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Is it really that odd that "innovation" is slowing when the most lucrative professions for those with technical acumen do not further scientific knowledge, or t

by lumost 6y ago

Is it really that odd that "innovation" is slowing when the most lucrative professions for those with technical acumen do not further scientific knowledge, or technical capability? In the 1990s the thing to do was work at a consumer website, in the 2000s it was hedge funds and finance, in the teens it was large tech companies. While the technical skill required to work in any of these areas is considerable, many not involved in tech do not view the output as progress. This may be the greatest complement to those who work in Tech - or it could be a sign that the incentives for what is viewed as true innovation are misaligned. That being said, as of 2021 we have the following items that would only be dreams when I was a kid. - Private space companies planning mars missions within the decade. - Solar and wind are the cheapest sources of energy - Nearly everyone on the planet has a mobile computer connected to a broadband connection. - Consumer cars can almost drive themselves in specific conditions - The most desirable cars are electric and get 300 Miles per charge. - Almost anything that can be done, can be done over the internet. It's not quite the extreme shift from the 1940s to the 1960s, but progress is happening.

jrsj 6y ago
Even “advancements” these companies might produce now probably wouldn’t be particularly great considering that they’re borderline evil
- bcrosby95 6y ago
  Evil things have always been the primary driver of technology. A good thing is that many of these evil things aren't meant to kill people anymore.
  - RcouF1uZ4gsC 6y ago
    > Evil things have always been the primary driver of technology. A big example is the space program. It came out of the desire to develop rockets that could reliably deliver nuclear bombs to kill millions of people in a matter of minutes.
  - jrsj 6y ago
    Not really sure what good can come out of technology built for surveillance and manufacturing consent though.
    - ben_w 6y ago
      Usually the lack of imagination is in the opposite direction — “I can’t imagine what can go wrong if we keep a close eye on your health metrics to give advanced warning of heart attacks/summon ambulances when your elderly grandparents fall/tell you when your blood sugar is crashing, nor what could possibly be bad about using CCTV to deter crime, nor from having Google Street View in all the places I live or want to visit”, that sort of thing.
rmah 6y ago
In the 1990's the thing to do was work in management consulting or finance (in the USA at least). Eleven out of the dozen or so people I knew graduated MIT in 1989 and 1990 went to work for big name management consulting firms or wall street. The one who did not joined a video company that filmed promos for things that went boom (military hardware).
redis_mlc 6y ago
> That being said, as of 2021 we have the following items that would only be dreams when I was a kid. What you wrote is typical HN fanboi nonsense: > - Private space companies planning mars missions within the decade. Which is pointless. And will be stopped after the first fatal accident. > - Solar and wind are the cheapest sources of energy Well, sometimes, when it's available. Unlike base load, which is always. > - Nearly everyone on the planet has a mobile computer connected to a broadband connection. It's good from a consumer standpoint, not so much from a maker standpoint. > - Consumer cars can almost drive themselves in specific conditions No, they can't. And they won't until insurance companies sign on, which hasn't even started. > - The most desirable cars are electric and get 300 Miles per charge. At double (or more) the initial price of an ICE car. > - Almost anything that can be done, can be done over the internet. It's handy to get things done, at the price of relentless tracking. What I see continuing to deteriorate in 2021: - destruction of the nuclear family thanks to Tindr and other apps. This is the #1 threat of our times. - CCP undermining Western civilization through spying, bribing and misinformation. This is #2. - a leftist government in the US with nothing but intersectionalist policies (ie. navel gazing, fall of Rome, etc.) This is #3. It's entertaining that for every misdeed attributed to Trump during impeachments, there's endless video of the left previously doing the same thing or worse, yet they feel no accountability for their actions. What was Pelosi thinking when impeaching Trump for insurrection when she spent months supporting the burning of our downtowns (ie. actual insurrections)?
bobmaxup 6y ago
A lot can be done over the internet, but saying "almost anything that can be done" is reaching pretty far.
3gg 6y ago
- Nearly everyone on the planet has a mobile computer connected to a broadband connection. Are you sure about that? https://en.unesco.org/news/new-report-global-broadband-access-underscores-urgent-need-reach-half-world-still-unconnected https://en.unesco.org/news/new-report-global-broadband-acces...
ffggvv 6y ago
>> Solar and wind are the cheapest sources of energy source? sounds laughable to me
- Elof 6y ago
  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-19/wind-solar-are-cheapest-power-source-in-most-places-bnef-says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-19/wind-sola... The limiting factor is exiting infra. If you had the option between the two in a greenfield project solar/wind would win hands down
  - LunaSea 6y ago
    Including batteries and taking into account aging?
gumby 6y ago
> Is it really that odd that "innovation" is slowing when the most lucrative professions for those with technical acumen do not further scientific knowledge, or technical capability? I think the hubris that "innovation" requires technology is, while common, unwarranted. Although Christiansen use technological examples in his book, his thesis works without it. Thomas Cook produced a major, world-changing innovation with no technology of his own. Sears was an innovation. MacDonalds was an innovation. The key idea of YouTube (aggregate by content type rather than topic) was not innovative (and wasn't even Youtube's idea); likewise Amazon's original idea did not involve developing technology (use pre existing technology to jump on a curve early, which is not having to manage retail inventory in small amounts). Personally I have a technocentric approach and am uninterested in companies or models that don't involve developing new technology but I recognize that technology is rarely innovative in and of itself.
- judge2020 6y ago
  I agree with your last point the most - while most things are not innovative on their own, sometimes the implementation in itself is innovative. For example, YouTube might not be innovative for simply allowing only video uploads, but is is arguably an innovation in that it can handle 500 hours of video uploaded every minute[0] and does so profitably (well, maybe [1]). Amazon also definitely didn’t innovate on any concept with Amazon.com, but they did build AWS which started with the on-demand hardware/software space and opened the doors to thousands of startups that might actually be using AWS to push innovative products. 0: https://blog.youtube/press/ https://blog.youtube/press/ 1: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/google-still-isnt-telling-us-about-youtube-and-cloud-profits.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/google-still-isnt-telling-us...
  - gumby 6y ago
    I attempted to be clear ("amazon's original idea") that the original innovation was not a technical innovation -- not only AWS but various warehouse, fulfillment and other developments have been technology-based. I also agree that subsequent development at Youtube has been technological. My point is that technology is neither sufficient nor even necessary for innovation and to assume so is to wear blinders. Sorry my brevity resulted in a lack of clarity. And we even have a term for pre-baconian work: "pure science" which is the stuff frequently and foolishly pointed at by the usual gradgrinds as being a waste of money.
jimmaswell 6y ago
I don't understand why you said "the most lucrative professions for those with technical acumen do not further scientific knowledge, or technical capability" and then disproved it with so many examples at the end, do you see those as exceptions or not good enough?

by lumost 6y ago

jrsj 6y ago

Even “advancements” these companies might produce now probably wouldn’t be particularly great considering that they’re borderline evil

bcrosby95 6y ago
Evil things have always been the primary driver of technology. A good thing is that many of these evil things aren't meant to kill people anymore.
- RcouF1uZ4gsC 6y ago
  > Evil things have always been the primary driver of technology. A big example is the space program. It came out of the desire to develop rockets that could reliably deliver nuclear bombs to kill millions of people in a matter of minutes.
- jrsj 6y ago
  Not really sure what good can come out of technology built for surveillance and manufacturing consent though.
  - ben_w 6y ago
    Usually the lack of imagination is in the opposite direction — “I can’t imagine what can go wrong if we keep a close eye on your health metrics to give advanced warning of heart attacks/summon ambulances when your elderly grandparents fall/tell you when your blood sugar is crashing, nor what could possibly be bad about using CCTV to deter crime, nor from having Google Street View in all the places I live or want to visit”, that sort of thing.

rmah 6y ago

In the 1990's the thing to do was work in management consulting or finance (in the USA at least). Eleven out of the dozen or so people I knew graduated MIT in 1989 and 1990 went to work for big name management consulting firms or wall street. The one who did not joined a video company that filmed promos for things that went boom (military hardware).

redis_mlc 6y ago

> That being said, as of 2021 we have the following items that would only be dreams when I was a kid. What you wrote is typical HN fanboi nonsense: > - Private space companies planning mars missions within the decade. Which is pointless. And will be stopped after the first fatal accident. > - Solar and wind are the cheapest sources of energy Well, sometimes, when it's available. Unlike base load, which is always. > - Nearly everyone on the planet has a mobile computer connected to a broadband connection. It's good from a consumer standpoint, not so much from a maker standpoint. > - Consumer cars can almost drive themselves in specific conditions No, they can't. And they won't until insurance companies sign on, which hasn't even started. > - The most desirable cars are electric and get 300 Miles per charge. At double (or more) the initial price of an ICE car. > - Almost anything that can be done, can be done over the internet. It's handy to get things done, at the price of relentless tracking. What I see continuing to deteriorate in 2021: - destruction of the nuclear family thanks to Tindr and other apps. This is the #1 threat of our times. - CCP undermining Western civilization through spying, bribing and misinformation. This is #2. - a leftist government in the US with nothing but intersectionalist policies (ie. navel gazing, fall of Rome, etc.) This is #3. It's entertaining that for every misdeed attributed to Trump during impeachments, there's endless video of the left previously doing the same thing or worse, yet they feel no accountability for their actions. What was Pelosi thinking when impeaching Trump for insurrection when she spent months supporting the burning of our downtowns (ie. actual insurrections)?

bobmaxup 6y ago

A lot can be done over the internet, but saying "almost anything that can be done" is reaching pretty far.

3gg 6y ago

- Nearly everyone on the planet has a mobile computer connected to a broadband connection. Are you sure about that? https://en.unesco.org/news/new-report-global-broadband-access-underscores-urgent-need-reach-half-world-still-unconnected https://en.unesco.org/news/new-report-global-broadband-acces...

ffggvv 6y ago

>> Solar and wind are the cheapest sources of energy source? sounds laughable to me

Elof 6y ago
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-19/wind-solar-are-cheapest-power-source-in-most-places-bnef-says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-19/wind-sola... The limiting factor is exiting infra. If you had the option between the two in a greenfield project solar/wind would win hands down
- LunaSea 6y ago
  Including batteries and taking into account aging?

gumby 6y ago

> Is it really that odd that "innovation" is slowing when the most lucrative professions for those with technical acumen do not further scientific knowledge, or technical capability? I think the hubris that "innovation" requires technology is, while common, unwarranted. Although Christiansen use technological examples in his book, his thesis works without it. Thomas Cook produced a major, world-changing innovation with no technology of his own. Sears was an innovation. MacDonalds was an innovation. The key idea of YouTube (aggregate by content type rather than topic) was not innovative (and wasn't even Youtube's idea); likewise Amazon's original idea did not involve developing technology (use pre existing technology to jump on a curve early, which is not having to manage retail inventory in small amounts). Personally I have a technocentric approach and am uninterested in companies or models that don't involve developing new technology but I recognize that technology is rarely innovative in and of itself.

judge2020 6y ago
I agree with your last point the most - while most things are not innovative on their own, sometimes the implementation in itself is innovative. For example, YouTube might not be innovative for simply allowing only video uploads, but is is arguably an innovation in that it can handle 500 hours of video uploaded every minute[0] and does so profitably (well, maybe [1]). Amazon also definitely didn’t innovate on any concept with Amazon.com, but they did build AWS which started with the on-demand hardware/software space and opened the doors to thousands of startups that might actually be using AWS to push innovative products. 0: https://blog.youtube/press/ https://blog.youtube/press/ 1: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/google-still-isnt-telling-us-about-youtube-and-cloud-profits.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/google-still-isnt-telling-us...
- gumby 6y ago
  I attempted to be clear ("amazon's original idea") that the original innovation was not a technical innovation -- not only AWS but various warehouse, fulfillment and other developments have been technology-based. I also agree that subsequent development at Youtube has been technological. My point is that technology is neither sufficient nor even necessary for innovation and to assume so is to wear blinders. Sorry my brevity resulted in a lack of clarity. And we even have a term for pre-baconian work: "pure science" which is the stuff frequently and foolishly pointed at by the usual gradgrinds as being a waste of money.

jimmaswell 6y ago

I don't understand why you said "the most lucrative professions for those with technical acumen do not further scientific knowledge, or technical capability" and then disproved it with so many examples at the end, do you see those as exceptions or not good enough?