7 ms·

I don't quite understand what the risk to coinbase is if Satoshi is alive/identified? Do they think he has a hack or something?!

tristanj 6y ago
Satoshi's wallets have 1.1 million bitcoins, which are worth $56.4 billion at today's price. That would place Satoshi Nakamoto among the 25 wealthiest people on the planet.
- lvs 6y ago
  The question is why that fact alone would affect the value of this company's shares. Just identifying him doesn't mean he'd liquidate.
  - simias 6y ago
    It's still a huge known unknown for Bitcoin. What is Satoshi was linked to a shady organization, or something the general public wouldn't want to support for instance? Imagine if Satoshi turned out to be an avatar for the American, Russian or Chinese government for instance, that would both give them a huge leverage on the blockchain and mean that they'd benefit hugely from widespread adoption of the cryptocurrency. In turn that could motivate other governments to heavily regulate bitcoin as they'd see it as a foreign-controlled currency. That's just fiction, but that's the point, nobody knows for sure who or what Satoshi Nakamoto is, and that's a risk.
    - yissp 6y ago
      It already has a pretty strong association with illegal activity, doesn't it? After speculation I'd wager buying drugs is the most common use-case.
  - jki275 6y ago
    It's not just knowing who he is -- if he's identified he might decide to move those coins. If he did that, it could affect the price. I'm not sure anyone knows what the exact impact of that would be. I don't personally believe Satoshi was an actual person, and don't believe he'll ever be identified. Most likely the keys to those early blocks have been destroyed, and most people wouldn't do that unless there was an institutional reason for it.
  - anonymousab 6y ago
    > Just identifying him doesn't mean he'd liquidate True, but it is not a super unlikely outcome either. Identification alone could also result in a loss of trust in the system of Satoshi turned out to be, say, a government. Could go the opposite way too. It's an unknown that is worth calling out.
  - PragmaticPulp 6y ago
    Risk factors don’t mean “this will definitely happen”. It means this is a known risk for the system underpinning their profits. A more likely scenario is that the keys to those coins are compromised, somehow, given their unbelievably high value.
    - azinman2 6y ago
      I’m surprised someone doesn’t spent 10B in computation to brute force those keys.
      - meetups323 6y ago
        ~50B in the account at current valuation, if Satoshi starts liquidating the value goes down dramatically; if it gets out that it isn't actually Satoshi acting, the value goes down even more (OMG if the creator of bitcoin can get hacked I can get hacked, this is a terrible investment, I'm out). I don't think it'd be possible to recoup the investment, but if you have a strong argument otherwise I'm sure some billionaire/nation-state investors would love to hear it.
      - drexlspivey 6y ago
        You can’t brute force 256 bit keys
- skrebbel 6y ago
  My pet theory is that all those bitcoins are lost forever, just Satoshi performance tuning the miner he'd hacked together with perl one night and letting it run for a few hours. Close terminal, poof, everything gone. Who cares, can mine more later. Bedtime! (disclaimer, I know nothing about bitcoin, there's likely 100 reasons why this makes no technical sense)
  - kristianp 6y ago
    By the time multiple people were mining, the software was mature enough to keep your coins (I suppose this is true anyway).
fidrelity 6y ago
If Satoshi is identified he might also still be alive. This means that Satoshi's BTC (~1mio.) are potentially liquid which would mean a gigantic influx of fresh bitcoins. It's quite plausible that any movement of these old wallets would crash the Bitcoin price for quite a while.
- WanderPanda 6y ago
  In the end 1mio btc is just a days swing, right? Should not change much in the long term
- jcims 6y ago
  This seems strange to me. Relative to the doubling that has recently happened, why would 5% of the total number of bitcoins suddenly moving have any drastic impact on price?
  - bravoetch 6y ago
    It is BTC that has never moved before. It would reveal at least one piece of information about the author of the bitcoin whitepaper - they are alive and engaged. Intent would be unknown, and destabilizing. Many pretenders would claim ownership. It would break a 12 year expectation in the story of Bitcoin.
- XorNot 6y ago
  It's actually a lot worse then that: if anyone gets access to Satoshi's private wallets (i.e. via finding the keys printed out on paper in a personal effects safe or something) then those coins could move. There's no way to absolutely sure that the keys are gone and inaccessible permanently.
  - jcims 6y ago
    I'm a complete n00b so this is coming from a place of ignorance, why is that such a factor in the current price? Someone is sitting on $50B in a $1T market, who cares?
nmca 6y ago
He has many, many BTC and if they move the market will shit the bed.
base698 6y ago
Satoshi's water has billions worth of bitcoins. If they moved and were sold suddenly it could move the price.
jsemrau 6y ago
Marc Andreesen ?
purple_ferret 6y ago
They understand how little inflow actually moves the market. The bigger the market gets, the more likely Satoshi could cripple it.

tristanj 6y ago

Satoshi's wallets have 1.1 million bitcoins, which are worth $56.4 billion at today's price. That would place Satoshi Nakamoto among the 25 wealthiest people on the planet.

lvs 6y ago
The question is why that fact alone would affect the value of this company's shares. Just identifying him doesn't mean he'd liquidate.
- simias 6y ago
  It's still a huge known unknown for Bitcoin. What is Satoshi was linked to a shady organization, or something the general public wouldn't want to support for instance? Imagine if Satoshi turned out to be an avatar for the American, Russian or Chinese government for instance, that would both give them a huge leverage on the blockchain and mean that they'd benefit hugely from widespread adoption of the cryptocurrency. In turn that could motivate other governments to heavily regulate bitcoin as they'd see it as a foreign-controlled currency. That's just fiction, but that's the point, nobody knows for sure who or what Satoshi Nakamoto is, and that's a risk.
  - yissp 6y ago
    It already has a pretty strong association with illegal activity, doesn't it? After speculation I'd wager buying drugs is the most common use-case.
- jki275 6y ago
  It's not just knowing who he is -- if he's identified he might decide to move those coins. If he did that, it could affect the price. I'm not sure anyone knows what the exact impact of that would be. I don't personally believe Satoshi was an actual person, and don't believe he'll ever be identified. Most likely the keys to those early blocks have been destroyed, and most people wouldn't do that unless there was an institutional reason for it.
- anonymousab 6y ago
  > Just identifying him doesn't mean he'd liquidate True, but it is not a super unlikely outcome either. Identification alone could also result in a loss of trust in the system of Satoshi turned out to be, say, a government. Could go the opposite way too. It's an unknown that is worth calling out.
- PragmaticPulp 6y ago
  Risk factors don’t mean “this will definitely happen”. It means this is a known risk for the system underpinning their profits. A more likely scenario is that the keys to those coins are compromised, somehow, given their unbelievably high value.
  - azinman2 6y ago
    I’m surprised someone doesn’t spent 10B in computation to brute force those keys.
    - meetups323 6y ago
      ~50B in the account at current valuation, if Satoshi starts liquidating the value goes down dramatically; if it gets out that it isn't actually Satoshi acting, the value goes down even more (OMG if the creator of bitcoin can get hacked I can get hacked, this is a terrible investment, I'm out). I don't think it'd be possible to recoup the investment, but if you have a strong argument otherwise I'm sure some billionaire/nation-state investors would love to hear it.
    - drexlspivey 6y ago
      You can’t brute force 256 bit keys
skrebbel 6y ago
My pet theory is that all those bitcoins are lost forever, just Satoshi performance tuning the miner he'd hacked together with perl one night and letting it run for a few hours. Close terminal, poof, everything gone. Who cares, can mine more later. Bedtime! (disclaimer, I know nothing about bitcoin, there's likely 100 reasons why this makes no technical sense)
- kristianp 6y ago
  By the time multiple people were mining, the software was mature enough to keep your coins (I suppose this is true anyway).

fidrelity 6y ago

If Satoshi is identified he might also still be alive. This means that Satoshi's BTC (~1mio.) are potentially liquid which would mean a gigantic influx of fresh bitcoins. It's quite plausible that any movement of these old wallets would crash the Bitcoin price for quite a while.

WanderPanda 6y ago
In the end 1mio btc is just a days swing, right? Should not change much in the long term
jcims 6y ago
This seems strange to me. Relative to the doubling that has recently happened, why would 5% of the total number of bitcoins suddenly moving have any drastic impact on price?
- bravoetch 6y ago
  It is BTC that has never moved before. It would reveal at least one piece of information about the author of the bitcoin whitepaper - they are alive and engaged. Intent would be unknown, and destabilizing. Many pretenders would claim ownership. It would break a 12 year expectation in the story of Bitcoin.
XorNot 6y ago
It's actually a lot worse then that: if anyone gets access to Satoshi's private wallets (i.e. via finding the keys printed out on paper in a personal effects safe or something) then those coins could move. There's no way to absolutely sure that the keys are gone and inaccessible permanently.
- jcims 6y ago
  I'm a complete n00b so this is coming from a place of ignorance, why is that such a factor in the current price? Someone is sitting on $50B in a $1T market, who cares?

nmca 6y ago

He has many, many BTC and if they move the market will shit the bed.

base698 6y ago

Satoshi's water has billions worth of bitcoins. If they moved and were sold suddenly it could move the price.

jsemrau 6y ago

Marc Andreesen ?

purple_ferret 6y ago

They understand how little inflow actually moves the market. The bigger the market gets, the more likely Satoshi could cripple it.