3 ms·

5-10 years a lot of development work will be considered blue-collar work started with all the bootcamps, learn to code stuff, plus gameification of hiring proc

5-10 years a lot of development work will be considered blue-collar work started with all the bootcamps, learn to code stuff, plus gameification of hiring process, covid-remote work and an increase in automation and ml tech i can see it as a plausible future

grumple 6y ago
I see this take a lot. It couldn’t be more wrong. Firstly, let’s talk definitions: > A white collar worker is a person who performs professional, desk, managerial, or administrative work. > A blue-collar worker is a working class person who performs manual labor. But I know what you’re trying to say - that we’ll suddenly find ourselves as the contemptible lower class of workers. Just FYI though: many manual laborers make quite a bit of money and are unionized. Many make over 100k which is good living outside of the bay. But as to why you’re wrong: There’s still an enormous demand for devs - far more than the supply. The minute that changes, people will stop going to bootcamps and pursue other fields. And even bootcamps don’t help much: someone has to then take on that junior for a few years to make them useful, and nobody wants to do that. Not just anybody can be a dev. I used to tell people learn to code, but the truth is the average person could never handle even the simplest dev tasks. Even people with CS degrees seem to struggle for their first year (some struggle for their entire careers). ML isn’t quite snake oil, but it’s sold like it. It does some things well but it’s falling short and in need of a breakthrough. Not to mention our work is very important to these companies. Small mistakes can kill the company. Good work can make 100x+ our cost. And the better devs are several times more valuable than the mediocre ones. If developers were under real threat of being commodified, you’d see unionization happen so fast. There’s a reason companies move from outsourcing to insourcing - if the cheaper devs were working out, it wouldn’t make any sense.
- mouzogu 6y ago
  Good points. I think we are slowly becoming commodified or at least there will be greater stratification between different types of developer with much higher salaries on one and and much lower on the other.
  - grumple 6y ago
    Who's on the low end? Even junior positions are paying close to 100k in some areas, with juniors in the bay making more than that. There are some true-entry level positions and areas (midwest, less urban) that pay less. Academia as well. But if you're talking about overseas devs, even they are charging more these days (40+/hour) for any sort of quality work. You don't want anybody touching your app (or having access to your code) if they don't have a high level of skill and professional accountability. Outsourced teams are often used for MVPs or prototyping - but then these companies call on devs like me when they get serious about their product. If teams of poorly paid devs could compete with highly paid devs, they would already be doing so - outsourcing of development started decades ago and the trend has reversed. You get a much better product with someone who has an intimate understanding of your business and your application, so "gig economy" type of work is generally limited to wordpress-style sites for your local pizza shop. As someone hiring devs, the push is always towards higher pay. Even with competitive salaries, it's hard to find good senior devs. That tells me that our pay isn't competitive enough (or our recruiters suck, but probably both), which is just going to push our salaries higher.

grumple 6y ago

I see this take a lot. It couldn’t be more wrong. Firstly, let’s talk definitions: > A white collar worker is a person who performs professional, desk, managerial, or administrative work. > A blue-collar worker is a working class person who performs manual labor. But I know what you’re trying to say - that we’ll suddenly find ourselves as the contemptible lower class of workers. Just FYI though: many manual laborers make quite a bit of money and are unionized. Many make over 100k which is good living outside of the bay. But as to why you’re wrong: There’s still an enormous demand for devs - far more than the supply. The minute that changes, people will stop going to bootcamps and pursue other fields. And even bootcamps don’t help much: someone has to then take on that junior for a few years to make them useful, and nobody wants to do that. Not just anybody can be a dev. I used to tell people learn to code, but the truth is the average person could never handle even the simplest dev tasks. Even people with CS degrees seem to struggle for their first year (some struggle for their entire careers). ML isn’t quite snake oil, but it’s sold like it. It does some things well but it’s falling short and in need of a breakthrough. Not to mention our work is very important to these companies. Small mistakes can kill the company. Good work can make 100x+ our cost. And the better devs are several times more valuable than the mediocre ones. If developers were under real threat of being commodified, you’d see unionization happen so fast. There’s a reason companies move from outsourcing to insourcing - if the cheaper devs were working out, it wouldn’t make any sense.

mouzogu 6y ago
Good points. I think we are slowly becoming commodified or at least there will be greater stratification between different types of developer with much higher salaries on one and and much lower on the other.
- grumple 6y ago
  Who's on the low end? Even junior positions are paying close to 100k in some areas, with juniors in the bay making more than that. There are some true-entry level positions and areas (midwest, less urban) that pay less. Academia as well. But if you're talking about overseas devs, even they are charging more these days (40+/hour) for any sort of quality work. You don't want anybody touching your app (or having access to your code) if they don't have a high level of skill and professional accountability. Outsourced teams are often used for MVPs or prototyping - but then these companies call on devs like me when they get serious about their product. If teams of poorly paid devs could compete with highly paid devs, they would already be doing so - outsourcing of development started decades ago and the trend has reversed. You get a much better product with someone who has an intimate understanding of your business and your application, so "gig economy" type of work is generally limited to wordpress-style sites for your local pizza shop. As someone hiring devs, the push is always towards higher pay. Even with competitive salaries, it's hard to find good senior devs. That tells me that our pay isn't competitive enough (or our recruiters suck, but probably both), which is just going to push our salaries higher.