7 ms·

Coronavirus Mutants Are Spreading Fast

29 points by chewz 6y ago

gotoeleven 6y ago
The real question is if we will be able to resist this latest round of fear porn from the news media.
- TaupeRanger 6y ago
  By "fear porn" do you mean "updating the population as to the latest state of the worldwide pandemic in which half a million Americans have died in 11 months even while social precautions were in place"?
  - throwaway20875 6y ago
    The death tracker that was glued to the shot of some cable news programs 24/7 in the US is an example of fear porn. The model used by modern media is indefensible. It's the same with social media. Unprincipled and willing to do anything to attract viewership/engagement.
    - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
      The US did far too little to control the spread of the virus, which is why half a million Americans have died. The problem wasn't that people were too scared. It was that there wasn't coordinated, decisive action - specifically, a strict lockdown for several weeks in early 2020 to bring incidence to near zero, followed by rigorous contact-tracing and snuffing out of outbreaks as they occurred. China did this, and as a consequence, fewer than 5000 people have died there, and people have been able to go about their lives more normally for the last year.
      - BrianOnHN 6y ago
        It's [actually not] funny the same people that oppose this are the same ones that think they have the right to: 1. Consequence-less broadcasting of any speech (i.e., sympathizing with nazis and lying to vulnerable people about life-threatening illness). 2. Unfettered access to life-ending technology (guns) 3. Unwavering support for unborn lives. Smh
        testesttest 6y ago
        Lots of assumtions. Maybe, they just want their kid to be able to return to school. Also, this response is the reason for the anon account. People on the internet are quick to categorize and demonize.
        Gravey 6y ago
        While there may be some strong arguments for the China approach to COVID management, I’m not sure I find your enumerated list of ad-hominem strawmans and head shaking very convincing.
      - throwaway20875 6y ago
        Yes, you're right - in order to take more effective action we need to plaster a running death count to the TV screen 24/7 for every American media consumer to view. Time Warner/Comcast/Viacom/Fox know what's best for us and it has absolutely nothing to do with them manipulating emotions for profit.
        DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
        It's just not been my impression at all that people are too worried in the US about the number of deaths. Quite the opposite, actually. The most stunning aspect of the pandemic, to me, has been how American society has accepted half a million deaths. I would have considered that unthinkable just a year ago.
        throwaway20875 6y ago
        I agree with you. But COVID is not unique: people have been dying unnecessary deaths in this country for a long time, and have accelerated in recent years. Go read up on deaths of despair. Look at the rise in healthcare costs, or how unhealthy our food is. It's no wonder that a society of unhealthy, isolated, and stressed people are succumbing to a disease that kills those with suppressed immune systems.
        DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
        The reason for the large number of deaths in the US is not that Americans have suppressed immune systems, are stressed, or are otherwise unhealthy. It's that the virus has been allowed to spread. The infection fatality rate in the US is not 500x higher than in China. The number of infections per capita is, however. The difference is that one country had a strict lockdown, followed by rigorous contact tracing, and the other did not.
        throwaway20875 6y ago
        I think other Western nations are better comparisons for a number of reasons. I don't think discussing China's approach is a productive conversation. >The reason for the large number of deaths in the US is not that Americans have suppressed immune systems, are stressed, or are otherwise unhealthy. I disagree. And even if we were to stop COVID from killing so many, it's reckless to consider this as not a significant contributor to any unnecessary deaths. New variants of existing diseases are inevitable.
    - BrianOnHN 6y ago
      I'm curious, why did you post from a throwaway to express this sentiment?
      - throwaway20875 6y ago
        I use only a throwaway account. I'd rather stay anonymous, especially when I cannot delete my posts.
        BrianOnHN 6y ago
        If what you have to say isn't worth your reputation, then maybe you should think twice before spreading that same thought to real [and often vulnerable] people on the still-nascent internet.
        throwaway20875 6y ago
        >If what you have to say isn't worth your reputation Because I believe the current trajectory of society will place more than just my reputation at risk for expressing my thoughts. Make of that what you will.
        BrianOnHN 6y ago
        Don't worry, people already know who you are, and you'll get what you deserve no matter how much you try to hide it.
        throwaway20875 6y ago
        >Don't worry, people already know who you are, and you'll get what you deserve no matter how much you try to hide it. That's going to be yikes from me, dog. Thank you for driving home my point, though. I don't think you're aware of how dangerous your mentality is and where it leads. I'd suggest to you that I am not your enemy and we likely have a lot of common ground. I don't think the US handled COVID well and I don't like to see others suffer so needlessly. I also think that there are many things we can do to prevent further diseases such as reduce our dependency on factory farming and to invest more in improving the general health of our country. I don't suspect you'd disagree with those thoughts.
  - ravenstine 6y ago
    That's a massive oversimplification. Not only does this ignore the incentive structure of the media to make a story out of things that are not necessarily a story, but it doesn't factor in the general ignorance of the public and how these things like "mutants" and "variants" affect their psyche. An average IQ American, anyway, doesn't have a good grasp of how many people regularly die of things besides old age, so when you tell them every single day that X number of people are dying and that there are these scary sounding "variants", what you are effectively doing is brainwashing them. Go out and ask random people what they think about the pandemic, and it's common that they think that they are at risk of death even if the data from the CDC demonstrates that they aren't. Heck, there are smart people on HN who can't assess risk particularly well. When the media is constantly drumming COVID into everyone's heads while glossing over the fact that far fewer people are dying now, at the expense of other news items and at the ignorance of other epidemics killing people, yes, that's fear porn.
    - healinpor 6y ago
      Tbf human beings do not assess risk well with or without the presence of media. Our psychology is not well equipped to handle it. That's not to say media doesn't make it worse.
    - simonh 6y ago
      Yes it’s true the media has an incentive to play up threats, but does that mean there are no threats, or that all the threats they report can be discounted? Mutated virus strains that are dramatically more virulent and possibly more deadly are scary. This is the virus evolving to better target its host. There’s nothing irrational about being concerned by that. It’s true fewer people are dying right now, but it’s still thousands of people per day in the US and still hundreds a day here in the UK. Those are not good numbers. I’d love to know how the relatives of those thousands of people who died today would react to you saying they were not at significant risk. If some of the current vaccines offer reduced protection against some of the new strains that’s a big deal that people need to be informed about.
  - mrfusion 6y ago
    Do you really believe the job of the media is to update the population? Isn’t it rather to maximize viewership, clicks, and profit?
    - harambae 6y ago
      I believe previous generations' media had higher journalistic ideals than today's clickbait. They were by no means flawless back in the day (plenty of cases where they covered up things, like FDR's physical health). But they didn't see themselves as infotainment the way so much of cable news appears to, or nakedly pander to one side. But I also don't imagine they had quite the same type of ruthless competition as today. So maybe we're all just products of our times.
  - IAmGraydon 6y ago
    It is fear porn. There have been THOUSANDS of known mutations throughout this pandemic. The “UK strain” has been known since September 2020. Did anyone talk about it? Do you think it’s a coincidence that this suddenly became a huge topic in the media literally the week the vaccine was rolled out? https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=Covid%20mutation https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=Covid%20mu...
  - bobthechef 6y ago
    The real number is debatable because of defective tallying practices where coronavirus is given as cause of death even if there was no specific reason for doing so; hospitals are incentivized to do so because it results in funding. But aside from that, let's not be so naive, eh? The media runs on sensationalism. The pandemic has been grossly mismanaged and there is absolutely no reason for the draconian lock down we're under. There hasn't been for 10 months. It was justifiable in the beginning because we didn't know what we were dealing with, but we have a much better grasp now and we know who is at risk to permit a much more fine-grained approach. Furthermore, much of the media fear mongering is driven by an ignorance of immunology and epidemiology. We have to remind ourselves that what we often "know" about the world beyond our own local lives is what we glean from the media filter. We should always approach that kind of knowledge with a bit of humility and caution. Journalists are not, shall we say, the creme-de-la-creme. There's also the political angle. As Rahm Emanuel once said, you shouldn't let a crisis go to waste. There is a great deal to be made during a pandemic like this, monetarily, socially, politically, and otherwise, the so-called Great Reset[0] functioning as perhaps the paradigmatic example, whatever you happen to know or think of it. Put yourself in the shoes of an ambitious but morally unscrupulous politician or billionaire. Would you so easily end the pandemic given the opportunities it presents, given how rare of an opportunity it poses for doing things you could not do under the usual circumstances? Even if you weren't quite sure what to do with it, you would at least have the instinct to know that the rarity of the situation merits careful consideration, though in this case, you would have had plenty of time to consider them (and frankly, think tanks are in the business of anticipating things; there are no doubt papers that describe how, if a certain set of circumstances were to emerge, certain political goals could be realized). So yeah, announcing variants of COVID is fine per se, as long as such things are contextualized. The media is often an instrument of decontextualization which leads to confusion and poor judgement (just think about how they report scientific articles, not as one exchange in the cacophony of scientific publications, but as some Definitive Judgement of The Science!). At this point, I have no problem acknowledging the merit in the OP's quip, namely, not that we be cynical, but that it's high time we started employing some common sense instead of just drinking the media Koolaid. [0] https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/ https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/
- breck 6y ago
  Wait until they learn that every human every second generates 50,000 harmful genetic mutations! Think of all the vaccines we're going to need!
- dennis_jeeves 6y ago
  An emphatic no. --------- Applied misanthropy: https://atlantis5.home.blog/ https://atlantis5.home.blog/ --------
lumost 6y ago
Studies on the ability of the new vaccines to confer resistance to mutated covid strains are desperately needed. It will be difficult to hold the line on current covid policy through the end of 2021, most of the people I know are focused on just making it another 2-3 months to when they can get a vaccine.
- abacadaba 6y ago
  Just build up the capacity to produce 8 billion mRNA vaccines a month and we should be able to react quick enough to whatever pops up. Easy.
  - lmilcin 6y ago
    The issue with vaccines is that the human immune system has limited capacity to learn viruses. Once it learns a virus it has hard time learning a similar one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin
    - abacadaba 6y ago
      Well that sucks. Interesting that they use flu as the example for this yet we still give out flu shots. Partly why they're only 50% effective? Also if the second dose increases the memory response could we be better off in the long run with a 1 dose initial vaccine?
      - lmilcin 6y ago
        Immune system forgets about flu after some time. But when you want to get flu shot before season it is a little bit of a game whether you get the right shot for what is going to be prevalent strain this year.
    - LeanderK 6y ago
      is it really a limited capacity or just a large bias that results in slow learning? If so maybe again two shots of vaccines are needed to "update" the immune system. The well-being whole world is at stake, i hope we figure something out.
bjeds 6y ago
The cat is already out of the bag and IMHO the only correct solution now is for all countries to do what they should have done in December already when the vaccinations started ramping up: complete lockdown with mandatory quarantine for all people travelling, with significant fines if people break it. Until a majority of the population in all countries are vaccinated. I see only two viable outcomes. Either we do what I said above and accept a boring life for 3-9 months. Or Covid will continue to mutate and this will affect the world for years or longer, as vaccines need to be updated and populations need to be boosted with updated vaccines, whack-a-mole-style.
- UncleOxidant 6y ago
  Totally agree. I see no reason why people think they have to take international flights at this point. Of course, if we had done what you're saying a year ago we wouldn't be in this mess.
  - titzer 6y ago
    So you are saying that we sacrificed long-term consequences for short-term gains? When did that ever happen? /s
  - TheRealSteel 6y ago
    You really can't think of any reason someone would have to take an international flight, ever? What about their visa expiring, them not being in their home country, them not having infinite unlimited free money to support themselves indefinitely in a country they have no right to work in? What about having a severely ill relative? Funerals? Weddings? There are over 40,000 Australians stranded around the world alone, and our population isn't that large. I was one of them until today. Alot of people say what you said, when they really mean "I don't PERSONALLY" need to take any international flights. I agree with Covid-zero as a policy. I do not agree with leaving a person stranded and stateless, or unable to travel for legitimate and important reasons.
- rhino369 6y ago
  We’ve only been able to eradicate a single virus in the entire history of man. And it took 100 years.
mrfusion 6y ago
Unpopular opinion: Viruses have been with us for our whole human history. At some point we just have to go back to coexisting with them.
- dagmx 6y ago
  This is nonsensical unless you purposefully ignore the difference between benign and harmful viruses. You can't coexist with something that kills you. Humans could choose to let viruses do their thing. Viruses can't choose to let humans do their thing.
  - choward 6y ago
    > You can't coexist with something that kills you. Citation needed.
- pxue 6y ago
  Follow up unpopular opinion: At some point we got so obsessed with extending the human existence we forgot how to live with the little time we've got. 60s is the new 40 sounds nice but really it's a sad state.
- majewsky 6y ago
  Epidemics are a relatively new phenomenon as far as human evolution is concerned. Within a purely human set of hosts, germs don't feel evolutionary pressure to become more deadly. If anything, it's advantageous for a germ to be less deadly. The most successful viruses are the common cold viruses, not SARS or Ebola. Epidemics only really became a thing once we started domesticating animals and therefore being around live animals for prolonged periods of time. This allowed germs originally adapted to these animals the opportunity to jump over to human hosts, for which they may be more dangerous than for the original host animal. For more details on this point, I can recommend this video on why the native Americans were killed by diseases imported by the European conquerors, but the conquerors didn't bring any deadly diseases back to Europe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEYh5WACqEk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEYh5WACqEk
LeanderK 6y ago
I think we need to prepare ourselves for a longer fight with the coronavirus. RNA-vaccines can be quickly adapted and interesting vaccines are currently in studies (e.g. the CureVac one, which does not need to get refrigerated in very low temperatures like the Pfizer). We should invest again in expanding production to guard against new mutants, so that if a shot to update our immunity is needed again, sufficiently large quantities can be produced very quickly. This may be tricky for companies, maybe another governmental aid would be necessary? I think people are getting very weary of the pandemic, I certainly notice it. In germany it would be very hard to survive a summer or next winter in lockdown without people going craz in my opinion. I hope politicians are planning ahead.
- the-dude 6y ago
  > I hope politicians are planning ahead. Excuse me?
  - e40 6y ago
    I get it, but maybe politicians in Germany are a little less short sighted than those in the US (where I am).
    - majewsky 6y ago
      Curb your enthusiasm. German politicians are currently busy reopening schools and hairdressers as the third wave is starting to hit. The vaccine rollout is going frustratingly slow as well, with vaccination rates at 3-4% first dose and 2% second dose, because our politicians were more concerned with saving a few euros on the price per dose than on ramping up production capacity quickly.
      - Exmoor 6y ago
        This is the second time today I'm seeing something about a new wave in Germany, but I'm just not seeing this born out in the overall data for the country [0]. Looking at the data I see a continued decline since mid to late December, albeit slightly flattening a bit in recent weeks. Are these more localized waves that wouldn't be apparent to an American not looking at more granular dashboards? What am I missing. [0] https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/de https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/de

29 points by chewz 6y ago

gotoeleven 6y ago

The real question is if we will be able to resist this latest round of fear porn from the news media.

TaupeRanger 6y ago
By "fear porn" do you mean "updating the population as to the latest state of the worldwide pandemic in which half a million Americans have died in 11 months even while social precautions were in place"?
- throwaway20875 6y ago
  The death tracker that was glued to the shot of some cable news programs 24/7 in the US is an example of fear porn. The model used by modern media is indefensible. It's the same with social media. Unprincipled and willing to do anything to attract viewership/engagement.
  - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
    The US did far too little to control the spread of the virus, which is why half a million Americans have died. The problem wasn't that people were too scared. It was that there wasn't coordinated, decisive action - specifically, a strict lockdown for several weeks in early 2020 to bring incidence to near zero, followed by rigorous contact-tracing and snuffing out of outbreaks as they occurred. China did this, and as a consequence, fewer than 5000 people have died there, and people have been able to go about their lives more normally for the last year.
    - BrianOnHN 6y ago
      It's [actually not] funny the same people that oppose this are the same ones that think they have the right to: 1. Consequence-less broadcasting of any speech (i.e., sympathizing with nazis and lying to vulnerable people about life-threatening illness). 2. Unfettered access to life-ending technology (guns) 3. Unwavering support for unborn lives. Smh
      - testesttest 6y ago
        Lots of assumtions. Maybe, they just want their kid to be able to return to school. Also, this response is the reason for the anon account. People on the internet are quick to categorize and demonize.
      - Gravey 6y ago
        While there may be some strong arguments for the China approach to COVID management, I’m not sure I find your enumerated list of ad-hominem strawmans and head shaking very convincing.
    - throwaway20875 6y ago
      Yes, you're right - in order to take more effective action we need to plaster a running death count to the TV screen 24/7 for every American media consumer to view. Time Warner/Comcast/Viacom/Fox know what's best for us and it has absolutely nothing to do with them manipulating emotions for profit.
      - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
        It's just not been my impression at all that people are too worried in the US about the number of deaths. Quite the opposite, actually. The most stunning aspect of the pandemic, to me, has been how American society has accepted half a million deaths. I would have considered that unthinkable just a year ago.
        throwaway20875 6y ago
        I agree with you. But COVID is not unique: people have been dying unnecessary deaths in this country for a long time, and have accelerated in recent years. Go read up on deaths of despair. Look at the rise in healthcare costs, or how unhealthy our food is. It's no wonder that a society of unhealthy, isolated, and stressed people are succumbing to a disease that kills those with suppressed immune systems.
        DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
        The reason for the large number of deaths in the US is not that Americans have suppressed immune systems, are stressed, or are otherwise unhealthy. It's that the virus has been allowed to spread. The infection fatality rate in the US is not 500x higher than in China. The number of infections per capita is, however. The difference is that one country had a strict lockdown, followed by rigorous contact tracing, and the other did not.
        throwaway20875 6y ago
        I think other Western nations are better comparisons for a number of reasons. I don't think discussing China's approach is a productive conversation. >The reason for the large number of deaths in the US is not that Americans have suppressed immune systems, are stressed, or are otherwise unhealthy. I disagree. And even if we were to stop COVID from killing so many, it's reckless to consider this as not a significant contributor to any unnecessary deaths. New variants of existing diseases are inevitable.
  - BrianOnHN 6y ago
    I'm curious, why did you post from a throwaway to express this sentiment?
    - throwaway20875 6y ago
      I use only a throwaway account. I'd rather stay anonymous, especially when I cannot delete my posts.
      - BrianOnHN 6y ago
        If what you have to say isn't worth your reputation, then maybe you should think twice before spreading that same thought to real [and often vulnerable] people on the still-nascent internet.
        throwaway20875 6y ago
        >If what you have to say isn't worth your reputation Because I believe the current trajectory of society will place more than just my reputation at risk for expressing my thoughts. Make of that what you will.
        BrianOnHN 6y ago
        Don't worry, people already know who you are, and you'll get what you deserve no matter how much you try to hide it.
        throwaway20875 6y ago
        >Don't worry, people already know who you are, and you'll get what you deserve no matter how much you try to hide it. That's going to be yikes from me, dog. Thank you for driving home my point, though. I don't think you're aware of how dangerous your mentality is and where it leads. I'd suggest to you that I am not your enemy and we likely have a lot of common ground. I don't think the US handled COVID well and I don't like to see others suffer so needlessly. I also think that there are many things we can do to prevent further diseases such as reduce our dependency on factory farming and to invest more in improving the general health of our country. I don't suspect you'd disagree with those thoughts.
- ravenstine 6y ago
  That's a massive oversimplification. Not only does this ignore the incentive structure of the media to make a story out of things that are not necessarily a story, but it doesn't factor in the general ignorance of the public and how these things like "mutants" and "variants" affect their psyche. An average IQ American, anyway, doesn't have a good grasp of how many people regularly die of things besides old age, so when you tell them every single day that X number of people are dying and that there are these scary sounding "variants", what you are effectively doing is brainwashing them. Go out and ask random people what they think about the pandemic, and it's common that they think that they are at risk of death even if the data from the CDC demonstrates that they aren't. Heck, there are smart people on HN who can't assess risk particularly well. When the media is constantly drumming COVID into everyone's heads while glossing over the fact that far fewer people are dying now, at the expense of other news items and at the ignorance of other epidemics killing people, yes, that's fear porn.
  - healinpor 6y ago
    Tbf human beings do not assess risk well with or without the presence of media. Our psychology is not well equipped to handle it. That's not to say media doesn't make it worse.
  - simonh 6y ago
    Yes it’s true the media has an incentive to play up threats, but does that mean there are no threats, or that all the threats they report can be discounted? Mutated virus strains that are dramatically more virulent and possibly more deadly are scary. This is the virus evolving to better target its host. There’s nothing irrational about being concerned by that. It’s true fewer people are dying right now, but it’s still thousands of people per day in the US and still hundreds a day here in the UK. Those are not good numbers. I’d love to know how the relatives of those thousands of people who died today would react to you saying they were not at significant risk. If some of the current vaccines offer reduced protection against some of the new strains that’s a big deal that people need to be informed about.
- mrfusion 6y ago
  Do you really believe the job of the media is to update the population? Isn’t it rather to maximize viewership, clicks, and profit?
  - harambae 6y ago
    I believe previous generations' media had higher journalistic ideals than today's clickbait. They were by no means flawless back in the day (plenty of cases where they covered up things, like FDR's physical health). But they didn't see themselves as infotainment the way so much of cable news appears to, or nakedly pander to one side. But I also don't imagine they had quite the same type of ruthless competition as today. So maybe we're all just products of our times.
- IAmGraydon 6y ago
  It is fear porn. There have been THOUSANDS of known mutations throughout this pandemic. The “UK strain” has been known since September 2020. Did anyone talk about it? Do you think it’s a coincidence that this suddenly became a huge topic in the media literally the week the vaccine was rolled out? https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=Covid%20mutation https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=Covid%20mu...
- bobthechef 6y ago
  The real number is debatable because of defective tallying practices where coronavirus is given as cause of death even if there was no specific reason for doing so; hospitals are incentivized to do so because it results in funding. But aside from that, let's not be so naive, eh? The media runs on sensationalism. The pandemic has been grossly mismanaged and there is absolutely no reason for the draconian lock down we're under. There hasn't been for 10 months. It was justifiable in the beginning because we didn't know what we were dealing with, but we have a much better grasp now and we know who is at risk to permit a much more fine-grained approach. Furthermore, much of the media fear mongering is driven by an ignorance of immunology and epidemiology. We have to remind ourselves that what we often "know" about the world beyond our own local lives is what we glean from the media filter. We should always approach that kind of knowledge with a bit of humility and caution. Journalists are not, shall we say, the creme-de-la-creme. There's also the political angle. As Rahm Emanuel once said, you shouldn't let a crisis go to waste. There is a great deal to be made during a pandemic like this, monetarily, socially, politically, and otherwise, the so-called Great Reset[0] functioning as perhaps the paradigmatic example, whatever you happen to know or think of it. Put yourself in the shoes of an ambitious but morally unscrupulous politician or billionaire. Would you so easily end the pandemic given the opportunities it presents, given how rare of an opportunity it poses for doing things you could not do under the usual circumstances? Even if you weren't quite sure what to do with it, you would at least have the instinct to know that the rarity of the situation merits careful consideration, though in this case, you would have had plenty of time to consider them (and frankly, think tanks are in the business of anticipating things; there are no doubt papers that describe how, if a certain set of circumstances were to emerge, certain political goals could be realized). So yeah, announcing variants of COVID is fine per se, as long as such things are contextualized. The media is often an instrument of decontextualization which leads to confusion and poor judgement (just think about how they report scientific articles, not as one exchange in the cacophony of scientific publications, but as some Definitive Judgement of The Science!). At this point, I have no problem acknowledging the merit in the OP's quip, namely, not that we be cynical, but that it's high time we started employing some common sense instead of just drinking the media Koolaid. [0] https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/ https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/
breck 6y ago
Wait until they learn that every human every second generates 50,000 harmful genetic mutations! Think of all the vaccines we're going to need!
dennis_jeeves 6y ago
An emphatic no. --------- Applied misanthropy: https://atlantis5.home.blog/ https://atlantis5.home.blog/ --------

lumost 6y ago

Studies on the ability of the new vaccines to confer resistance to mutated covid strains are desperately needed. It will be difficult to hold the line on current covid policy through the end of 2021, most of the people I know are focused on just making it another 2-3 months to when they can get a vaccine.

abacadaba 6y ago
Just build up the capacity to produce 8 billion mRNA vaccines a month and we should be able to react quick enough to whatever pops up. Easy.
- lmilcin 6y ago
  The issue with vaccines is that the human immune system has limited capacity to learn viruses. Once it learns a virus it has hard time learning a similar one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin
  - abacadaba 6y ago
    Well that sucks. Interesting that they use flu as the example for this yet we still give out flu shots. Partly why they're only 50% effective? Also if the second dose increases the memory response could we be better off in the long run with a 1 dose initial vaccine?
    - lmilcin 6y ago
      Immune system forgets about flu after some time. But when you want to get flu shot before season it is a little bit of a game whether you get the right shot for what is going to be prevalent strain this year.
  - LeanderK 6y ago
    is it really a limited capacity or just a large bias that results in slow learning? If so maybe again two shots of vaccines are needed to "update" the immune system. The well-being whole world is at stake, i hope we figure something out.

bjeds 6y ago

The cat is already out of the bag and IMHO the only correct solution now is for all countries to do what they should have done in December already when the vaccinations started ramping up: complete lockdown with mandatory quarantine for all people travelling, with significant fines if people break it. Until a majority of the population in all countries are vaccinated. I see only two viable outcomes. Either we do what I said above and accept a boring life for 3-9 months. Or Covid will continue to mutate and this will affect the world for years or longer, as vaccines need to be updated and populations need to be boosted with updated vaccines, whack-a-mole-style.

UncleOxidant 6y ago
Totally agree. I see no reason why people think they have to take international flights at this point. Of course, if we had done what you're saying a year ago we wouldn't be in this mess.
- titzer 6y ago
  So you are saying that we sacrificed long-term consequences for short-term gains? When did that ever happen? /s
- TheRealSteel 6y ago
  You really can't think of any reason someone would have to take an international flight, ever? What about their visa expiring, them not being in their home country, them not having infinite unlimited free money to support themselves indefinitely in a country they have no right to work in? What about having a severely ill relative? Funerals? Weddings? There are over 40,000 Australians stranded around the world alone, and our population isn't that large. I was one of them until today. Alot of people say what you said, when they really mean "I don't PERSONALLY" need to take any international flights. I agree with Covid-zero as a policy. I do not agree with leaving a person stranded and stateless, or unable to travel for legitimate and important reasons.
rhino369 6y ago
We’ve only been able to eradicate a single virus in the entire history of man. And it took 100 years.

mrfusion 6y ago

Unpopular opinion: Viruses have been with us for our whole human history. At some point we just have to go back to coexisting with them.

dagmx 6y ago
This is nonsensical unless you purposefully ignore the difference between benign and harmful viruses. You can't coexist with something that kills you. Humans could choose to let viruses do their thing. Viruses can't choose to let humans do their thing.
- choward 6y ago
  > You can't coexist with something that kills you. Citation needed.
pxue 6y ago
Follow up unpopular opinion: At some point we got so obsessed with extending the human existence we forgot how to live with the little time we've got. 60s is the new 40 sounds nice but really it's a sad state.
majewsky 6y ago
Epidemics are a relatively new phenomenon as far as human evolution is concerned. Within a purely human set of hosts, germs don't feel evolutionary pressure to become more deadly. If anything, it's advantageous for a germ to be less deadly. The most successful viruses are the common cold viruses, not SARS or Ebola. Epidemics only really became a thing once we started domesticating animals and therefore being around live animals for prolonged periods of time. This allowed germs originally adapted to these animals the opportunity to jump over to human hosts, for which they may be more dangerous than for the original host animal. For more details on this point, I can recommend this video on why the native Americans were killed by diseases imported by the European conquerors, but the conquerors didn't bring any deadly diseases back to Europe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEYh5WACqEk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEYh5WACqEk

LeanderK 6y ago

I think we need to prepare ourselves for a longer fight with the coronavirus. RNA-vaccines can be quickly adapted and interesting vaccines are currently in studies (e.g. the CureVac one, which does not need to get refrigerated in very low temperatures like the Pfizer). We should invest again in expanding production to guard against new mutants, so that if a shot to update our immunity is needed again, sufficiently large quantities can be produced very quickly. This may be tricky for companies, maybe another governmental aid would be necessary? I think people are getting very weary of the pandemic, I certainly notice it. In germany it would be very hard to survive a summer or next winter in lockdown without people going craz in my opinion. I hope politicians are planning ahead.

the-dude 6y ago
> I hope politicians are planning ahead. Excuse me?
- e40 6y ago
  I get it, but maybe politicians in Germany are a little less short sighted than those in the US (where I am).
  - majewsky 6y ago
    Curb your enthusiasm. German politicians are currently busy reopening schools and hairdressers as the third wave is starting to hit. The vaccine rollout is going frustratingly slow as well, with vaccination rates at 3-4% first dose and 2% second dose, because our politicians were more concerned with saving a few euros on the price per dose than on ramping up production capacity quickly.
    - Exmoor 6y ago
      This is the second time today I'm seeing something about a new wave in Germany, but I'm just not seeing this born out in the overall data for the country [0]. Looking at the data I see a continued decline since mid to late December, albeit slightly flattening a bit in recent weeks. Are these more localized waves that wouldn't be apparent to an American not looking at more granular dashboards? What am I missing. [0] https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/de https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/de