4 ms·

I'm patiently waiting for the dismissals (it's just a fad like tulips or beanie babies), the negative permabulls (it's evil because people can use it to buy dru

by 1996 6y ago

I'm patiently waiting for the dismissals (it's just a fad like tulips or beanie babies), the negative permabulls (it's evil because people can use it to buy drugs / not pay taxes, it can't do as many TPS as Visa, it's bad for the environment...) while laughing all the way to the bank. Crypto is the HN equivalent of what the ipod was to Slashdot: "lame" to the people who think they are the typical user, who declare there is no product-market fit. Maybe after 12 years of being constantly proven wrong, it's time for the old guard to stop being luddites and concede it has been very wrong?

seibelj 6y ago
Both nocoiners and coiners are locked into their positions so hard it’s “I’ll go down with the ship” at this point. At least one side gets to be rich though!
- 1996 6y ago
  I know. I'm retired thanks to crypto. I'm glad I eventually saw how HN was wrong and learned from my mistakes. It did cost me bit of time-opportunity, but there's a point where you have "enough" and it's not worth chasing more money anymore.
  - seibelj 6y ago
    I considered retiring but it’s too boring so I just keep working in crypto. I’m a workaholic by nature. Not having a boss is great though as it allows me true freedom and the ability to work strange hours.
    - 1996 6y ago
      Same thing here: I don't have to work anymore but I chose to, with a bit of VC on the side. There are many interesting projects, and having full freedom is priceless! I try to favor project that only take crypto, not fiat, and price their products in crypto. I see that as an indicator of "understanding" the new wave.
    - Drakim 6y ago
      I kick myself over not putting more effort into getting bitcoins when I was first reading up on it. While I don't think I would retire, it would be nice to have the financial security to work on more meaningful but unprofitable projects rather than grinding my daily job.
  - mrpopo 6y ago
    > I'm retired thanks to crypto. I'm glad I eventually saw how HN was wrong I don't understand this argument. Becoming rich doesn't prove you right. A technology becoming popular doesn't make it good.
    - DSingularity 6y ago
      Really? Historically the consensus position on HN was that BTC and crypto is a short-term bubble for an asset class with no fundamental value. Seems to me that people becoming rich because the value of BTC has been going up forever is good enough proof that OP is right in swimming against the HN-current.
      - mrpopo 6y ago
        BTC going up doesn't mean it has fundamental value. It's a speculative asset with more and more people getting on board. Hedge fund managers are rich. TV personalities are rich. Many PhD students are poor. This is not people making the right decisions. This is concentration of money because of economy volatility.
        DSingularity 6y ago
        What do you consider fundamental value? Seems to me that people are willing to pay 50,000$ a BTC and companies are willing to hoard it. How is that not evidence that it has value?
        dodobirdlord 6y ago
        Productive capital. Financial speculation is fun and all but it has to remain a sideshow to the real economy, since we fundamentally rely on individuals and companies investing in the creation of more productive capital. If it ever came to pass that hodling Bitcoin was actually the best use of money because it somehow became a universal deflationary currency, then the government would have to step in and deploy its monopoly on violence to abolish Bitcoin to protect the broader economy. Speculative hoarding of deflationary gold caused the great depression and the governments of the world at the time couldn't escape the trap due to gold-backed currencies. These days we have a better understanding of the relationship between inflation/deflation, currencies, investments, and productive capital, and something like the great depression is not going to be allowed to happen again. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_(economics) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_(economics)
- kungito 6y ago
  There is also my generation where we have only recently started earning money and thinking about these things, desperately leveraging FOMO and all the other factors, trying to enter the market a bit too late but still before the next crash, wondering whether we are already too late. You could say crypto is similar to GME, but with GME anyone knowledgeable could see that it's a pump and dump because the 300$ only made sense for a very short period of time because of the shorts, while the crypto future is unclear but very promising in many regards
  - ketamine__ 6y ago
    It's never late to enter the market. It seems like a lot of people aren't happy investing in tech companies and doubling their money over the next 5-10 years. They want to take big risks and double their money now! Being impatient will likely kill your returns in the long-term. The interviews with Charlie Munger videos on YT are really good if you're interested in a sensible approach to investing.
mrpopo 6y ago
Regardless of whether you agree with all the evil stuff, the fact is that Bitcoin is generating a lot of noise, speculation, and wasting a bunch of energy for practically nothing. I know practically no one around me who has ever used Bitcoin for actual purchases other than buying drugs once. And I know literally no one who uses it in daily life. However I have a few dozen friends who bought Bitcoin because it's going to go to the moon or something.
- ur-whale 6y ago
  > I know practically no one around me ... You need to travel and/or get out of your social bubble more. I've met folks who bought houses with Bitcoin and moved millions across "money transfer unfriendly" borders.
  - mrpopo 6y ago
    I've met folks who bought houses with fiat too. Moving millions across "money transfer unfriendly" borders sounds like money laundering to me.
    - ketamine__ 6y ago
      Unless you live in Venezuela? But I would say it's true that many people in crypto do not want to pay taxes.
- bhupy 6y ago
  > ...for practically nothing > I know practically no one around me... I recommend reading a bit more about its use in countries with poor fiscal/monetary policy. https://qz.com/africa/1947769/nigeria-is-the-second-largest-bitcoin-market-after-the-us/ https://qz.com/africa/1947769/nigeria-is-the-second-largest-...
ur-whale 6y ago
Yeah, 100% with you here. I actually tremendously enjoy hearing a well constructed negative argument against Bitcoin/Crypto that presents a perspective I haven't heard a 100 times before and/or hasn't been debunked in depth. These are actually necessary given how new and different the whole shebang is. But that hasn't happened in a rather long time on HN, or if it has, it's buried 10 level of indent deep amongst HN randos parroting lame climate change arguments they've heard on reddit of FB.
- 1996 6y ago
  > I actually tremendously enjoy hearing a well constructed negative argument against Bitcoin/Crypto that presents a perspective I haven't heard a 100 times before and/or hasn't been debunked in depth. Me too! /r/Buttcoin is a nice place for that, but you must already know (as your nick looks familiar to me) My personal favorite well constructed new negative argument: like India and Nigeria, governments will try to ban crypto since it endangers their total control. It will come as a coordinated attack by OECD countries, who will need to inflate big time after Covid: they will ban all transactions to fiat accounts, and all exchanges on their territory. Counter argument: politicians (and the 1%) need to protect against inflation/taxations, so they may not all be in favor, and will leak the plan. It will cause a huge Streisand effect, as "there is no such thing as negative publicity": random Joes will buy crypto, making the plan politically undefensible.
  - audunw 6y ago
    > Counter argument: politicians (and the 1%) need to protect against inflation/taxations, so they may not all be in favor, and will leak the plan. It will cause a huge Streisand effect, as "there is no such thing as negative publicity": random Joes will buy crypto, making the plan politically undefensible. Uh, what? This makes zero sense. There is absolutely such a thing as negative publicity, especially if major governments threaten to effectively wipe out the value of Bitcoin. You could just as easily see a large fraction of the holders of Bitcoin try to cash out, to put into more safe investments while the situation stabilizes. This will probably create a crash, as Bitcoin is so prone to. More people will cash out. This will probably increase support for regulating or banning crypto exchanges. Some will already have cashed out, they're happy. Some of the ones that haven't will direct their anger against Bitcoin and support regulations. Some of the ones still holding will try to fight it, but they'll be in the minority. Most people who never invested will probably support bans ("I don't want to risk unwittingly getting hit by a crash like that in the future"). You'll probably have lots of emotional stories about grandpa losing all his savings in the media. I mean, we've seen this story over and over before in the stock markets. Someone figures out "get-rich-quick" schemes, they crash, people demand regulation. What makes anyone think that it'll be any different with cryptocurrencies once they become big enough? I think it'd be absolutely reasonable to require exchanges to guarantee that there's X% of reserves behind any cryptocurrency it trades. That'll probably kill Bitcoin, since you'd probably want to build such a requirement into the implementation of the currency. And it'll probably put a big damper on the growth of the conforming cryptocurrencies.
matwood 6y ago
Personally, I'm neutral to slightly bullish on crypto. It's reached mainstream and it looks like many companies are going to put a portion of their cash in BTC as an inflation hedge. The price will definitely fluctuate, but it does seem like a floor is being put in because of this move to the mainstream. So my advice on owing crypto, is own enough that if it goes parabolic you aren't kicking yourself later, but not so much that it breaks you if it goes to zero.
- ur-whale 6y ago
  Best advice in this entire thread: balanced, rational, apolitical. But unfortunately fails to take into account the anti-crypto fanaticism that seems to be a common ailment on HN. Put another away: some folks here would not be able to sleep at night if they followed your advice, because it'd be too much of a blow to either their moral system or to their ego because it'd be admitting they were wrong on 200 past HN posts.
NhanH 6y ago
I hold some amount of cryptocurrency. I am living in a country where some of the premise for cryptocurrency makes sense (strong capital control, banking and financial sector is ... questionable). And my intution likes the idea of cryptocurrency. But by far and large, there is no product-market fit still. And people are rational in being against it for various reason, please don't call them luddite. Personally, I'd still support crypto in the same way I'd support FSF (though much less of a support, just for clarification!). Because I think there is something there with the idea, and I like the principles. But there is a high chance the detractors are correct in their assessment.
Jochim 6y ago
That enough people have bought into the idea doesn't change the merits or issues that lead people to take their position on it in the first place. I didn't like the original iPod, I still don't, a lot of people did and do. I don't think either group is "wrong", just that we each value things differently. The same applies to Bitcoin. It doesn't offer me any tangible benefits over traditional currency and it has some major drawbacks in areas that I value. The only reason I would purchase is if I felt like gambling on speculation.
BLKNSLVR 6y ago
Whilst I think bitcoin will be around long term, it will be in somewhat of a precarious position once the proof of stake and high TPS blockchains start gathering steam. Sticking with PoW long term is my only concern about Bitcoins ability to remain relevant. I'm more bullish on Ethereum, pending successful transition to V2. Also bullish on some of the emerging competitors to Ethereum; heterogeneity provides a healthier ecosystem.
- ur-whale 6y ago
  >Sticking with PoW long term is my only concern about Bitcoins ability to remain relevant. I share your concerns, and if the whole segwit debacle is any indication, getting Bitcoin to switch away from PoW will be a political nightmare. The only thing that might get such a hard-fork deployed on Bitcoin is an extinction-level threat from a sizable competitor (e.g. ETH).
UncleMeat 6y ago
> while laughing all the way to the bank Cool. You got rich. Good for you. Why does that in any way make criticisms of environmental impact less legitimate? Loads of people have gotten rich off of systems that have unpriced negative externalities. You aren't the first. I hope that you use some of your newfound wealth to give to effective charities and help the world.
majani 6y ago
Yes. I have to confess, I have been patiently waiting since 2013 for the US government to effectively shut this shindig down in one way or another. After all this time, I have begun to reconsider my position. Tulip mania only lasted 2 years, and both the dotcom bubble and the US housing bubble only lasted 5 years. Honestly, there has to be some legs to this whole thing if it's managed to last 12 years. Might be a legitimate new store of value.
genericacct 6y ago
Did you say you laugh all the way to the _bank_? Isn't that where they store worthless fiat currency?

by 1996 6y ago

seibelj 6y ago

Both nocoiners and coiners are locked into their positions so hard it’s “I’ll go down with the ship” at this point. At least one side gets to be rich though!

1996 6y ago
I know. I'm retired thanks to crypto. I'm glad I eventually saw how HN was wrong and learned from my mistakes. It did cost me bit of time-opportunity, but there's a point where you have "enough" and it's not worth chasing more money anymore.
- seibelj 6y ago
  I considered retiring but it’s too boring so I just keep working in crypto. I’m a workaholic by nature. Not having a boss is great though as it allows me true freedom and the ability to work strange hours.
  - 1996 6y ago
    Same thing here: I don't have to work anymore but I chose to, with a bit of VC on the side. There are many interesting projects, and having full freedom is priceless! I try to favor project that only take crypto, not fiat, and price their products in crypto. I see that as an indicator of "understanding" the new wave.
  - Drakim 6y ago
    I kick myself over not putting more effort into getting bitcoins when I was first reading up on it. While I don't think I would retire, it would be nice to have the financial security to work on more meaningful but unprofitable projects rather than grinding my daily job.
- mrpopo 6y ago
  > I'm retired thanks to crypto. I'm glad I eventually saw how HN was wrong I don't understand this argument. Becoming rich doesn't prove you right. A technology becoming popular doesn't make it good.
  - DSingularity 6y ago
    Really? Historically the consensus position on HN was that BTC and crypto is a short-term bubble for an asset class with no fundamental value. Seems to me that people becoming rich because the value of BTC has been going up forever is good enough proof that OP is right in swimming against the HN-current.
    - mrpopo 6y ago
      BTC going up doesn't mean it has fundamental value. It's a speculative asset with more and more people getting on board. Hedge fund managers are rich. TV personalities are rich. Many PhD students are poor. This is not people making the right decisions. This is concentration of money because of economy volatility.
      - DSingularity 6y ago
        What do you consider fundamental value? Seems to me that people are willing to pay 50,000$ a BTC and companies are willing to hoard it. How is that not evidence that it has value?
        dodobirdlord 6y ago
        Productive capital. Financial speculation is fun and all but it has to remain a sideshow to the real economy, since we fundamentally rely on individuals and companies investing in the creation of more productive capital. If it ever came to pass that hodling Bitcoin was actually the best use of money because it somehow became a universal deflationary currency, then the government would have to step in and deploy its monopoly on violence to abolish Bitcoin to protect the broader economy. Speculative hoarding of deflationary gold caused the great depression and the governments of the world at the time couldn't escape the trap due to gold-backed currencies. These days we have a better understanding of the relationship between inflation/deflation, currencies, investments, and productive capital, and something like the great depression is not going to be allowed to happen again. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_(economics) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_(economics)
kungito 6y ago
There is also my generation where we have only recently started earning money and thinking about these things, desperately leveraging FOMO and all the other factors, trying to enter the market a bit too late but still before the next crash, wondering whether we are already too late. You could say crypto is similar to GME, but with GME anyone knowledgeable could see that it's a pump and dump because the 300$ only made sense for a very short period of time because of the shorts, while the crypto future is unclear but very promising in many regards
- ketamine__ 6y ago
  It's never late to enter the market. It seems like a lot of people aren't happy investing in tech companies and doubling their money over the next 5-10 years. They want to take big risks and double their money now! Being impatient will likely kill your returns in the long-term. The interviews with Charlie Munger videos on YT are really good if you're interested in a sensible approach to investing.

mrpopo 6y ago

Regardless of whether you agree with all the evil stuff, the fact is that Bitcoin is generating a lot of noise, speculation, and wasting a bunch of energy for practically nothing. I know practically no one around me who has ever used Bitcoin for actual purchases other than buying drugs once. And I know literally no one who uses it in daily life. However I have a few dozen friends who bought Bitcoin because it's going to go to the moon or something.

ur-whale 6y ago
> I know practically no one around me ... You need to travel and/or get out of your social bubble more. I've met folks who bought houses with Bitcoin and moved millions across "money transfer unfriendly" borders.
- mrpopo 6y ago
  I've met folks who bought houses with fiat too. Moving millions across "money transfer unfriendly" borders sounds like money laundering to me.
  - ketamine__ 6y ago
    Unless you live in Venezuela? But I would say it's true that many people in crypto do not want to pay taxes.
bhupy 6y ago
> ...for practically nothing > I know practically no one around me... I recommend reading a bit more about its use in countries with poor fiscal/monetary policy. https://qz.com/africa/1947769/nigeria-is-the-second-largest-bitcoin-market-after-the-us/ https://qz.com/africa/1947769/nigeria-is-the-second-largest-...

ur-whale 6y ago

Yeah, 100% with you here. I actually tremendously enjoy hearing a well constructed negative argument against Bitcoin/Crypto that presents a perspective I haven't heard a 100 times before and/or hasn't been debunked in depth. These are actually necessary given how new and different the whole shebang is. But that hasn't happened in a rather long time on HN, or if it has, it's buried 10 level of indent deep amongst HN randos parroting lame climate change arguments they've heard on reddit of FB.

1996 6y ago
> I actually tremendously enjoy hearing a well constructed negative argument against Bitcoin/Crypto that presents a perspective I haven't heard a 100 times before and/or hasn't been debunked in depth. Me too! /r/Buttcoin is a nice place for that, but you must already know (as your nick looks familiar to me) My personal favorite well constructed new negative argument: like India and Nigeria, governments will try to ban crypto since it endangers their total control. It will come as a coordinated attack by OECD countries, who will need to inflate big time after Covid: they will ban all transactions to fiat accounts, and all exchanges on their territory. Counter argument: politicians (and the 1%) need to protect against inflation/taxations, so they may not all be in favor, and will leak the plan. It will cause a huge Streisand effect, as "there is no such thing as negative publicity": random Joes will buy crypto, making the plan politically undefensible.
- audunw 6y ago
  > Counter argument: politicians (and the 1%) need to protect against inflation/taxations, so they may not all be in favor, and will leak the plan. It will cause a huge Streisand effect, as "there is no such thing as negative publicity": random Joes will buy crypto, making the plan politically undefensible. Uh, what? This makes zero sense. There is absolutely such a thing as negative publicity, especially if major governments threaten to effectively wipe out the value of Bitcoin. You could just as easily see a large fraction of the holders of Bitcoin try to cash out, to put into more safe investments while the situation stabilizes. This will probably create a crash, as Bitcoin is so prone to. More people will cash out. This will probably increase support for regulating or banning crypto exchanges. Some will already have cashed out, they're happy. Some of the ones that haven't will direct their anger against Bitcoin and support regulations. Some of the ones still holding will try to fight it, but they'll be in the minority. Most people who never invested will probably support bans ("I don't want to risk unwittingly getting hit by a crash like that in the future"). You'll probably have lots of emotional stories about grandpa losing all his savings in the media. I mean, we've seen this story over and over before in the stock markets. Someone figures out "get-rich-quick" schemes, they crash, people demand regulation. What makes anyone think that it'll be any different with cryptocurrencies once they become big enough? I think it'd be absolutely reasonable to require exchanges to guarantee that there's X% of reserves behind any cryptocurrency it trades. That'll probably kill Bitcoin, since you'd probably want to build such a requirement into the implementation of the currency. And it'll probably put a big damper on the growth of the conforming cryptocurrencies.

matwood 6y ago

Personally, I'm neutral to slightly bullish on crypto. It's reached mainstream and it looks like many companies are going to put a portion of their cash in BTC as an inflation hedge. The price will definitely fluctuate, but it does seem like a floor is being put in because of this move to the mainstream. So my advice on owing crypto, is own enough that if it goes parabolic you aren't kicking yourself later, but not so much that it breaks you if it goes to zero.

ur-whale 6y ago
Best advice in this entire thread: balanced, rational, apolitical. But unfortunately fails to take into account the anti-crypto fanaticism that seems to be a common ailment on HN. Put another away: some folks here would not be able to sleep at night if they followed your advice, because it'd be too much of a blow to either their moral system or to their ego because it'd be admitting they were wrong on 200 past HN posts.

NhanH 6y ago

I hold some amount of cryptocurrency. I am living in a country where some of the premise for cryptocurrency makes sense (strong capital control, banking and financial sector is ... questionable). And my intution likes the idea of cryptocurrency. But by far and large, there is no product-market fit still. And people are rational in being against it for various reason, please don't call them luddite. Personally, I'd still support crypto in the same way I'd support FSF (though much less of a support, just for clarification!). Because I think there is something there with the idea, and I like the principles. But there is a high chance the detractors are correct in their assessment.

Jochim 6y ago

That enough people have bought into the idea doesn't change the merits or issues that lead people to take their position on it in the first place. I didn't like the original iPod, I still don't, a lot of people did and do. I don't think either group is "wrong", just that we each value things differently. The same applies to Bitcoin. It doesn't offer me any tangible benefits over traditional currency and it has some major drawbacks in areas that I value. The only reason I would purchase is if I felt like gambling on speculation.

BLKNSLVR 6y ago

Whilst I think bitcoin will be around long term, it will be in somewhat of a precarious position once the proof of stake and high TPS blockchains start gathering steam. Sticking with PoW long term is my only concern about Bitcoins ability to remain relevant. I'm more bullish on Ethereum, pending successful transition to V2. Also bullish on some of the emerging competitors to Ethereum; heterogeneity provides a healthier ecosystem.

ur-whale 6y ago
>Sticking with PoW long term is my only concern about Bitcoins ability to remain relevant. I share your concerns, and if the whole segwit debacle is any indication, getting Bitcoin to switch away from PoW will be a political nightmare. The only thing that might get such a hard-fork deployed on Bitcoin is an extinction-level threat from a sizable competitor (e.g. ETH).

UncleMeat 6y ago

> while laughing all the way to the bank Cool. You got rich. Good for you. Why does that in any way make criticisms of environmental impact less legitimate? Loads of people have gotten rich off of systems that have unpriced negative externalities. You aren't the first. I hope that you use some of your newfound wealth to give to effective charities and help the world.

majani 6y ago

Yes. I have to confess, I have been patiently waiting since 2013 for the US government to effectively shut this shindig down in one way or another. After all this time, I have begun to reconsider my position. Tulip mania only lasted 2 years, and both the dotcom bubble and the US housing bubble only lasted 5 years. Honestly, there has to be some legs to this whole thing if it's managed to last 12 years. Might be a legitimate new store of value.

genericacct 6y ago

Did you say you laugh all the way to the _bank_? Isn't that where they store worthless fiat currency?