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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap

meowface 6y ago
>The Thucydides Trap, also referred to as Thucydides's Trap, is a term popularized by American political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as the international hegemon. It was coined and is primarily used to describe a potential conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China. One shouldn't lump all antagonism towards a government together as a single thing. You can live in China, think the US government has a history of war crimes, subjugation, imperialism, plunder, genocide, and geopolitical treachery, and yet not want to go to war with the US. You can live in the US, think the Chinese government is engaging in genocide and creating an uniquely dystopian surveillance state where all thought and behavior can be monitored and shaped, and yet not want to go to war with China. I'm sure this trap is a real phenomenon, but pretty much every large human empire has been powered by a helm regularly committing horrible atrocities, so one hegemon will probably always be able to legitimately condemn a up-and-comer, and vice versa. I think it can be a bit dangerous to counter such discussion with accusations of war-seeking, because it lets rulers get away with more than they should. At least unless you have specific evidence suggesting the discussion isn't simply a case of people who are genuinely concerned about people for humanist reasons.
- newacct583 6y ago
  Yes, but I think the point was that the rhetoric above, about a nation that was "single greatest threat to freedom, and human rights this world has ever seen", absolutely sounds like it's written by someone who very much does want to go to war with China.
  - unityByFreedom 6y ago
    > sounds like it's written by someone who very much does want to go to war with China. To me it sounds like they're saying we ought to be wary of the threat China poses to freedom. If they thought we should go to war they would say so. I only see people here calling for awareness and preparedness, not war.
- refenestrator 6y ago
  It's the full pattern. Does anyone think the USA actually cares about central asian muslims? With our record and the records of our allies? Or is this coming from collective anxiety over being eclipsed?
  - totalZero 6y ago
    I think the USA (taken as an aggregate of its citizens' views) has a far stronger ethical compass than your comment seems to suggest. So to answer your question, yes to the former question. Maybe yes to the latter question too, but as an "and" not an "or".
    - ncann 6y ago
      There seems to be a disconnect between what the US says and what it does. I certainly believe US people have a strong ethical compass in their world view, at least from the people I interact with and what I read every day. At the same time, with all the things the US does, especially in the middle East, it's hard to take that "moral compass" seriously.
      - refurb 6y ago
        Is there any country where there isn’t a strong disconnect between what they say and what they do? I mean, that’s kind of a human thing.
      - dependsontheq 6y ago
        There is no right way and ethical way to do things in the Middle East - there is just the weird unsolvable status quo and weird things the US or anyone else can do - which might not actually have an effect on anything. I understand the criticism but I never read a book that showed a path forward.
        marksbrown 6y ago
        Nobody dragged the US into the middle East. Why is there anything to do beyond acting as honest broker diplomatically?

>The Thucydides Trap, also referred to as Thucydides's Trap, is a term popularized by American political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as the international hegemon. It was coined and is primarily used to describe a potential conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China. One shouldn't lump all antagonism towards a government together as a single thing. You can live in China, think the US government has a history of war crimes, subjugation, imperialism, plunder, genocide, and geopolitical treachery, and yet not want to go to war with the US. You can live in the US, think the Chinese government is engaging in genocide and creating an uniquely dystopian surveillance state where all thought and behavior can be monitored and shaped, and yet not want to go to war with China. I'm sure this trap is a real phenomenon, but pretty much every large human empire has been powered by a helm regularly committing horrible atrocities, so one hegemon will probably always be able to legitimately condemn a up-and-comer, and vice versa. I think it can be a bit dangerous to counter such discussion with accusations of war-seeking, because it lets rulers get away with more than they should. At least unless you have specific evidence suggesting the discussion isn't simply a case of people who are genuinely concerned about people for humanist reasons.

newacct583 6y ago
Yes, but I think the point was that the rhetoric above, about a nation that was "single greatest threat to freedom, and human rights this world has ever seen", absolutely sounds like it's written by someone who very much does want to go to war with China.
- unityByFreedom 6y ago
  > sounds like it's written by someone who very much does want to go to war with China. To me it sounds like they're saying we ought to be wary of the threat China poses to freedom. If they thought we should go to war they would say so. I only see people here calling for awareness and preparedness, not war.
refenestrator 6y ago
It's the full pattern. Does anyone think the USA actually cares about central asian muslims? With our record and the records of our allies? Or is this coming from collective anxiety over being eclipsed?
- totalZero 6y ago
  I think the USA (taken as an aggregate of its citizens' views) has a far stronger ethical compass than your comment seems to suggest. So to answer your question, yes to the former question. Maybe yes to the latter question too, but as an "and" not an "or".
  - ncann 6y ago
    There seems to be a disconnect between what the US says and what it does. I certainly believe US people have a strong ethical compass in their world view, at least from the people I interact with and what I read every day. At the same time, with all the things the US does, especially in the middle East, it's hard to take that "moral compass" seriously.
    - refurb 6y ago
      Is there any country where there isn’t a strong disconnect between what they say and what they do? I mean, that’s kind of a human thing.
    - dependsontheq 6y ago
      There is no right way and ethical way to do things in the Middle East - there is just the weird unsolvable status quo and weird things the US or anyone else can do - which might not actually have an effect on anything. I understand the criticism but I never read a book that showed a path forward.
      - marksbrown 6y ago
        Nobody dragged the US into the middle East. Why is there anything to do beyond acting as honest broker diplomatically?