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>>Not true, It is literally true. People who bought at $50K around this week, have to hope there are people who will buy at $60K, then those people have to hop

by kamaal 6y ago

>>Not true, It is literally true. People who bought at $50K around this week, have to hope there are people who will buy at $60K, then those people have to hope there are people who will buy at $70K, then $80K, then $90K.... From that perspective this looks like a kind of a Ponzi scheme already. Of course like most Ponzi Schemes the early investors reap massive gains. It's the ones who come later who suffer.

rawtxapp 6y ago
By your logic any investment is a ponzi scheme. You buy a stock with the hope that you'll sell it at a higher price later on, etc.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- kamaal 6y ago
  >>You buy a stock with the hope I don't buy anything on hope. I do lots of analysis fundamental and more. I invest only if the company is and will, with, enough metrics to support it will perform in the future. The stock price is backed by the health and growth of the business. The easiest way to to do this is an index fund. Which by some definitions tracks large segments of the economy itself.
  - pushrax 6y ago
    You buy based on maximum expected value for your risk tolerance and then hope you don't end up on the low end of the distribution of outcomes. Example tail outcomes: - Anti-capitalist uprising destroys all records of ownership. - Massive fraud in companies you invest in. - Competitors outside your holdings outcompete and take the market share. It's pretty reasonable to bet that these won't happen at a sufficient scale to affect you, especially with international diversification, but you do also hope they won't. Also, the stock price is backed by people's perception of the health and growth of a business, and by the price and performance of alternative assets. Pricing is hard. Obviously fundamental earning power influences price, but it's not the only or biggest force in price discovery, especially on <10y scales. As we have seen in the past year, expectations of money supply have a drastic nonlinear effect on stock prices across the market. A major (and unlikely) Fed strategy change could halve the market and keep it below ATH for a decade.
- lottin 6y ago
  Not at all. Investing in a stock is the same thing as investing in a business, since you literally own part of a business. And businesses produce income, aka profits. Bitcoin doesn't produce income. Your profits from "investing" in bitcoin can only come in the form of capital gains.
rfd4sgmk8u 6y ago
From 3rd Jan 2009 until today, "Many often lose everything" is not true. All holdings are in the money. We don't know of the future. BTC is no more a ponzi than any asset class. Take a look at https://assetdash.com/ https://assetdash.com/ BTC is currently the 6th most valuable asset class by market cap (ignoring that market cap for coin isn't quite the same thing). Literally every asset on that list fits this definition, eg: 'Hope for a greater fool'. The thing is, in all asset classes, it tends to be the way that early investors reap massive gains. Housing. Stocks. Cryptocurrency. The great thing for you is it is still very early days for Cryptocurrency. It was only invented in 2009! What should be concerning is the sustainability of a 'scheme'. When unlimited USD can be printed at the desires of the administration, how can a fixed emission asset NOT outperform something inflationary?
- kamaal 6y ago
  >>From 3rd Jan 2009 until today, "Many often lose everything" is not true. All holdings are in the money. This is correct if you bought on 3rd Jan 2009. It depends on when you bought it. Whenever you bought it, you need some ready to buy it from you at a higher price. So as long that is true, you make profit. In fact that is profit and loss by definition. >>We don't know of the future. Exactly, ensure some one will buy from you at a higher price. So as long as you do this, you should be fine. >>The thing is, in all asset classes, it tends to be the way that early investors reap massive gains. Housing. Stocks. Cryptocurrency. Not true. Take housing for example, Housing tracks people ready to stay at a place for employment and other opportunities. Its value is tied to the businesses around. Stocks themselves are tied to how the company does well. What does Bitcoin track? Electricity spent to mine it? Speculative people hoping the next idiot comes along to bail them out? Well electricity isn't exactly scarce. Supply of electricity is unlimited for all practical purposes. >>The great thing for you is it is still very early days for Cryptocurrency. It was only invented in 2009! We don't know. Only the next people ready to invest $60K for a coin can decide that. And then the ones ready to put in $70K. Eventually some body needs to be present who can put in something like a $500K or a million. >>What should be concerning is the sustainability of a 'scheme'. Indeed. >>When unlimited USD can be printed at the desires of the administration, how can a fixed emission asset NOT outperform something inflationary? Because unlike USD backed by US government and its military. Bitcoin owners are in no position to invade some country like Iraq to liquidate themselves.
oraphalous 6y ago
If you want a more nuanced understanding of the "Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme" claim then I'd highly recommend: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zT2e6dnY-Co https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zT2e6dnY-Co

by kamaal 6y ago

rawtxapp 6y ago

By your logic any investment is a ponzi scheme. You buy a stock with the hope that you'll sell it at a higher price later on, etc.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
kamaal 6y ago
>>You buy a stock with the hope I don't buy anything on hope. I do lots of analysis fundamental and more. I invest only if the company is and will, with, enough metrics to support it will perform in the future. The stock price is backed by the health and growth of the business. The easiest way to to do this is an index fund. Which by some definitions tracks large segments of the economy itself.
- pushrax 6y ago
  You buy based on maximum expected value for your risk tolerance and then hope you don't end up on the low end of the distribution of outcomes. Example tail outcomes: - Anti-capitalist uprising destroys all records of ownership. - Massive fraud in companies you invest in. - Competitors outside your holdings outcompete and take the market share. It's pretty reasonable to bet that these won't happen at a sufficient scale to affect you, especially with international diversification, but you do also hope they won't. Also, the stock price is backed by people's perception of the health and growth of a business, and by the price and performance of alternative assets. Pricing is hard. Obviously fundamental earning power influences price, but it's not the only or biggest force in price discovery, especially on <10y scales. As we have seen in the past year, expectations of money supply have a drastic nonlinear effect on stock prices across the market. A major (and unlikely) Fed strategy change could halve the market and keep it below ATH for a decade.
lottin 6y ago
Not at all. Investing in a stock is the same thing as investing in a business, since you literally own part of a business. And businesses produce income, aka profits. Bitcoin doesn't produce income. Your profits from "investing" in bitcoin can only come in the form of capital gains.

rfd4sgmk8u 6y ago

From 3rd Jan 2009 until today, "Many often lose everything" is not true. All holdings are in the money. We don't know of the future. BTC is no more a ponzi than any asset class. Take a look at https://assetdash.com/ https://assetdash.com/ BTC is currently the 6th most valuable asset class by market cap (ignoring that market cap for coin isn't quite the same thing). Literally every asset on that list fits this definition, eg: 'Hope for a greater fool'. The thing is, in all asset classes, it tends to be the way that early investors reap massive gains. Housing. Stocks. Cryptocurrency. The great thing for you is it is still very early days for Cryptocurrency. It was only invented in 2009! What should be concerning is the sustainability of a 'scheme'. When unlimited USD can be printed at the desires of the administration, how can a fixed emission asset NOT outperform something inflationary?

kamaal 6y ago
>>From 3rd Jan 2009 until today, "Many often lose everything" is not true. All holdings are in the money. This is correct if you bought on 3rd Jan 2009. It depends on when you bought it. Whenever you bought it, you need some ready to buy it from you at a higher price. So as long that is true, you make profit. In fact that is profit and loss by definition. >>We don't know of the future. Exactly, ensure some one will buy from you at a higher price. So as long as you do this, you should be fine. >>The thing is, in all asset classes, it tends to be the way that early investors reap massive gains. Housing. Stocks. Cryptocurrency. Not true. Take housing for example, Housing tracks people ready to stay at a place for employment and other opportunities. Its value is tied to the businesses around. Stocks themselves are tied to how the company does well. What does Bitcoin track? Electricity spent to mine it? Speculative people hoping the next idiot comes along to bail them out? Well electricity isn't exactly scarce. Supply of electricity is unlimited for all practical purposes. >>The great thing for you is it is still very early days for Cryptocurrency. It was only invented in 2009! We don't know. Only the next people ready to invest $60K for a coin can decide that. And then the ones ready to put in $70K. Eventually some body needs to be present who can put in something like a $500K or a million. >>What should be concerning is the sustainability of a 'scheme'. Indeed. >>When unlimited USD can be printed at the desires of the administration, how can a fixed emission asset NOT outperform something inflationary? Because unlike USD backed by US government and its military. Bitcoin owners are in no position to invade some country like Iraq to liquidate themselves.

oraphalous 6y ago

If you want a more nuanced understanding of the "Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme" claim then I'd highly recommend: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zT2e6dnY-Co https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zT2e6dnY-Co