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> “Eradicating this virus right now from the world is a lot like trying to plan the construction of a stepping-stone pathway to the Moon. It’s unrealistic,” say

> “Eradicating this virus right now from the world is a lot like trying to plan the construction of a stepping-stone pathway to the Moon. It’s unrealistic,” says Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis. Name one way in which eradicating the virus is a lot like trying to plan the construction of a stepping-stone pathway to the Moon...

appletrotter 6y ago
"It's unrealistic."
- leokennis 6y ago
  In that way, trying to plan the construction of a stepping-stone pathway to the Moon is a lot like slicing 20.000.000 tomatoes and using the slices to build a cathedral in the desert for Mike McGear, Paul McCartney’s younger brother: it’s unrealistic.
  - mumblemumble 6y ago
    Not every simile is an analogy.
jbjbjbjb 6y ago
I’ve not heard anyone actually explain why eradication is unrealistic.
- faitswulff 6y ago
  Mostly because the virus evolves, it’s global, and various countries have differing containment strategies and vaccination capacity. Again, it evolves so whatever the most successful variant is will take root in areas which have poor containment and evolve again. Unless we can contain it and vaccinate against the latest variants globally and all at once, it will likely persist in some form or another. Here's a good article on viral escape: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/interactive/2021/vaccination-pace-herd-immunity/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/interactive/2021/vacci...
- Mediterraneo10 6y ago
  Unlike smallpox, the only virus that humankind has successfully eradicated, there are animal reservoirs for COVID-19.
  - skynet-9000 6y ago
    > Unlike smallpox, the only virus that humankind has successfully eradicated, there are animal reservoirs for COVID-19. there are, or there might be? Is there any evidence that COVID-19 exists in an animal population in any significant density? And, if so, couldn't that population just be quickly culled? Many different viruses (far more deadly than COVID-19) are known to exist in bats and guano, but they rarely escape into the larger human population. Not to say never, but the cross-over is rare and seems to be reducible with increased education.
- chubot 6y ago
  Looks like the first effort to eradicate smallpox was in 1950, and then by 1975 it existed only in Africa. Victory was declared in 1980. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#Eradication https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#Eradication Obviously every disease is different, but since it's only been done twice EVER, I would learn toward the burden of proof being on those to explain why it's realistic, not for those to explain why it's UNrealistic. I would summarize it as "The world is very big and there are a lot of people and places that got infected" ...
- standardUser 6y ago
  This coronavirus can pass to/from non-human species, which makes eliminating "reservoirs" of the virus impossible with current technology.
shirakawasuna 6y ago
The ruling powers have no interest in doing it. This is more a political problem than a technical one. Many similar choices have been made to go down the path we're currently on: - To treat it as a "third world" issue, as such diseases often are, rather than taking it seriously. Like Sweden health officials believing their cultural superiority alone would protect them. - Focus on scapegoating China rather than adopt appropriate measures at home, those recommended by the WHO over a year ago and only implemented in places that have now had some successes - China, Vietnam, South Korea, New Zealand... - Delayed lockdowns that reopen early without any appropriate tracking capabilities. They reopen early to satisfy short-term profit motives and little else: businesses reopening (like Europe for tourist season) and desperate people having few options outside of taking unnecessary jobs that interface with the public - itself a product of not paying people to stay home during a global pandemic. - The building of a denialist movement that aligns well with corporate-friendly political movements. Different flavors of denialism for different political movements. e.g. anti-maskers doing protests vs. Fauci casting doubt about masks early on, likely to protect PPE supplies for healthcare workers, as strategic stockpiles had been devastated by decades of neoliberalism. - Zero international consequences for countries that ignore these rules and become large reservoirs of virus. - Vaccine availability falling along typical colonial lines, benefiting rich white people within and between countries. - The decision to privatize vaccine production, prioritizing intellectual property over availability. Consequently, long delays in production, national resources going to purchase vaccine rather than directly ramping up production, and an intellectual property regime that treats other countries using information about these vaccines to protect their populations like it's some kind of horrible crime or strategic disadvantage. The issue here is that the solutions to our collective problem, here, are all at odds with the established economic hegemony. There is a very direct conflict between people staying home and an economic system that depends on forcing people into low-paying jobs rather than waiting out economic downturns (or a pandemic) with a robust safety net. There is a very direct conflict between an international financial system that has been pushing for the prioritization of IP over national interest for decades (it's actually a very recent development that there would be any expectation that, say, India respect the US's IP let alone prioritize it over public health) and collaborative worldwide efforts to eradicate the virus. There is a very direct conflict between (nearly) everyone staying home and an economy largely driven by demand for unnecessary in-person services, something you see every time there's an article on the plight of restaurants and restaurant workers. The only way out of this is to luck out with vaccine efficacy (though vaccines are on track to be available to all nations on the order of years, not months), additionally luck out with unexpectedly wide and equitable production and distribution (making it months not years), or a dramatic shift away from a profit-dominated regime (people get to protect themselves but the economy must be, at least temporarily, reconfigured to handle lower demand and growth).

appletrotter 6y ago

"It's unrealistic."

leokennis 6y ago
In that way, trying to plan the construction of a stepping-stone pathway to the Moon is a lot like slicing 20.000.000 tomatoes and using the slices to build a cathedral in the desert for Mike McGear, Paul McCartney’s younger brother: it’s unrealistic.
- mumblemumble 6y ago
  Not every simile is an analogy.

jbjbjbjb 6y ago

I’ve not heard anyone actually explain why eradication is unrealistic.

faitswulff 6y ago
Mostly because the virus evolves, it’s global, and various countries have differing containment strategies and vaccination capacity. Again, it evolves so whatever the most successful variant is will take root in areas which have poor containment and evolve again. Unless we can contain it and vaccinate against the latest variants globally and all at once, it will likely persist in some form or another. Here's a good article on viral escape: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/interactive/2021/vaccination-pace-herd-immunity/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/interactive/2021/vacci...
Mediterraneo10 6y ago
Unlike smallpox, the only virus that humankind has successfully eradicated, there are animal reservoirs for COVID-19.
- skynet-9000 6y ago
  > Unlike smallpox, the only virus that humankind has successfully eradicated, there are animal reservoirs for COVID-19. there are, or there might be? Is there any evidence that COVID-19 exists in an animal population in any significant density? And, if so, couldn't that population just be quickly culled? Many different viruses (far more deadly than COVID-19) are known to exist in bats and guano, but they rarely escape into the larger human population. Not to say never, but the cross-over is rare and seems to be reducible with increased education.
chubot 6y ago
Looks like the first effort to eradicate smallpox was in 1950, and then by 1975 it existed only in Africa. Victory was declared in 1980. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#Eradication https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#Eradication Obviously every disease is different, but since it's only been done twice EVER, I would learn toward the burden of proof being on those to explain why it's realistic, not for those to explain why it's UNrealistic. I would summarize it as "The world is very big and there are a lot of people and places that got infected" ...
standardUser 6y ago
This coronavirus can pass to/from non-human species, which makes eliminating "reservoirs" of the virus impossible with current technology.

shirakawasuna 6y ago

The ruling powers have no interest in doing it. This is more a political problem than a technical one. Many similar choices have been made to go down the path we're currently on: - To treat it as a "third world" issue, as such diseases often are, rather than taking it seriously. Like Sweden health officials believing their cultural superiority alone would protect them. - Focus on scapegoating China rather than adopt appropriate measures at home, those recommended by the WHO over a year ago and only implemented in places that have now had some successes - China, Vietnam, South Korea, New Zealand... - Delayed lockdowns that reopen early without any appropriate tracking capabilities. They reopen early to satisfy short-term profit motives and little else: businesses reopening (like Europe for tourist season) and desperate people having few options outside of taking unnecessary jobs that interface with the public - itself a product of not paying people to stay home during a global pandemic. - The building of a denialist movement that aligns well with corporate-friendly political movements. Different flavors of denialism for different political movements. e.g. anti-maskers doing protests vs. Fauci casting doubt about masks early on, likely to protect PPE supplies for healthcare workers, as strategic stockpiles had been devastated by decades of neoliberalism. - Zero international consequences for countries that ignore these rules and become large reservoirs of virus. - Vaccine availability falling along typical colonial lines, benefiting rich white people within and between countries. - The decision to privatize vaccine production, prioritizing intellectual property over availability. Consequently, long delays in production, national resources going to purchase vaccine rather than directly ramping up production, and an intellectual property regime that treats other countries using information about these vaccines to protect their populations like it's some kind of horrible crime or strategic disadvantage. The issue here is that the solutions to our collective problem, here, are all at odds with the established economic hegemony. There is a very direct conflict between people staying home and an economic system that depends on forcing people into low-paying jobs rather than waiting out economic downturns (or a pandemic) with a robust safety net. There is a very direct conflict between an international financial system that has been pushing for the prioritization of IP over national interest for decades (it's actually a very recent development that there would be any expectation that, say, India respect the US's IP let alone prioritize it over public health) and collaborative worldwide efforts to eradicate the virus. There is a very direct conflict between (nearly) everyone staying home and an economy largely driven by demand for unnecessary in-person services, something you see every time there's an article on the plight of restaurants and restaurant workers. The only way out of this is to luck out with vaccine efficacy (though vaccines are on track to be available to all nations on the order of years, not months), additionally luck out with unexpectedly wide and equitable production and distribution (making it months not years), or a dramatic shift away from a profit-dominated regime (people get to protect themselves but the economy must be, at least temporarily, reconfigured to handle lower demand and growth).