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What I read was a story of making money from some niche prediction market sites (that I would never touch). There is also quite a bit of handwaving, eg "I saw m

What I read was a story of making money from some niche prediction market sites (that I would never touch). There is also quite a bit of handwaving, eg "I saw more and more arguments from Very Smart People whom I respected arguing that the markets were in fact being irrational and I should participate and bet against them if I can. Eventually, I was convinced." and showing some math from trivial arbitrary scenarios the author poses (nothing to do with the story). This then dovetails into how ETH is a good bet because, they know some calculus? This is crypto-promotion, plain and simple.

avarun 6y ago
...it's written by Vitalik Buterin. Of course he thinks Ethereum is good?
- lucasverra 6y ago
  Vitalik is Ethereum founder
- vonwoodson 6y ago
  Thank you for pointing out the obvious: That even on HN people talk before they know even they tiniest thing about who or what they are talking about.
  - Supermancho 6y ago
    > That even on HN people talk before they know even they tiniest thing about who or what they are talking about. Regardless of the author (I don't bother to google every author) the content is as stated. It's a crypto-ad and not much else.
    - drdeca 6y ago
      I think the expectation of the article is that the reader knows who the author is, and therefore expects the article to be pro ETH , insofar as it mentions it.
lunatuna 6y ago
I think the fascinating part of this article is in the third paragraph: ". . . I would make all of these remaining bets, against willing counterparties, after Trump had already lost the election." I wasn't expecting that. But we are in GME and WSB phase of markets. I guess I have a lot of catching up to do.
- ketamine__ 6y ago
  Many people felt Polymarket resolved the market too early after the election was called. They then setup another market where the question was whether Trump would be inaugurated. It was possible to make 20% on that market at one point. I wouldn't compare it to GME and WSB though. It's still stupid.
  - chillacy 6y ago
    Then after he wasn’t they set up yet another market asking if Trump would be the sitting president in March 2021. It returns 5% or so in only a few short months.

avarun 6y ago

...it's written by Vitalik Buterin. Of course he thinks Ethereum is good?

lucasverra 6y ago
Vitalik is Ethereum founder
vonwoodson 6y ago
Thank you for pointing out the obvious: That even on HN people talk before they know even they tiniest thing about who or what they are talking about.
- Supermancho 6y ago
  > That even on HN people talk before they know even they tiniest thing about who or what they are talking about. Regardless of the author (I don't bother to google every author) the content is as stated. It's a crypto-ad and not much else.
  - drdeca 6y ago
    I think the expectation of the article is that the reader knows who the author is, and therefore expects the article to be pro ETH , insofar as it mentions it.

lunatuna 6y ago

I think the fascinating part of this article is in the third paragraph: ". . . I would make all of these remaining bets, against willing counterparties, after Trump had already lost the election." I wasn't expecting that. But we are in GME and WSB phase of markets. I guess I have a lot of catching up to do.

ketamine__ 6y ago
Many people felt Polymarket resolved the market too early after the election was called. They then setup another market where the question was whether Trump would be inaugurated. It was possible to make 20% on that market at one point. I wouldn't compare it to GME and WSB though. It's still stupid.
- chillacy 6y ago
  Then after he wasn’t they set up yet another market asking if Trump would be the sitting president in March 2021. It returns 5% or so in only a few short months.