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I remember watching the vote on HN, and a woman vox polled at the tube sation said she voted leave, but didn't think it'd get up. Brexit has consumed the UK fo

I remember watching the vote on HN, and a woman vox polled at the tube sation said she voted leave, but didn't think it'd get up. Brexit has consumed the UK for the last 5 years with it's totally inwards looking activity. COVID was a black swan event that will be bad for this generations outcomes. Brexit was totally avoidable but will have much the same lingering suppression of economic activity.

dariusj18 6y ago
I still can't believe they started Brexit because of a non-binding referendum that only got 52% of the vote. You'd think to start something so massive in scope they would at least want a super-majority buy in.
ben_w 6y ago
From what I’ve read [0], the economic effects of the pandemic will mostly be gone in a few years, but the economic effects of Brexit will last for multiple decades. [0] newspaper articles, so the Michael Crichton [1] amnesia effect applies [1] Michael Crichton came up with it and called it the “Gell-Mann Amnesia effect” because “by dropping a famous name I imply greater importance to myself, and to the effect, than it would otherwise have”.
- spindle 6y ago
  That always makes me laugh. The full thing: http://xeny.net/The%20Gell-Mann%20Amnesia%20Effect http://xeny.net/The%20Gell-Mann%20Amnesia%20Effect
- lm28469 6y ago
  > the economic effects of the pandemic will mostly be gone in a few years I'm not an expert but afaik we're still in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis during which virtually every country in the west contracted insane amount of debt to save their economies, and this is exactly what we're doing again right now. I have my doubt any of this will be "mostly gone" in a few years, more like we're going to pay for it over the next X generations https://theconversation.com/the-uk-governments-covid-spending-may-lead-to-inflation-150405 https://theconversation.com/the-uk-governments-covid-spendin... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/uk-government-debt-borrwing-coronavirus-lockdown-b1777589.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/uk-government-de... https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-warns-countries-to-watch-debt-while-fighting-coronavirus/ https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-warns-countries-to-watch-... https://globalnews.ca/news/7318316/us-debt-coronavirus-exceed-economy/ https://globalnews.ca/news/7318316/us-debt-coronavirus-excee... https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fiscal-cbo-idUSKCN26D0CW https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fiscal-cbo-idUSKCN26D0CW https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-economy-was-laden-with-debt-before-covid-thats-bad-news-for-a-recovery-11601566931 https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-economy-was-laden-with-... https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/06/business/us-debt-deficit-coronavirus/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/06/business/us-debt-deficit-...
  - sandworm101 6y ago
    >> more like we're going to pay for it over the next X generations I think we need to move away from that construct. If we today are burdening future generations, the proper description is that they will pay, not us. The people saddled with these debts are not alive today. They did not ask for this. They did not consent to owe anything. It is little wonder that revolutions are generally run by young people. It would be very interesting to see how many of these multi-generational debt structures result in profound instability, but sadly nobody alive today will be around to see these decisions. In short: imho no country should take on debts that have no hope of repayment within a single lifetime. Germany paid the last of its WWI reparations in 2010... roughly a century after the war. Even that was within a theoretical single lifetime.
    - imtringued 6y ago
      I agree. Youth unemployment is a big problem. If you create debt and use that debt to drive down youth unemployment then the concept of "pay for it over the next X generations" doesn't even make any sense because when you are creating the debt you are also automatically writing a paycheck that clears that debt. It's effectively neutral on the economy. If you have an economy with zero slack (meaning 0% unemployment) then adding more debt does increase the amount of work that has to be done in the future. In practice this means that the least profitable work will not get done and a backlog of work starts piling up. This is not a problem in practice because of technological progress and the subsequent rise in productivity. Debt does become harmful if it is spent wastefully. Financing consumer spending is a pretty good example. Since you do not expect to net a greater return in the future the debt is just an additional fee that provides no meaningful value compared to having the money in your bank account before spending it. Getting a mortgage to buy an existing house can also be wasteful if there is a housing shortage (=more residents than housing). You're supposed to spend that money on building a new house or condo. The large difference between market rate housing and construction cost is not a flaw. It's a financial incentive for construction companies to build more housing. You just have to let them build. Using debt to finance a war is also extremely wasteful. If you lose the war your economy will no longer be able to support the debt.
    - 6y ago
ahmedalsudani 6y ago
COVID will come and go... Hopeful nothing similar happens within our lifetimes. BREXIT will unfortunately have an impact for much longer. The UK was a place I dreamed about living in. English-speaking, great quality of life, weather is pretty mild compared to where I currently am, and, most importantly, open borders with the EU. Now the UK does not even register as an option. This is just me, but I’m sure there are others in the same boat, and as a young Brit you just had a door shut in your face. Not to mention the impact on business that’s going to affect British workers within the UK. It seems unlikely that we’re going to see a larger case of shooting oneself in the foot anytime soon.
- spurgu 6y ago
  That's what they wanted, to keep pesky immigrants like you away. /s
  - CydeWeys 6y ago
    I don't think this merits the /s. Keeping immigrants out literally was a rationale for many Brexit voters, like it was in our 2016 US elections.
    - seaman1921 6y ago
      Exactly, such kind of thinking is unfortunately very much prevalent outside the big cities, even in developed nations like US and UK. I guess it is because the folks outside big cities never had a chance to interact with the immigrants and see the value they add to the society, rather than seeing them as a threat. It is quite sad :(
      - corty 6y ago
        I'm not so sure about that. E.g. there aren't any German truck drivers and trucks anymore, just companies and drivers from eastern europe, because it's cheaper. Similarly for lots of jobs in agriculture, construction and some industries like food processing. That's surprisingly not a problem because of unemployment in Germany as much as it is a social and legal problem: Eastern European workers abroad are underpaid (minimum wage circumvented), uninsured (social security dues circumvented), without appropriate workplace protections (truck drivers doing overtime, illegally having to sleep in their trucks for weeks on end, lax technical safety of the trucks), and draining the economy of their home countries of workers because factories that could have been nearby are in Germany instead. This begs the question: Would it have been as bad as Brexit to restrict worker movements a little more? I would suggest that such restrictions could have even had an overall benefit if done properly. It's just that Germany desperately wanted those cheap workers.
that_guy_iain 6y ago
Honestly, I thought Brexit was going to ruin the UK before COVID. But the effects of COVID and the expected effects to come when furlough ends I think the UK is going to be in complete ruins for years. I keep reading that they expect 1/3 of people to lose their jobs when furlough ends. The goverment is now suggesting companies move warehouse (and jobs) to the EU. The increase in the costs of importing into the UK will raise prices with people who are going to have less money. Orders coming from the EU will drop massively even for those with EU warehouses because, how do I know if they have one? I've literally made sure to avoid any UK business because I know I'll have to pay extra taxes when it arrives. And I know people who voted leave who instantly regretted it and only voted leave as a protest vote. "We wanted to give them a scare" was how it was explained to me. So basically. While some pople are still 100% for a hard brexit, I don't think the majority of the nation even wanted to leave the EU 3 years after the vote. And when it cames to the general elections, no major party went with the anti Brexit campaign which seemed nuts. The politcal elite wanted Brexit and the poor will pay the most.
- krona 6y ago
  I don't think the majority of the nation even wanted to leave the EU 3 years after the vote. The UK has had two general elections since the 2016 vote. If the electorate thought it was the single most important issue and that we should remain, the UK wouldn't have left.
  - neilsense 6y ago
    The opposing party said nothing about remaining if they were going to be voted in. One of the key issues was never discussed by Corbyn.
  - CydeWeys 6y ago
    Was gonna say the same. As an outsider looking in, I too was rationalizing it as a fluke vote. But nope, the nation doubled down on the pro-Brexit Tories in subsequent elections, thus confirming the desire to really go through with it all. It's all so sad.
ooOOoo 6y ago
The pandemic is not a black swan! There have been many pandemics in the history of mankind, so the pandemic was predictable. Nicholas Taleb himself is “irritated” whenever the coronavirus pandemic is referred to as a "black swan" (https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-is...).

dariusj18 6y ago

I still can't believe they started Brexit because of a non-binding referendum that only got 52% of the vote. You'd think to start something so massive in scope they would at least want a super-majority buy in.

ben_w 6y ago

From what I’ve read [0], the economic effects of the pandemic will mostly be gone in a few years, but the economic effects of Brexit will last for multiple decades. [0] newspaper articles, so the Michael Crichton [1] amnesia effect applies [1] Michael Crichton came up with it and called it the “Gell-Mann Amnesia effect” because “by dropping a famous name I imply greater importance to myself, and to the effect, than it would otherwise have”.

spindle 6y ago
That always makes me laugh. The full thing: http://xeny.net/The%20Gell-Mann%20Amnesia%20Effect http://xeny.net/The%20Gell-Mann%20Amnesia%20Effect
lm28469 6y ago
> the economic effects of the pandemic will mostly be gone in a few years I'm not an expert but afaik we're still in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis during which virtually every country in the west contracted insane amount of debt to save their economies, and this is exactly what we're doing again right now. I have my doubt any of this will be "mostly gone" in a few years, more like we're going to pay for it over the next X generations https://theconversation.com/the-uk-governments-covid-spending-may-lead-to-inflation-150405 https://theconversation.com/the-uk-governments-covid-spendin... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/uk-government-debt-borrwing-coronavirus-lockdown-b1777589.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/uk-government-de... https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-warns-countries-to-watch-debt-while-fighting-coronavirus/ https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-warns-countries-to-watch-... https://globalnews.ca/news/7318316/us-debt-coronavirus-exceed-economy/ https://globalnews.ca/news/7318316/us-debt-coronavirus-excee... https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fiscal-cbo-idUSKCN26D0CW https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fiscal-cbo-idUSKCN26D0CW https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-economy-was-laden-with-debt-before-covid-thats-bad-news-for-a-recovery-11601566931 https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-economy-was-laden-with-... https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/06/business/us-debt-deficit-coronavirus/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/06/business/us-debt-deficit-...
- sandworm101 6y ago
  >> more like we're going to pay for it over the next X generations I think we need to move away from that construct. If we today are burdening future generations, the proper description is that they will pay, not us. The people saddled with these debts are not alive today. They did not ask for this. They did not consent to owe anything. It is little wonder that revolutions are generally run by young people. It would be very interesting to see how many of these multi-generational debt structures result in profound instability, but sadly nobody alive today will be around to see these decisions. In short: imho no country should take on debts that have no hope of repayment within a single lifetime. Germany paid the last of its WWI reparations in 2010... roughly a century after the war. Even that was within a theoretical single lifetime.
  - imtringued 6y ago
    I agree. Youth unemployment is a big problem. If you create debt and use that debt to drive down youth unemployment then the concept of "pay for it over the next X generations" doesn't even make any sense because when you are creating the debt you are also automatically writing a paycheck that clears that debt. It's effectively neutral on the economy. If you have an economy with zero slack (meaning 0% unemployment) then adding more debt does increase the amount of work that has to be done in the future. In practice this means that the least profitable work will not get done and a backlog of work starts piling up. This is not a problem in practice because of technological progress and the subsequent rise in productivity. Debt does become harmful if it is spent wastefully. Financing consumer spending is a pretty good example. Since you do not expect to net a greater return in the future the debt is just an additional fee that provides no meaningful value compared to having the money in your bank account before spending it. Getting a mortgage to buy an existing house can also be wasteful if there is a housing shortage (=more residents than housing). You're supposed to spend that money on building a new house or condo. The large difference between market rate housing and construction cost is not a flaw. It's a financial incentive for construction companies to build more housing. You just have to let them build. Using debt to finance a war is also extremely wasteful. If you lose the war your economy will no longer be able to support the debt.
  - 6y ago

ahmedalsudani 6y ago

COVID will come and go... Hopeful nothing similar happens within our lifetimes. BREXIT will unfortunately have an impact for much longer. The UK was a place I dreamed about living in. English-speaking, great quality of life, weather is pretty mild compared to where I currently am, and, most importantly, open borders with the EU. Now the UK does not even register as an option. This is just me, but I’m sure there are others in the same boat, and as a young Brit you just had a door shut in your face. Not to mention the impact on business that’s going to affect British workers within the UK. It seems unlikely that we’re going to see a larger case of shooting oneself in the foot anytime soon.

spurgu 6y ago
That's what they wanted, to keep pesky immigrants like you away. /s
- CydeWeys 6y ago
  I don't think this merits the /s. Keeping immigrants out literally was a rationale for many Brexit voters, like it was in our 2016 US elections.
  - seaman1921 6y ago
    Exactly, such kind of thinking is unfortunately very much prevalent outside the big cities, even in developed nations like US and UK. I guess it is because the folks outside big cities never had a chance to interact with the immigrants and see the value they add to the society, rather than seeing them as a threat. It is quite sad :(
    - corty 6y ago
      I'm not so sure about that. E.g. there aren't any German truck drivers and trucks anymore, just companies and drivers from eastern europe, because it's cheaper. Similarly for lots of jobs in agriculture, construction and some industries like food processing. That's surprisingly not a problem because of unemployment in Germany as much as it is a social and legal problem: Eastern European workers abroad are underpaid (minimum wage circumvented), uninsured (social security dues circumvented), without appropriate workplace protections (truck drivers doing overtime, illegally having to sleep in their trucks for weeks on end, lax technical safety of the trucks), and draining the economy of their home countries of workers because factories that could have been nearby are in Germany instead. This begs the question: Would it have been as bad as Brexit to restrict worker movements a little more? I would suggest that such restrictions could have even had an overall benefit if done properly. It's just that Germany desperately wanted those cheap workers.

that_guy_iain 6y ago

Honestly, I thought Brexit was going to ruin the UK before COVID. But the effects of COVID and the expected effects to come when furlough ends I think the UK is going to be in complete ruins for years. I keep reading that they expect 1/3 of people to lose their jobs when furlough ends. The goverment is now suggesting companies move warehouse (and jobs) to the EU. The increase in the costs of importing into the UK will raise prices with people who are going to have less money. Orders coming from the EU will drop massively even for those with EU warehouses because, how do I know if they have one? I've literally made sure to avoid any UK business because I know I'll have to pay extra taxes when it arrives. And I know people who voted leave who instantly regretted it and only voted leave as a protest vote. "We wanted to give them a scare" was how it was explained to me. So basically. While some pople are still 100% for a hard brexit, I don't think the majority of the nation even wanted to leave the EU 3 years after the vote. And when it cames to the general elections, no major party went with the anti Brexit campaign which seemed nuts. The politcal elite wanted Brexit and the poor will pay the most.

krona 6y ago
I don't think the majority of the nation even wanted to leave the EU 3 years after the vote. The UK has had two general elections since the 2016 vote. If the electorate thought it was the single most important issue and that we should remain, the UK wouldn't have left.
- neilsense 6y ago
  The opposing party said nothing about remaining if they were going to be voted in. One of the key issues was never discussed by Corbyn.
- CydeWeys 6y ago
  Was gonna say the same. As an outsider looking in, I too was rationalizing it as a fluke vote. But nope, the nation doubled down on the pro-Brexit Tories in subsequent elections, thus confirming the desire to really go through with it all. It's all so sad.

ooOOoo 6y ago

The pandemic is not a black swan! There have been many pandemics in the history of mankind, so the pandemic was predictable. Nicholas Taleb himself is “irritated” whenever the coronavirus pandemic is referred to as a "black swan" (https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-is...).