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I've always had the impression that the cryptocurrency community was trending rightwards. So it's good to see some quantifiable evidence of it. Which leaves th

I've always had the impression that the cryptocurrency community was trending rightwards. So it's good to see some quantifiable evidence of it. Which leaves the question: why? Technology as a whole is centre-left, so there's something else going on. One common theme seems to a loss of trust in any institutions, and democracy itself: "the FED is just a private bank" isn't far away from "the mainstream media is lying", and even the latter is an opinion more common among the crypto bubble as far as I can tell. Or are crytocurrencies of interest primarily to people interested in "getting rich, fast" and therefore liable to glorify a self-annoited master of making money with little work?

Fireflite 6y ago
The enormously wasteful environmental cost of PoW is certainly a turn off to those of us on the left as well.
whatshisface 6y ago
That's not quantifiable evidence of a political bias. You win in a prediction market by guessing who will win, not by stating who you want to win.
- avarun 6y ago
  Right, and as mentioned in the article: The markets were guessing Trump would win after he had already lost. If that's not evidence of a political bias to you I'm not sure why.
  - whatshisface 6y ago
    When hurricane forecasters predict that a hurricane will strike a city, would that be evidence of their pro-hurricane bias? If they were consistently overeager to predict hurricane strikes, would that be evidence that they supported hurricanes, or merely were overcalibrated to predicting them?
    - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
      If a forecaster saw a hurricane make landfall in Texas and still gave it a 15% chance of hitting Alabama, that'd be pretty far beyond simple poor calibration, and I think it'd be justified to ask some pointed questions about why they're so dedicated to their bad prediction.
- notahacker 6y ago
  Whilst your second sentence is true, belief that Trump would be declared the winner of the election even after he lost is something highly skewed towards people inclined to believe Trump and Trumpists' claims about electoral fraud,- Mike Pence having the casting vote etc. And the most obvious reason why not enough unbiased cryptoenthusiasts were tempted to place massive bets on something already decided to correct the odds was suspicion that the oracles might be too biased in favour of Trump being the real president for them to be sure of the easy profit the odds implied
  - whatshisface 6y ago
    There's another possibility, which is that "Crypto people," are another isolated pocket separate from any mainstream faction, that come up with their own weird beliefs for their own divergent reasons. An uncorrelated niche faction would be expected to go closer to one mainstream faction's beliefs over another's about half the time.
Aqua 6y ago
I'm not sure I understand your comment. Crypto was always about freedom, and as things stand the right is advocating for freedom more than the left (gun rights, freedom of speech, smaller taxes). Crypto was always about freedom, you're liberated from the dependence on your country, bank, or whatever else it may be. Your fate is in your own hands, your wallet, your funds.
- tom_mellior 6y ago
  > the right is advocating for freedom more than the left (gun rights, freedom of speech, smaller taxes). You got that backwards: The left is advocating for freedom more than the right (freedom from gun violence, freedom from hate speech, freedom from preventable/treatable medical conditions).
  - undefined1 6y ago
    agree about freedom re: healthcare. it would also mean freedom to take risks as a creator or entrepreneur, if you don't have to rely on an employer for health insurance. the gun issue is a city vs rural thing. you don't want them in a city, but you might in the rural context. > freedom from hate speech but reframing censorship as freedom is blatantly Orwellian. also, the left is not a monolith. the liberal left advocates for free speech and liberty. aligned with freedom. the illiberal left advocates for censorship and control. the opposite of freedom.
    - UncleMeat 6y ago
      > reframing censorship as freedom is blatantly Orwellian. Why? People largely agree that things like false advertising and fraud regulations increase freedom, despite being literally censorship.
  - DC1350 6y ago
    It's a positive vs negative liberty difference. Decentralization and unregulated currency is aligned with the right wing ideas about freedom.
solveit 6y ago
Crypto understandably leans libertarian, which is increasingly becoming orthogonal to the right-left axis of American politics.
DC1350 6y ago
Why do you believe that technology is centre-left? Crypto is basically a libertarian fantasy come true.
- pessimizer 6y ago
  Center-left is a liberal euphemism for normal. It's what you assume everybody is when you're part of the urban middle-class and don't really talk about politics.
TLightful 6y ago
"trending rightwards" .... LOL!!! ...
voldacar 6y ago
> Technology as a whole is centre-left or maybe it just isn't and crypto is a counter example? not sure why it has to be an axiom that tech is "Centre-left" especially considering the historical relativity of terms like right and left

Fireflite 6y ago

The enormously wasteful environmental cost of PoW is certainly a turn off to those of us on the left as well.

whatshisface 6y ago

That's not quantifiable evidence of a political bias. You win in a prediction market by guessing who will win, not by stating who you want to win.

avarun 6y ago
Right, and as mentioned in the article: The markets were guessing Trump would win after he had already lost. If that's not evidence of a political bias to you I'm not sure why.
- whatshisface 6y ago
  When hurricane forecasters predict that a hurricane will strike a city, would that be evidence of their pro-hurricane bias? If they were consistently overeager to predict hurricane strikes, would that be evidence that they supported hurricanes, or merely were overcalibrated to predicting them?
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    If a forecaster saw a hurricane make landfall in Texas and still gave it a 15% chance of hitting Alabama, that'd be pretty far beyond simple poor calibration, and I think it'd be justified to ask some pointed questions about why they're so dedicated to their bad prediction.
notahacker 6y ago
Whilst your second sentence is true, belief that Trump would be declared the winner of the election even after he lost is something highly skewed towards people inclined to believe Trump and Trumpists' claims about electoral fraud,- Mike Pence having the casting vote etc. And the most obvious reason why not enough unbiased cryptoenthusiasts were tempted to place massive bets on something already decided to correct the odds was suspicion that the oracles might be too biased in favour of Trump being the real president for them to be sure of the easy profit the odds implied
- whatshisface 6y ago
  There's another possibility, which is that "Crypto people," are another isolated pocket separate from any mainstream faction, that come up with their own weird beliefs for their own divergent reasons. An uncorrelated niche faction would be expected to go closer to one mainstream faction's beliefs over another's about half the time.

Aqua 6y ago

I'm not sure I understand your comment. Crypto was always about freedom, and as things stand the right is advocating for freedom more than the left (gun rights, freedom of speech, smaller taxes). Crypto was always about freedom, you're liberated from the dependence on your country, bank, or whatever else it may be. Your fate is in your own hands, your wallet, your funds.

tom_mellior 6y ago
> the right is advocating for freedom more than the left (gun rights, freedom of speech, smaller taxes). You got that backwards: The left is advocating for freedom more than the right (freedom from gun violence, freedom from hate speech, freedom from preventable/treatable medical conditions).
- undefined1 6y ago
  agree about freedom re: healthcare. it would also mean freedom to take risks as a creator or entrepreneur, if you don't have to rely on an employer for health insurance. the gun issue is a city vs rural thing. you don't want them in a city, but you might in the rural context. > freedom from hate speech but reframing censorship as freedom is blatantly Orwellian. also, the left is not a monolith. the liberal left advocates for free speech and liberty. aligned with freedom. the illiberal left advocates for censorship and control. the opposite of freedom.
  - UncleMeat 6y ago
    > reframing censorship as freedom is blatantly Orwellian. Why? People largely agree that things like false advertising and fraud regulations increase freedom, despite being literally censorship.
- DC1350 6y ago
  It's a positive vs negative liberty difference. Decentralization and unregulated currency is aligned with the right wing ideas about freedom.

solveit 6y ago

Crypto understandably leans libertarian, which is increasingly becoming orthogonal to the right-left axis of American politics.

DC1350 6y ago

Why do you believe that technology is centre-left? Crypto is basically a libertarian fantasy come true.

pessimizer 6y ago
Center-left is a liberal euphemism for normal. It's what you assume everybody is when you're part of the urban middle-class and don't really talk about politics.

TLightful 6y ago

"trending rightwards" .... LOL!!! ...

voldacar 6y ago

> Technology as a whole is centre-left or maybe it just isn't and crypto is a counter example? not sure why it has to be an axiom that tech is "Centre-left" especially considering the historical relativity of terms like right and left