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If Satoshi is identified he might also still be alive. This means that Satoshi's BTC (~1mio.) are potentially liquid which would mean a gigantic influx of fres

If Satoshi is identified he might also still be alive. This means that Satoshi's BTC (~1mio.) are potentially liquid which would mean a gigantic influx of fresh bitcoins. It's quite plausible that any movement of these old wallets would crash the Bitcoin price for quite a while.

WanderPanda 6y ago
In the end 1mio btc is just a days swing, right? Should not change much in the long term
jcims 6y ago
This seems strange to me. Relative to the doubling that has recently happened, why would 5% of the total number of bitcoins suddenly moving have any drastic impact on price?
- bravoetch 6y ago
  It is BTC that has never moved before. It would reveal at least one piece of information about the author of the bitcoin whitepaper - they are alive and engaged. Intent would be unknown, and destabilizing. Many pretenders would claim ownership. It would break a 12 year expectation in the story of Bitcoin.
XorNot 6y ago
It's actually a lot worse then that: if anyone gets access to Satoshi's private wallets (i.e. via finding the keys printed out on paper in a personal effects safe or something) then those coins could move. There's no way to absolutely sure that the keys are gone and inaccessible permanently.
- jcims 6y ago
  I'm a complete n00b so this is coming from a place of ignorance, why is that such a factor in the current price? Someone is sitting on $50B in a $1T market, who cares?
  - shawabawa3 6y ago
    selling $50B doesn't move the market from $1T to $950B $1T is the market cap when each bitcoin is trading at ~$52k, but if $50B were sold over a short period of time, it would likely drop the price to $25k or less as the buy orders would all get eaten up
    - jcims 6y ago
      That totally makes sense. But the comments I was replying to made it sound (to me) like it was going to be some long-term disruptor. $25k was the all time high just a couple of months ago. If it dipped to that because someone unloaded Satoshi's cache wouldn't everyone that already had a buy just double down? Seems like it would recover almost instantaneously.
      - rspeele 6y ago
        It is impossible to know because there is no objective way to price Bitcoin. There's no way to say that all the bitcoin in the world should be worth exactly $x. It all depends on what the market perception of that drop is: "this is the end, oh fuck, sell everything" or "ooh buying opportunity".
  - Ekaros 6y ago
    Because it is not actually a 1T market. If Satoshi's coins aren't on market they really aren't part of cap. Thus we are talking about 950B market... And then count out rest of "lost" coins and actual market cap start to shrink and that 50B is starting to be much bigger thing... Yes theoretically it is 1T, but practically much lower...
    - anonisko 6y ago
      Couldn't you make this case for many company stocks? Jeff Bezos owns 20% of AMZN, most of which he hasn't touched since it's founding. Does that mean that AMZN isn't really a $1.5 trillion company?
  - saberdancer 6y ago
- devoutsalsa 6y ago
  I'm not gonna lie. If I had 56 billion USD worth of Bitcoin, it'd be interesting to put them all up for sale, all at once, just to see what happens.

WanderPanda 6y ago

In the end 1mio btc is just a days swing, right? Should not change much in the long term

jcims 6y ago

This seems strange to me. Relative to the doubling that has recently happened, why would 5% of the total number of bitcoins suddenly moving have any drastic impact on price?

bravoetch 6y ago
It is BTC that has never moved before. It would reveal at least one piece of information about the author of the bitcoin whitepaper - they are alive and engaged. Intent would be unknown, and destabilizing. Many pretenders would claim ownership. It would break a 12 year expectation in the story of Bitcoin.

XorNot 6y ago

It's actually a lot worse then that: if anyone gets access to Satoshi's private wallets (i.e. via finding the keys printed out on paper in a personal effects safe or something) then those coins could move. There's no way to absolutely sure that the keys are gone and inaccessible permanently.

jcims 6y ago
I'm a complete n00b so this is coming from a place of ignorance, why is that such a factor in the current price? Someone is sitting on $50B in a $1T market, who cares?
- shawabawa3 6y ago
  selling $50B doesn't move the market from $1T to $950B $1T is the market cap when each bitcoin is trading at ~$52k, but if $50B were sold over a short period of time, it would likely drop the price to $25k or less as the buy orders would all get eaten up
  - jcims 6y ago
    That totally makes sense. But the comments I was replying to made it sound (to me) like it was going to be some long-term disruptor. $25k was the all time high just a couple of months ago. If it dipped to that because someone unloaded Satoshi's cache wouldn't everyone that already had a buy just double down? Seems like it would recover almost instantaneously.
    - rspeele 6y ago
      It is impossible to know because there is no objective way to price Bitcoin. There's no way to say that all the bitcoin in the world should be worth exactly $x. It all depends on what the market perception of that drop is: "this is the end, oh fuck, sell everything" or "ooh buying opportunity".
- Ekaros 6y ago
  Because it is not actually a 1T market. If Satoshi's coins aren't on market they really aren't part of cap. Thus we are talking about 950B market... And then count out rest of "lost" coins and actual market cap start to shrink and that 50B is starting to be much bigger thing... Yes theoretically it is 1T, but practically much lower...
  - anonisko 6y ago
    Couldn't you make this case for many company stocks? Jeff Bezos owns 20% of AMZN, most of which he hasn't touched since it's founding. Does that mean that AMZN isn't really a $1.5 trillion company?
- saberdancer 6y ago
devoutsalsa 6y ago
I'm not gonna lie. If I had 56 billion USD worth of Bitcoin, it'd be interesting to put them all up for sale, all at once, just to see what happens.