4 ms·

Note the twin charts. Big difference between odds of global elimination vs local elimination. 39% of experts think local elimination likely, a further group thi

by graeme 6y ago

Note the twin charts. Big difference between odds of global elimination vs local elimination. 39% of experts think local elimination likely, a further group think it is possible. And it plainly is, a bunch of places have done it. Once we have vaccines widely it will be much easier to get rid of. Any country that succeeds in getting rid of it locally can have reciprocal travel arrangements with other countries or require proof of vaccination for entry. This is already common in many countries as a travel or visa requirement so it’s not outlandish to imagine countries with no virus locally may add vaccination as a requirement. The virus is seasonal too. So once you have a good chunk of the population immune it should be feasible to eliminate it in summer via testing and contact tracing. Global elimination would be much harder, but it’s not crazy to imagine there being a growing group of countries that stay covid free and maintain it via travel restrictions on those places that have large outbreaks. Due to possible future pandemics countries will probably have more viral border control anyway. This doesn’t necessarily entail a massive reduction in travel; so for clarity that’s not what I’m advocating above.

dbetteridge 6y ago
As with most endemic viruses though, unless you hit a level of herd immunity you don't "get rid of it". It continues on in humans without immunity who may not show symptoms and in animal reservoirs (minks, ferrets etc seems to be the case for COVID). Unless we inoculate children as well as adults we are unlikely to hit herd immunity (based on the values thrown around of needing 85-95% coverage for an 80% efficacy vaccine)
- bpodgursky 6y ago
  Based on low in-school transmission rates, it's not obvious that the disease has a natural R > 1.0 among children (likely, because there is strong evidence that asymptomatic cases, which children generally get, have low transmission).
- bluGill 6y ago
  Vaccines for children are in study phases now and expected late this year (for 12+, next year for the next group). Of course we need herd immunity, but signs are showing it is possible. The animal reservoirs are a real concern though.

by graeme 6y ago

dbetteridge 6y ago

As with most endemic viruses though, unless you hit a level of herd immunity you don't "get rid of it". It continues on in humans without immunity who may not show symptoms and in animal reservoirs (minks, ferrets etc seems to be the case for COVID). Unless we inoculate children as well as adults we are unlikely to hit herd immunity (based on the values thrown around of needing 85-95% coverage for an 80% efficacy vaccine)

bpodgursky 6y ago
Based on low in-school transmission rates, it's not obvious that the disease has a natural R > 1.0 among children (likely, because there is strong evidence that asymptomatic cases, which children generally get, have low transmission).
bluGill 6y ago
Vaccines for children are in study phases now and expected late this year (for 12+, next year for the next group). Of course we need herd immunity, but signs are showing it is possible. The animal reservoirs are a real concern though.