iPhone, but I don't want to tie myself so I forever after have to buy mini macs, macbooks, iphones and ipads if I want to be able to get at my existing data. Google is much better in this respect, I can get to my google data equally well from all phones and all OSes.
- JayWilmont 15y ago
  In the keynote they mentioned photos being kept updated on a Windows machine as well. iCloud subtracts zero functionality from any device (though it does change MobileMe, that doesn't seem to be your issue). Once a document is on your machine, you can turn off iCloud and that document will persist on your computer/iPhone/whatever unmolested just like it did pre-iCloud. What about iCloud (which you can turn off if you want) that upsets you so?
  - CJefferson 15y ago
    Experience tells me that Apple will integrate iCloud deeply into all their Mac OS X applications, and many 3rd party apps will use iCloud by default, and not offer alternative options (such as Dropbox). Will I be able to write apps for Android which can access data stored in the iCloud? I will be very, very surprised if we can. Similar to how it is very difficult, verging on impossible, to sync my Android phone with iTunes. Apple clearly do not want their systems to integrate nicely with others, except where they feel they really have to. The iTunes / Blackberry problems from a few years ago proved to me that Apple will do anything it takes to stop interoperability, except where they want it.
- tobylane 15y ago
  Apple want you to buy their hardware, Google want you to see their ads. No wonder Google lets you see your data on any device you want.
willheim 15y ago
Erm... no. Apple announcing iCloud is kinda like Palm announcing WebOS a couple of years ago, streaming music from LastFM (though iCloud doesn't stream), getting your pics up and down from Flickr, and working on GDocs/Gmail/GCal/Office365. Windows is an OS. iOS is an OS. Mac OSX is an OS. The iCloud service is designed to allow you to shuffle from one to the other seamlessly but not to replace those machines altogether. Kinda like using dropbox. Now, is the OS becoming less important in comparison to the services available? Absolutely. Not for everyone but for the average user it certainly is. Will iCloud suceed? Surely it will, but only for those who wish to be tied into Apple products (unless I am mistaken and you will be able to share iCloud uploads with Android or WP devices).
lukeschlather 15y ago
>Here is the money line from Jobs yesterday: “We’re going to demote the PC and the Mac to just be a device – just like an iPad, an iPhone or an iPod Touch. We’re going to move the hub of your digital life to the cloud.” Interesting that devices are only provided by Microsoft and Apple. Somehow I don't see that as a very diffuse cloud. (And certainly not one that will kill Microsoft devices.)
SoftwareMaven 15y ago
iCloud and the demotion of the desktop makes me wonder if we will see a version of OS X that doesn't require a Mac to run. Apple is in such an interesting place at the intersection of software and hardware.
code_duck 15y ago
I see the killing of Windows is a natural consequence of the flow of technology. In producing new products that match where the world is going, Apple is part of killing Windows, just like the rest of us. To say 'killing Windows' it's the 'purpose' of a given Apple product is absurd, somewhat like saying the point of driving to work in the morning is to pass a certain traffic light.
brisance 15y ago
There is no need for Apple to "kill" Microsoft. Ballmer himself seems to be doing a good job for the last 10 years since Gates left. And with the recent over-priced acquisition of Skype, seems well on the way to killing his own company. iCloud is a defensive play. It's to prevent Facebook and Google from getting at Apple users' data. At the same time it's boosting Twitter's star. Apple's MO is to be in control of its own destiny, so I wouldn't be surprised if Dave Winer was right and Apple already has some investment in Twitter, considering how tightly integrated it is with iOS 5.
Stormbringer 15y ago
This title is a classic example of what is wrong with tech reporting. Every new thing is supposed to be a 'killer' of something else. Whether that be "iPod killer", "iPhone killer", "Windows killer", or, $Deity forbid: "linux killer". This is not to say that things don't change, just that the sensationalist nature of reporting is unhelpful. I suggest a new benchmark: the techno-journalism killer. Each time some techno-journalist describes something as a killer they lose a point. If they are right within 1 year, they get 10 points. Within 2 years, 6 points. Within 3 years, 3 points, and within 4 years 1 point. If the journalist accumulates enough negative points (-10 ??), they themselves get 'killed' (ie deprecated, made obsolescent, removed from the news streams and RSS feeds etc). After all, if they're wrong that much, they don't deserve our attention.
dhughes 15y ago
I wonder if deals will be made in the future between Apple, MS, Google and large Internet providers to throttle the competition. Or is Google planning long term by buying up dark fiber to make sure its Doc and Apps are accessible when its competitors are not?
motters 15y ago
I don't want the hub of my digital life moving to the cloud, where it can be data mined, surveilled, decompiled, accidentally erased, subject to arbitrary subscription ransoms or sold to anyone who will pay.
rmc 15y ago
Having been shown the way by Apple, I expect Google to shortly do the same thing, adding automated backup, synchronization and migration to Android and Chrome. Eh, this is already happening. You can use an Android phone entirely without needing to use a desktop machine. You install apps over the air, no desktop needed. You register the phone over the air, no desktop needed. Your contacts and stuff are synced over the air, no desktop required.
mark_l_watson 15y ago
"""And what happens once all our data is in that iCloud, is there any easy way to get it back out? Nope. It’s in there forever and we are captive customers — trapped more completely than Microsoft ever imagined.""" I don't agree with this: Google certainly makes it really easy to get data out of Google Docs, GMail, etc. Isn't it reasonable to also expect Apple to provide local backup facilities?

156 points by Deprecated 15y ago

I think we need to realize that PCs (laptops or desktops) and mobile devices (tablets and mobile phones) are good at different things, and going forward will be used for different things. For example, I'm sure everyone (especially on this site) has noticed that software development is kind of a big thing. I don't see any indication that I'll be developing any software on a mobile device any time soon (especially not an iOS device, as far as I know running user-written code is still against the App Store TOS). As for the "three years" projection, I'm not sure what the article is saying. Our (mobile) data will be in the cloud within three years? Probably. That Apple will kill Microsoft in three years? Absolutely not. No way. Don't underestimate the power of inertia. Even if Apple manages to entirely kill Microsoft's consumer market share (unlikely) they can survive off enterprise customers just fine. I mean, what do you use on a Mac to compose documents? Word. Are there any others? (I don't have a Mac, so feel free to correct me if I'm mistaken.) I don't think PCs are going anywhere. People will always need to get serious work done, and larger systems will always be better at that than smaller systems of the same era, if only for the sheer amount of numbers they can crunch. Mobiles are great products with a tremendous amount of utility, but they're complements, not substitutes.

TomOfTTB 15y ago
Cringely is in the business of trying to look prophetic so he makes wild predictions like this to get attention. I don't think anyone, Apple included, things the Personal Computer is going anywhere for the very reasons you laid out above. Even with a wireless keyboard and a Monitor hooked up the iPad isn't sufficient for any serious writing, coding, photo editing, etc... You still need a PC for that. I think Apple laid out its position very clearly yesterday. The PC isn't going away it's just being demoted. It isn't t he center of your digital universe anymore. But that doesn't mean it isn't useful.
- nostromo 15y ago
  You're exactly right -- Jobs said himself that PCs will be like trucks of the automobile universe and will always be around -- they just won't be used by as many people as often. Here's the clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_Dlq4B56CI http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_Dlq4B56CI
- MaysonL 15y ago
  Cringely is in the business of trying to look prophetic so he makes wild predictions like this to get attention. Yeah, but in the long run, he may be right. Has peak Windows occurred? It's not quite clear, but it may have, with the total PC business going at -1% yoy. And when Windows/Office sales start showing big year over year declines, Microsoft will be hurting very badly, if they haven't developed some other revenue source.
  - recoiledsnake 15y ago
    Peak Windows? Huh? Noy even close. The sales rate has reduced due to many reasons unrelated to Apple, saturation is high, repalcement rate is low because they are fast enough for many years etc. etc. Measuring installed base makes more sense than pure sales. So the PC business going at -1% yoy is not really a good metric. MS is still making money hand over fist, look at their financials.
SoftwareMaven 15y ago
I mean, what do you use on a Mac to compose documents? Word. No. I use Pages (part of Apple's iWork) for almost everything. If I need Word comparability, I open LibreOffice. Given how seamless the iWork experience is becoming between iDevices (which will be including Macs), how much cheaper iWork is, and how much better the iWork user experience is (they don't have 20 years of feature-cruft littering the interface), there is absolutely no reason for a home Mac user to use Office and few reasons (usually an iron-fisted corporate IT group) for a corporate Mac user to use it.
- evilduck 15y ago
  Google Docs for me on OSX. The no-hassle availability anywhere without an install covers 95% of my document creation needs, the fact that everything's autosaved to the cloud and can be collaborated on, versioned, and exported keeps me coming back, and I don't have to worry about software version compatibility with anyone I share with which is a killer feature. Anything that requires style or aesthetics gets drafted in Google Docs and then imported into Pages or Keynote for finishing touches, both of which are lightyears ahead of Word or Powerpoint in that regard (at least for 2007/Win 2008/OSX MS Office releases).
  - Total_Meltdown 15y ago
    Google Docs is Office's closest competitor, but not outside individuals and small organizations, simply BECAUSE it's all stored on "the cloud". BitBucket and GitHub have the same problem. It's not that they're not good products, it's that there are many, many, many very large companies that want to keep their data to themselves. And by the way, being "encrypted" on the cloud doesn't usually mean what most people seem to think it means. Example: http://www.informationweek.com/news/storage/security/229500683 http://www.informationweek.com/news/storage/security/2295006...
- eropple 15y ago
  No. I use Pages (part of Apple's iWork) for almost everything. If I need Word comparability, I open LibreOffice. And if you need to do something remotely complex, neither works. Pages is decent for the very baseline word processing; OpenOffice is good for very little of anything. The overwhelming majority of people use Office because what you call "cruft" is what other people call "important".
JonnieCache 15y ago
I think we can all envisage a future where we are exclusively using web-based office suites on post-PC devices. A lot of people are already doing this. What I can't imagine is a world where we are developing those web-based office suites on the same post-PC devices that they are deployed to. Try and imagine using XCode on a tablet under iOS all day. Doesn't sound very appealing does it? Or autocad, or solidworks or arcGIS, or any number of other industrial applications. For the PC to disappear, somebody is going to need to define a whole new category of much more powerful post-PC devices. I can envisage a superpowered tablet with a bluetooth keyboard that wirelessly links to any nearby display, but that doesn't sound very post-PC to me. And it doesn't answer the question of how to develop UIs for tasks of irreducible complexity without violating iOS's mandatory UX simplicity.
- stcredzero 15y ago
  Try and imagine using XCode on a tablet under iOS all day. Doesn't sound very appealing does it? No one needs to supplant the workstation form-factor. What we're in the process of is realizing that there are tons of other opportunities in mobile form factors. Try to think of all the workplace activities that involve taking down data on pieces of paper and taking them over to a computer where they get entered. Try to think of all the times when people read off information from a specialized instrument and enter it into a computer. All of these are opportunities for mobile computing.
  - JonnieCache 15y ago
    Totally agreed, one of the biggest industrial users of tablets is in hospitals, which is exactly what you're talking about. Lots of people do seem to think that workstations will be supplanted though. So much hype about the "death of the PC," the "post-PC era," although I accept that "post" doesnt necessarily imply a world where that thing is totally gone.
rimantas 15y ago
> I don't see any indication that I'll be developing any > software on a mobile device any time soon There is more to development than coding. See e.g. http://www.appcooker.com/ http://www.appcooker.com/
tintin 15y ago
Very true! I like to have my documents on my own computer creating backups by myself. There might be people who like to have there documents in the clouds but others don't. I'm an Ubuntu user and never used Ubuntu One.

programminggeek 15y ago

iCloud is a great idea, so is Google Apps, so is Office 365. None are designed to "kill Windows". iCloud's real purpose is to sell more Apple hardware, not kill Windows. Hurting Windows sales would simply be a side effect. It's a smart move to put iPads and iPhones on equal footing as the Mac in that regard. If your docs, pictures, apps, and music are all on iCloud, your computers become disposable digital devices. Want a new one? Buy it, all your files are already there waiting for you. The disposable digital device is a huge idea. Google, Apple, Amazon, and HP all benefit hugely from disposable devices because they all profit hugely from the mass distribution and churn of them. Mobile has a faster consumer turnover than PC's. For example, my parents have had the same desktop computer running Windows XP since um, 2004 or so I think. Before that they bought a computer in 1995. Most people get a new phone every 1-2 years. So, upgrade once every 5-10 years or every 2? Which do you think makes Apple more money? If all your files magically move between devices, and the devices keep getting cheaper, people will naturally upgrade faster. This hurts the Windows monopoly for sure, but the point is not to kill Windows. The point is to increase their own lock-in and device sell rates. Selling more devices increases profits. That's the point.

spenrose 15y ago
Upvoted b/c I think your rejection of Cringely is right, but the reason is different. Jobs/Apple are not in this for the money. They simply believe that iOS + cloud is a better way to compute.
- bingaman 15y ago
  Hahahaha
- SoftwareMaven 15y ago
  Your comment feels like it is giving Jobs and Apple a bit more altruism than I think they deserve. They are absolutely in it for the money, but I think you are also right that they see this as a better way of computing: a way that can make computing better and easier for many people (who, in turn will give Apple more money). It is a win-win for Aplle and the consumer, which is a great place for a company to be.

mixmastamyk 15y ago

RXC's got a good point here, of course he takes it way too far in link-baity fashion.

chrisjsmith 15y ago

I think there are too many PC's running windows available at a low price point to make this argument even worth considering. You can get laptops for less than the price of an iPod touch. Add to that, Windows Live's offerings such as Mesh, Hotmail (with Windows Live Mail client), SkyDrive and Office home and student edition are actually really good despite them not getting as much press coverage. People only talk about stuff when they are directly marketed at, are hyped or are unhappy. If they are happy, it rarely gets a mention. There might just be a lot of happy Windows users ambling past the Apple Store without even looking (or understanding).

deleted 15y ago
[deleted]
coliveira 15y ago
There is a difference between happy and comfortable. Most people using Windows are just comfortable enough not to make the effort to move to another platform. A lot of tech people are just like that (the ones that are not passionate about new Apple machines). On the other hand, these are the people that have less weight on the decisions of new users...
- chrisjsmith 15y ago
  Interesting perspective. Ironically I have had a pile of recent Macs (I think it's 8 now from G5 iMac to a mid-2010 MacBook Pro) and always end up back on Windows on an old ThinkPad for some reason or another. Comfort may just be that reason (other than the slight enlightenment recently that a user can be productive on the simplest of tools).
- loso 15y ago
  I use Windows 7 and I am happy with it. There are a lot of people in tech who are happy with it. I have switched platforms several times over the years but I always end up back at Windows. People who use Windows are only using it because they are "comfortable" is a very big assumption.
  - 15y ago

umtrey 15y ago

People are worried about the cloud-killing PR mistake or security breach that will cripple the efforts to get data into these controlled data centers, so this makes perfect sense. Start the focus with something everyone will know: Music. If someone breaks into your music collection... oh no? I was keeping my Duran Duran passion a secret. Once this catches on, any mistake won't be a crippling one or a business-critical error, just a little frustrating. Gradually promote the other cloud offerings afterward, even if they have been there the whole time. Tied in with Lion's auto-versioning options, this just means everything naturally goes to the cloud, and no one will ever think of it again. As stated, this isn't to kill Windows, this is to kill the pain of buying more devices. This is the first step to build that confidence and show it off in something people will have fun with.

danieldk 15y ago
Indeed. To make your point more explicit: My girlfriend has my old iPhone 3G. Given that iCloud will not be supported on the 3G, she will have to buy a new phone once the MobileMe subscription runs out, to continue to use the handy synchronization features of MobileMe. Now, it's just calendars and contacts, but as documents, "App state", etc. moves into iCloud, people will feel necessary to update to the latest device more often to be able to use iCloud in its fullest. Every year you do not upgrade your device, you will miss out on more and more improvements, until your device becomes unsupported (the iPhone 3G was obsoleted well within 2.5 years). iCloud and comparable offerings will make digital life easier for many people. But it will also be a lot harder to get out of the vendor grip. People will dislike these companies as much as they disliked Microsoft, but will be equally tied to their products.
- flatulent1 15y ago
  MobileMe accounts are being extended to a year from now for free, before the service is shut off. If the phone no longer meets her needs at that time, she can sell it to help fund a new one (or perhaps you will have yet another leftover from another upgrade of yours). Even an old iPhone can still be used as an iPod, to play games on, and for some WiFi net activities. Old Apple phones have better resale value than any others I've seen. It sounds like you're complaining about problems that are more hypothetical than real. If you really think that many users are being placed in a bad position, think of it as an opportunity to rescue them with some kind of great app / service that you create. Also, Steve said something yesterday about some open iCloud APIs.

rmason 15y ago

Right now people are speculating with incomplete information. Still embraced by the famous Jobs reality distortion field. If this all comes to pass then there will be a huge opportunity for the first person who can get your data back from either the iCloud or the gCloud.

dagar 15y ago

"Having been shown the way by Apple, I expect Google to shortly do the same thing, adding automated backup, synchronization and migration to Android and Chrome." Doesn't my android phone already do this?

Pewpewarrows 15y ago
Yes. But you forgot that WWDC is the time of year that Apple takes old technology and calls it new and magical when then release it on their ecosystem of products.
mdwrigh2 15y ago
Yeah, and so does chrome (well, it can sync passwords, bookmarks, etc.) I'm not sure what else the author wants Android and Chrome to sync. Application data? That's up to the authors of the application, just the same as it is with iCloud.
- MatthewPhillips 15y ago
  I want to meet the web developer that isn't already "syncing" data on the server vs. the client.
eiji 15y ago
Excuse my ignorance, but NO. Without having read all the details of iCloud, I very much hope the following is possible: App Foo on my Mac has some data, that it can encrypt into the iCloud, and App Foo on my iPhone get access that data. iCloud is just a storage, but I hope Apps can actually encrypt the data before they load it into the cloud. Now that would be something I would look forward too. Cloud computing is fine, but I want it to be the App developers choice to encrypt the hell out of my data so that iCloud has no idea what I actually own. Google has cloud storage for all sorts of stuff, but they have access to it.
eddieplan9 15y ago
IIRC, Android sort of does what iCloud does, but iCloud is very different and IMHO a much better offering from a developer perspective. According to Apple's website: iCloud Storage APIs enable your apps to store documents and key value data in iCloud. iCloud will wirelessly push documents to a user's device automatically and update the documents when changed on any device — automatically. iCloud allows an app developer to treat the cloud as a natural extension of the iOS device. In-cloud storage is almost as easy to use as saving data locally, and you get push synchronization for free. This is similar to Dropbox, but baked right into the system APIs. I don't think there is anything like this in Android. You of course can hack something using Google Storage API or Amazon S3, but they are very different beasts from iCloud: while iCloud associate the storage with a user, Google and Amazon associate it with an app. That difference has a huge implication. iCloud makes it trivially easy to synchronize data for one app across devices of the same user. To achieve the same thing with Google and Amazon's offerings, you would have to provide your own code to identify user, isolate data of different users in the cloud, and bring in your own synchronization/push magic. On the other hand, if you want to mine across data of all users - answering questions like the most-bookmarked pages - then you might feel iCloud's extra layer of abstraction getting into your way.

raimondious 15y ago

What does iCloud have to do with Windows? It's not explained anywhere in the article. The purpose of iCloud is its utility, platform lock-in, and the "cloud" checkbox ticked off in every major Apple product. All of those things will probably kill Windows a little bit, but that's not necessarily the main purpose. If anything, it's positioned against Google.

rimantas 15y ago
Platform lock-in is a bit gray. They were talking that for Windows they would use Pictures (or is it MyPictures) folder instead of iPhoto. That probably means that if you are a Windows user but own an iPhone you'll still get iCloud service.

mtw 15y ago

how are you going to run a good game on Mac?

Total_Meltdown 15y ago
Steam.
- blhack 15y ago
  Steam has nothing to do with running games on a mac, it's just a storefront for downloading them.
  - JonnieCache 15y ago
    Meltdown is pointing out the fact that there are many, many good games available for the mac. To run good games on the mac, one simply has to install them, with steam being one of the best ways. It was a stupid question. Anyway, a more technically accurate answer would've been "cider," but I am loathe to promote such an unsatisfactory compromise ;)
    - Total_Meltdown 15y ago
      Right. I mean, I'm not the biggest Apple fan, but in the interest of fairness I thought it was worth pointing out that gaming isn't as much of an anti-mac argument as it used to be, which is what the mtw seemed to be implying.
      - rimantas 15y ago
        I am glad one-button mouse is not mentioned any more. Or maybe it's because there are no buttons on Apples' latest mice…
    - Steko 15y ago
      It's an even dumber question because we're talking about the cloud. Sooner then you think we won't even have to install the games or even have them ported to your platform. And once LTE pings are more consistently <50 (40-100 today) even your tablet/phone will be able to offer basically any game.

Blokkd 15y ago

I think that ICloud more of an uphill battle for companies like dropbox or the google document application as opposed to Microsoft.

zipdog 15y ago

I question whether owning someone's data is really as valuable to cloud providers as the article assumes. Not that data isn't valuable, but if it becomes critically valuable and the companies refused to allow users to reclaim it to move to another service, I imagine a law would fix the problem. Facebook has recognised that it isn't the data per-se that is so valuable, but the connections and relationships that are between that data and others.. ie the way that your data is able to interact with other people's data. The way to lock people in is when a person's data alone is insufficient for them. A music collection is just a set of licenses for songs. If people have only licensed the songs on a particular service or device they might find it painful to leave but if that pain is less than the cost of maintaining the service then they will leave. But a music community built around song collections would be impossible to leave, unless everyone did at once, or the person was willing to leave the community itself (much harder to replace than songs).

DanI-S 15y ago
This definitely seems true - which is interesting, since Apple and Google have both been floundering around unsuccessfully trying to create their own community experiences. Facebook & co are really the prize here - whichever OS company can integrate the most deeply with existing social networks is going to come out on top. If either one of them can let go of the dream of having their own social network, they'll be able to move faster and get the edge. I suspect that Google are more attached to that dream than Apple. However, they're arguably more capable of pulling it off.

hnsmurf 15y ago

I don't get it. Most of what iCloud does is already being done on smartphones for free. Gmail and Exchange Server both already sync contacts, calendars, and email quite nicely across devices. I haven't had to manually transfer any of that to a new smartphone since long before there was an iPhone. The music thing is nice too, but it's either a paid solution or an incomplete one. Apple once released a stat that only 10% of the music on iPods comes from iTunes (most of the rest is either pirated or ripped CDs).

blhack 15y ago
It's just like when apple invented rsync. Or like when the invented multi-tasking on telephones. Or when they invented the touchscreen telephone. Or when they invented the dock. Or when they invented all of the things that they tout as innovations, but are really just shinier versions of things that already exist. I'm not saying any of this is bad; time machine is a lot easier to use for a non-techie than rsync is, just saying that taking an existing technology, putting a lowercase i in front of it, and selling it as a game-changer has been Apple's modus operandi for quite some time now.
- JonnieCache 15y ago
  I think you're broadly right, but you're missing the key point: apple are adding a lot more than a lowercase i to FOSS innovations: they're adding usable interfaces, polish, and the shiny lowercase i. Time Machine is a lot more than branded rsync. It's usable branded rsync. And the usability is what makes it a "game-changer" in the consumer market where rsync and its algorithmic innovation isn't. In many ways, it's the same thing that canonical is doing with ubuntu, except they have sweet sweet luxury hardware money backing them up compared to canonical's comparatively meagre support contract money, or whatever else it is that they do for cash. Oh and let us not forget: isn't it a key part of the point of OSS is that it's OK, nay even encouraged for people to "steal" the ideas? I thought the concept of stealing an idea, especially a software idea, was supposed to be meaningless? Should the Australian National University have patented rsync back in '96?
  - 15y ago

tomelders 15y ago

This article is the ramblings of a mad man.

georgieporgie 15y ago

What a load of inflammatory hogwash. iPhone/iPod/iPad + 'Cloud' is so far removed from Microsoft's core market, I can't even imagine how one would come to this conclusion. As for consumer trends leading corporate trends, I guess that means that in five years we'll all be employed as {whatever}ville click-slaves on Facebook.

cwp 15y ago
Speaking of inflammatory hogwash...
- georgieporgie 15y ago
  A valid criticism, I admit. :-)

varunsrin 15y ago

Having been shown the way by Apple, I expect Google to shortly do the same thing, adding automated backup, synchronization and migration to Android and Chrome Hmm? Google already does most of this stuff on Android, though there are a few small features like sync of app data that are currently missing Windows 8 not due until 2013 To the best of my knowledge, no date has been set for Windows 8 Jobs is going to sacrifice the Macintosh in order to kill Windows No he's not - the Mac (particularly laptops) will continue to grow, as it has been over the past year. This is because, as always, there will be a percentage of the market that still needs a desktop-style computer for getting real work done. That percentage isn't going anywhere soon, though they may also buy an iPad / tablet style device. You can call it post-PC all you want, but the reality is people still need desktops for getting some tasks done and that is likely to be true at least for a few more years.

neovive 15y ago
Definitely agree that Mac's and desktops are not going away anytime soon. For those that need to create and maintain content, the power of the laptop/desktop is still needed. However, the ease of use of tablets and smartphones, combined with a service such as iCloud, are great for consumers that don't need the power or cost of a laptop/desktop.

ansy 15y ago

It's all about ubiquitous computing versus desktop computing. Microsoft's manifest destiny was having a [Microsoft] computer on every desk. Its whole existence is built around achieving and capitalizing on that vision. We are entering the age of ubiquitous computing. Computers everywhere. Not just for every person or every pocket. But multiple computers for every person for every function that can be augmented. Apple gets it. Google gets it. Microsoft merely looks like it understands because it is desperately copying everyone else. But really Microsoft is lost. So utterly lost now that we're no longer in the age of desktop computing.

falcolas 15y ago
I'm not sure I agree. The Microsoft Kin showed this kind of forethought, but it was perhaps a bit too early, with a bit too lean-featured a phone. If they had continued the kin-like ubiquity with the Windows 7 phone, and merged that ubiquity with Windows 7 itself, I think it would be a much stronger competitor than it is now; perhaps even pushing Apple and Google on the defensive.
- ansy 15y ago
  First of all, Kin is a rebrand of the Danger Sidekick business Microsoft bought. All those social media features are inherited from the Sidekick, a product that "got it." A founder of Danger, Andy Rubin, went on to start Android which got acquired by Google and we all know the rest of that story. Who knows why Microsoft bought Danger. "Phones are looking hot, better buy something." Then proceed to screw it up royally by rewriting everything from scratch on top of Windows CE wasting the entire investment. Yeah, I don't think Kin is a good example of how Microsoft gets it.

super_mario 15y ago

Seriously, UNIX guys have had this for decades. Ever heard of keeping your user directory and profile on the network server. So when you walk around the office and log into different machines your HOME "travels" with you. The network server now just lives on a server outside your organization/home what ever. The network speed now becomes the biggest limitation, and there are valid concerns with security as well.

bxr 15y ago
ssshhhh. This is a technological revolution, don't tell them that the war is already over.
rimantas 15y ago
Seriously, OS X is UNIX, I doubt you told the news to them.
- super_mario 15y ago
  I'm perfectly aware of that. I use OS X as my primary OS. My point is that who ever is saying that iCloud is all about killing Windows is missing the point completely, first because the technology not that new or amazing, and second if it does anything to Windows user base it's doing it indirectly and not as some planned consequence.
pyre 15y ago
Windows also has 'Roaming Profiles' as students at most Universities can attest to (at least at the one I went to).

atlei 15y ago

Step 1: Get all Mac/iPhone/iPad users to use the iCloud Step 2: Integrate API (with access to your data) and a MacCloud Store Now, it doesn't matter if you purchase software using your iPhone/iPad, Mac or the cloud; Apple will get 30% of all purchases anyway. Brilliant !

hernan7 15y ago

Cringely: "consumers have been leading the IT market for the last decade" More like for the last 3 decades (the IBM PC came out in 1981).

baconner 15y ago

Remember the big stink about being able to bring your us cellphone number with you to a new provider? The new era of consumer cloud data looks like its going to take customer lock in to new heights. IMO it's time to start rallying for a universal right to export.

dagar 15y ago
Personally, I'd much rather choose google's cloud for this reason. http://www.dataliberation.org/ http://www.dataliberation.org/
JayWilmont 15y ago
What lockin? 1. You can still do whatever you want with your files as they still live on your local machine. 2. You can sync with Windows machines (photos were mentioned as an example in the keynote) 3. You can turn off iCloud

Alg0r1thm 15y ago

"Some will say this is unlikely because of Microsoft’s grip on enterprise sales, but consumers have been leading the IT market for the last decade and the mobile transition will only accelerate this trend." The mobile transition is a fallacy in my opinion. There is no transition; it is more a compliment to real computing solutions. Do you think large business are going to sacrifice control of their data to a "cloud" rather than their own datacenters and be held hostage to a recurring fee? Or how would you like your employees to be doing spreadsheets and documents on a tablet's virtual keyboard? While I do believe many consumer needs can be met by mobile tech, the PC will continue to exist for a lot longer than three years simply because of the utility of conventional design. No matter how hard you try, three years from now Windows will still be alive and ingrained into the government and business world for at least three more years after that.

ak217 15y ago
> Do you think large business are going to sacrifice control of their data to a "cloud" rather than their own datacenters and be held hostage to a recurring fee? Yes. They already pay the recurring fee to their IT department. Big companies use tons of outside services already. There is no substantive difference between that and moving more of their software and data to a standardized third-party datacenter (which is what the cloud is).

KeyBoardG 15y ago

This post is an example of how a sensational title can game the HackerNews up-vote system.

CJefferson 15y ago

Interestingly, for me the iCloud is the last straw to make me leave Mac. I recently bought an Android phone, and I've found that Apple really hates co-operating with anything which isn't another Apple product. I could get a new iPhone, but I don't want to tie myself so I forever after have to buy mini macs, macbooks, iphones and ipads if I want to be able to get at my existing data. Google is much better in this respect, I can get to my google data equally well from all phones and all OSes.

JayWilmont 15y ago
In the keynote they mentioned photos being kept updated on a Windows machine as well. iCloud subtracts zero functionality from any device (though it does change MobileMe, that doesn't seem to be your issue). Once a document is on your machine, you can turn off iCloud and that document will persist on your computer/iPhone/whatever unmolested just like it did pre-iCloud. What about iCloud (which you can turn off if you want) that upsets you so?
- CJefferson 15y ago
  Experience tells me that Apple will integrate iCloud deeply into all their Mac OS X applications, and many 3rd party apps will use iCloud by default, and not offer alternative options (such as Dropbox). Will I be able to write apps for Android which can access data stored in the iCloud? I will be very, very surprised if we can. Similar to how it is very difficult, verging on impossible, to sync my Android phone with iTunes. Apple clearly do not want their systems to integrate nicely with others, except where they feel they really have to. The iTunes / Blackberry problems from a few years ago proved to me that Apple will do anything it takes to stop interoperability, except where they want it.
tobylane 15y ago
Apple want you to buy their hardware, Google want you to see their ads. No wonder Google lets you see your data on any device you want.

willheim 15y ago

Erm... no. Apple announcing iCloud is kinda like Palm announcing WebOS a couple of years ago, streaming music from LastFM (though iCloud doesn't stream), getting your pics up and down from Flickr, and working on GDocs/Gmail/GCal/Office365. Windows is an OS. iOS is an OS. Mac OSX is an OS. The iCloud service is designed to allow you to shuffle from one to the other seamlessly but not to replace those machines altogether. Kinda like using dropbox. Now, is the OS becoming less important in comparison to the services available? Absolutely. Not for everyone but for the average user it certainly is. Will iCloud suceed? Surely it will, but only for those who wish to be tied into Apple products (unless I am mistaken and you will be able to share iCloud uploads with Android or WP devices).

lukeschlather 15y ago

>Here is the money line from Jobs yesterday: “We’re going to demote the PC and the Mac to just be a device – just like an iPad, an iPhone or an iPod Touch. We’re going to move the hub of your digital life to the cloud.” Interesting that devices are only provided by Microsoft and Apple. Somehow I don't see that as a very diffuse cloud. (And certainly not one that will kill Microsoft devices.)

SoftwareMaven 15y ago

iCloud and the demotion of the desktop makes me wonder if we will see a version of OS X that doesn't require a Mac to run. Apple is in such an interesting place at the intersection of software and hardware.

code_duck 15y ago

I see the killing of Windows is a natural consequence of the flow of technology. In producing new products that match where the world is going, Apple is part of killing Windows, just like the rest of us. To say 'killing Windows' it's the 'purpose' of a given Apple product is absurd, somewhat like saying the point of driving to work in the morning is to pass a certain traffic light.

brisance 15y ago

There is no need for Apple to "kill" Microsoft. Ballmer himself seems to be doing a good job for the last 10 years since Gates left. And with the recent over-priced acquisition of Skype, seems well on the way to killing his own company. iCloud is a defensive play. It's to prevent Facebook and Google from getting at Apple users' data. At the same time it's boosting Twitter's star. Apple's MO is to be in control of its own destiny, so I wouldn't be surprised if Dave Winer was right and Apple already has some investment in Twitter, considering how tightly integrated it is with iOS 5.

Stormbringer 15y ago

This title is a classic example of what is wrong with tech reporting. Every new thing is supposed to be a 'killer' of something else. Whether that be "iPod killer", "iPhone killer", "Windows killer", or, $Deity forbid: "linux killer". This is not to say that things don't change, just that the sensationalist nature of reporting is unhelpful. I suggest a new benchmark: the techno-journalism killer. Each time some techno-journalist describes something as a killer they lose a point. If they are right within 1 year, they get 10 points. Within 2 years, 6 points. Within 3 years, 3 points, and within 4 years 1 point. If the journalist accumulates enough negative points (-10 ??), they themselves get 'killed' (ie deprecated, made obsolescent, removed from the news streams and RSS feeds etc). After all, if they're wrong that much, they don't deserve our attention.

dhughes 15y ago

I wonder if deals will be made in the future between Apple, MS, Google and large Internet providers to throttle the competition. Or is Google planning long term by buying up dark fiber to make sure its Doc and Apps are accessible when its competitors are not?

motters 15y ago

I don't want the hub of my digital life moving to the cloud, where it can be data mined, surveilled, decompiled, accidentally erased, subject to arbitrary subscription ransoms or sold to anyone who will pay.

rmc 15y ago

Having been shown the way by Apple, I expect Google to shortly do the same thing, adding automated backup, synchronization and migration to Android and Chrome. Eh, this is already happening. You can use an Android phone entirely without needing to use a desktop machine. You install apps over the air, no desktop needed. You register the phone over the air, no desktop needed. Your contacts and stuff are synced over the air, no desktop required.

mark_l_watson 15y ago

"""And what happens once all our data is in that iCloud, is there any easy way to get it back out? Nope. It’s in there forever and we are captive customers — trapped more completely than Microsoft ever imagined.""" I don't agree with this: Google certainly makes it really easy to get data out of Google Docs, GMail, etc. Isn't it reasonable to also expect Apple to provide local backup facilities?