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UK exports to EU slashed by 68% since Brexit

86 points by belltaco 6y ago

belltaco 6y ago
Interesting tweet about how much blame EU deserves for this. https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1358036501729337347?s=19 https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1358036501729337347...
- pjmlp 6y ago
  Yep, what a surprise! /s
- capableweb 6y ago
  Not sure if you linked the right tweet or I'm missing something. This is what I see: > There is a notion that the EU is punishing us. That our exports have to jump through more hoops than e.g. Norwegian products. > This is what we agreed to. What we wanted. We didn't opt for the Norway model (e.g. alignment). > This is not punishment, this was our choice. That to me seems to say that this is self-inflicted, not something that the EU as a group inflicted on the UK. Not to dismiss the idea that UK is leaving the EU, not that the EU is kicking out UK. So I guess when it comes to "how much blame the EU deserves for this", it seems the answer is "none".
  - dariusj18 6y ago
    Also, the EU has no motivation to make Brexit look like a success.
  - gspr 6y ago
    > So I guess when it comes to "how much blame the EU deserves for this", it seems the answer is "none". I think that was the point the parent post was trying to make.
    - flembat 6y ago
      The UKs friends in Europe have decided to treat the UK more like an adversary than a typical third party. So certainly the EU is also to blame.
      - Hamuko 6y ago
        Which typical parties are you referring to now?
      - kergonath 6y ago
        The EU's friends in the UK have decided to be treated more like a third country than a typical partner. Surely they are responsible for their actions?
  - cmmeur01 6y ago
    We want to be treated as club member and reap all the perks, but we don't want to be in the club though.
    - lou1306 6y ago
      And the irony is, you actually were reaping a lot of the perks while not being "in the club" under many, many respects (the €, first of all). Just a sad, sad turn of events all around.
      - that_guy_iain 6y ago
        The UK had literally the best deal in Europe. They had a rebate, they weren't a member of the schengen area, they refused the Euro, etc. They then went and got more concessions and then decided to leave. And now the hardcore Brexit people think all the negative effects they were warned about for 5+ years is the EU punishing them.
        imtringued 6y ago
        From a pragmatic standpoint the Euro is a complete failure. I don't blame any country that decided against adopting it. However, the rest is relatively solid. There are warts and inefficiencies like in every governing body but it's does its job as an economic union.
        jokethrowaway 6y ago
        I disagree, every added governing body is a failure in itself. I would prefer to just see a Europe-light with countries maintaining their currency and laws and just dropping trade restrictions, import taxes and need for touristic visas. I'd even extend it to any country in the world, let the customer decide if the want to buy from China or from the UK
        lou1306 6y ago
        But "dropping trade restrictions, import taxes and need for touristic visas" automatically leads to production shifting towards the countries with the loosest regulation and the lowest wages. So, you need at least a supranational regulation body that tries to make regulations uniform across the zone. But then, you need a supranational body of elected officials to jointly control that regulation body, by passing legislation. But then, you need an executive body that sets the agenda of the legislative body. And some judiciary mechanisms to handle transgressions to the laws and regulations coming from all these organs. And then... you basically end up with something pretty similar to the EU as we know it. (I'm not saying the EU is perfect, mind you. Just that they didn't create such a complex collection of institutions just "for the lulz")
  - kergonath 6y ago
    Everything was predicted a long time ago. All the friction at the border is the inevitable consequence of the choices the successive British governments made. I like to show this as a demonstration: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agZ0xISi40E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agZ0xISi40E .
- thinkingemote 6y ago
  There is also a theory that the delays and controversy of Brexit have been caused by the remainers who want to reverse the referendum, in other words some people out there blame the trouble caused on those who didn't want there to be trouble in the first place.
  - kergonath 6y ago
    At which point in the process were they in any position to do anything, though?
- yread 6y ago
  Of course it's largely UK's own making. But EU surely didn't make it any easier. The VAT rules alone make it really difficult for small business to export to EU. Each country has its own rules, thresholds and agencies. Compared to how easy is it for us in the EU to do business within EU it's crazy. That's why UK's own government recommends opening a subsidiary in the EU.
  - lottin 6y ago
    Exporters don't pay VAT, importers do.
    - yread 6y ago
      I admit I only looked into very quickly but it seems that UK business might need fiscal representatives in each EU country they do business with https://www.avalara.com/vatlive/en/vat-services/fiscal-representative-for-eu-vat.html https://www.avalara.com/vatlive/en/vat-services/fiscal-repre...
  - krona 6y ago
    I was under the impression that most of the rule changes apply to the vast majority of cross-border B2C sellers in the EU from July: https://www.pwc.ch/en/insights/tax/new-ecommerce-eu-vat-rules-july-2021.html https://www.pwc.ch/en/insights/tax/new-ecommerce-eu-vat-rule...
  - corty 6y ago
    The EU cannot make it any easier. Not because it wouldn't be possible at all, just that it would be suicidal for the EU or its politicians for several reasons. There are tendencies in several members to leave the EU or at least get rid of a few of the treaties. That means that leaving the EU in any really beneficial way for the UK would be strengthening the "leave" position in other members. And while the UK alone leaving is bad, more members leaving would be far worse. Then there is the topic of the UK rebate and the UK's special role in several treaties. The EU has always had to pamper the UK and the UK gave nothing but grief in return. It would have been political suicide for the EU leadership to give any impression of continuing to pamper the Brits in the Brexit treaties. Also, beneficial status for a non-member would weaken the EU position in treaties with other non-members such as Norway, Switzerland, Japan, Canada, etc. And then there is the problem of the UK being not really one country but a haphazard agglomeration of several territories. While Great Britain is somewhat uniform, Northern Ireland is special. There are several reasons for treating it in a special way in the Brexit treaty, like a looming civil war, a possible Irish veto, a possible smuggling route into the EU market. But it was clear from the start that this would hugely complicate matters. Same for Gibraltar and the channel Islands, French and Spanish vetoes looming, etc. I won't be surprised if the Brexit treaties don't hold forever. If the UK feels the squeeze of non-forthcoming trade with the rest of the world and diminishing trade with the EU, a more aligned status like the Norway/Switzerland model is possible. And I guess there will be a realignment of Northern Ireland and Gibraltar in some way, either towards a more unified UK or towards a weakened UK and Spanish/Irish unity, depending on what kind of hit the respective nations will take during COVID and the next few years. But from an internal EU point of view, the current Brexit treaty is the farthest the EU could have gone.
- baq 6y ago
  Of course. Nobody says it aloud but there were multiple members with anti-EU, pro-exit governments before brexit. Not anymore precisely because UK didn’t get any favors to put it mildly.
gonzo41 6y ago
I remember watching the vote on HN, and a woman vox polled at the tube sation said she voted leave, but didn't think it'd get up. Brexit has consumed the UK for the last 5 years with it's totally inwards looking activity. COVID was a black swan event that will be bad for this generations outcomes. Brexit was totally avoidable but will have much the same lingering suppression of economic activity.
- dariusj18 6y ago
  I still can't believe they started Brexit because of a non-binding referendum that only got 52% of the vote. You'd think to start something so massive in scope they would at least want a super-majority buy in.
- ben_w 6y ago
  From what I’ve read [0], the economic effects of the pandemic will mostly be gone in a few years, but the economic effects of Brexit will last for multiple decades. [0] newspaper articles, so the Michael Crichton [1] amnesia effect applies [1] Michael Crichton came up with it and called it the “Gell-Mann Amnesia effect” because “by dropping a famous name I imply greater importance to myself, and to the effect, than it would otherwise have”.
  - spindle 6y ago
    That always makes me laugh. The full thing: http://xeny.net/The%20Gell-Mann%20Amnesia%20Effect http://xeny.net/The%20Gell-Mann%20Amnesia%20Effect
  - lm28469 6y ago
    > the economic effects of the pandemic will mostly be gone in a few years I'm not an expert but afaik we're still in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis during which virtually every country in the west contracted insane amount of debt to save their economies, and this is exactly what we're doing again right now. I have my doubt any of this will be "mostly gone" in a few years, more like we're going to pay for it over the next X generations https://theconversation.com/the-uk-governments-covid-spending-may-lead-to-inflation-150405 https://theconversation.com/the-uk-governments-covid-spendin... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/uk-government-debt-borrwing-coronavirus-lockdown-b1777589.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/uk-government-de... https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-warns-countries-to-watch-debt-while-fighting-coronavirus/ https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-warns-countries-to-watch-... https://globalnews.ca/news/7318316/us-debt-coronavirus-exceed-economy/ https://globalnews.ca/news/7318316/us-debt-coronavirus-excee... https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fiscal-cbo-idUSKCN26D0CW https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fiscal-cbo-idUSKCN26D0CW https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-economy-was-laden-with-debt-before-covid-thats-bad-news-for-a-recovery-11601566931 https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-economy-was-laden-with-... https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/06/business/us-debt-deficit-coronavirus/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/06/business/us-debt-deficit-...
hackeraccount 6y ago
The implication here is that this is a win/loss type thing. UK loses and the EU wins. The reality is that both sides are losing.
- LatteLazy 6y ago
  Yes, but Britian is losing more so we win! - brexiteer position
  - danieldk 6y ago
    "They're now British fish and they're better and happier fish for it." - Jacob Rees-Mogg If one hadn't lived through the last decade or so, you'd be convinced that this was a Monty Python sketch or Onion article.
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  Sure, but that’s not a surprise to the EU. They warned they’d be the result from the start.
- danieldk 6y ago
  Sure, but it was the UK's choice to leave. Self-inflicted damage naturally receives more scorn than damage inflicted by another party.
- SideburnsOfDoom 6y ago
  > The reality is that both sides are losing. And also, the reality is that one side is losing more than the other side. And it's the smaller side that loses more.
- jokethrowaway 6y ago
  That's debatable. The UK success will be dependent on its capacity to attract capital (as it always was). Being English speaking is great to attract American capital. Being outside of European covid debt payments is another advantage. The freedom to compete on taxation with the world will be another one.
88 6y ago
There is also the minor issue of a global pandemic and the UK being in a national lockdown.
- ris 6y ago
  So, yes, this is a comparison againt January last year, pre-pandemic. I'm in no way a brexiteer, but I do wish people wouldn't do lead articles with such easily refutable arguments. But of course, this is the Guardian - they know their audience, they know who they're talking to and aren't too interested in persuading someone from outside their half of the bubbleverse.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - midasuni 6y ago
    If it was down to covid then imports would be equally affected. Import changes don’t come in for a few more month, and are at normalish levels.
- flohofwoe 6y ago
  This is addressed about halfway into the article. > Trade experts said part of the reason for the sharp fall in exports was the coincidence of Brexit and the pandemic. But several heads of trade bodies fear worse is to come. ...with more information to follow.
  - ris 6y ago
    I wouldn't exactly call that "addressing" it. It's vague hand-waving about some guesswork done by some un-named "trade experts". The later mentions are from Gove of all people. Any brexiteer reading this rather than being convinced will just dismiss it as project fear. But as I've said elsewhere, this isn't an article for brexiteers, it's a warm-bath article to reinforce their readership's beliefs.
- raesene9 6y ago
  There is indeed, which is why it was so surprising that the UK gov. turned down the offer to extend the transition period, which could have stopped these two economic events overlapping.
jedisct1 6y ago
Just went to Marks&Spencer in Paris today. The store was 90% empty. No more fresh products, and mostly just leftovers of other products since Brexit. Feels so weird.
- Hamuko 6y ago
  At the moment it's kinda hard to tell which part is Brexit and which part is COVID-19 (and especially the new variants).
  - rich_sasha 6y ago
    Except for the New Variant mishap, import/export was surprisingly smooth under pandemic Europe.
  - kergonath 6y ago
    Having gone shopping regularly there during December and January, the major change was when lorries stopped crossing the channel. That's when we started seing empty shelves. The pandemic by itself never managed that.
  - FartyMcFarter 6y ago
    Are you saying the same thing is happening at non-British chains, or is there some other reason?
tibbydudeza 6y ago
What a disaster.
LatteLazy 6y ago
"Fuck Business" - the official position of the man who went on to be elected PM on the basis he'd deliver a harder brexit than the other guy.
- joshuaissac 6y ago
  For context, this was what Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said when he was asked about business concerns over Brexit. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/06/23/eu-diplomats-shocked-boriss-four-letter-reply-business-concerns/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/06/23/eu-diplomats...
  - LatteLazy 6y ago
    Thanks, I should have provided some context.
nasmorn 6y ago
I always bought my kids bikes from a great little UK company, Isla Bikes. But now they can no longer give you a price, you need to get a quote. Some extra parts are out of stock and you would need to go through it again. I just went with a German company.
- Mediterraneo10 6y ago
  Yeah, late last year I was set to order from a famous UK maker of bespoke bicycles, but I had to cancel. Now the EU imposes duties based on the origin of all components that are sourced from outside the UK. Most high-quality steel bike frames are from Taiwan, the parts might be from Malaysia or the USA, etc. There is very little on a bicycle that was actually made in the UK, it was just assembled there. So, I too went with a German company.
- krona 6y ago
  https://twitter.com/Islabikes/status/1350049775329177600 https://twitter.com/Islabikes/status/1350049775329177600 Seems most of their bikes components aren't UK sourced (so there is a tariff), which isn't surprising let's be honest. That being said any bike I've bought in the UK in the past 20 years has also been subject to similar tariffs, owing to Japanese/Taiwanese components.
glintik 6y ago
Bad for business, bad for UK people, bad for EU people. UK authorities, are you still sane?
- baq 6y ago
  Good for UK elites, especially those like Farage with EU passports.
  - CydeWeys 6y ago
    I would argue that it isn't even good for most UK elites. Whatever benefits they're getting out of it are likely to be swamped by the overall downturn of the British economy in the future, an economy that they are presumably heavily invested in.
nickhalfasleep 6y ago
It's clear the winner here is not the citizens of Great Britain, but of those who use London as a secret store of their unusual wealth, which now escapes EU oversight.
teleforce 6y ago
It seems that those who are championing the freedom for humanity in EU and and USA cannot seems to champion for freedom of economy. How can you have freedom for humanity if they cannot openly trade with each others without unnecessary restrictions? It seems that what EU (federation of participating countries) and USA (federation of participating states) practices of major trade blocs are not unlike the old empires, but the age of empires namely Imperial China, Byzantine, Mughal and Ottoman probably fare much better with their openness to trades. The trade blocs as we know today was started by the Hanseatic League of the Holy Roman Empire that is neither Holy nor Roman nor an Empire [1]. [1]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_bloc https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_bloc
- corty 6y ago
  Back in the good old empire days, openness to trades meant letting tradespeople in at all. Others just forbade traders to cross the border, in a closed way like nowadays maybe North Korea. The "openness" consisted of accepting traders, but with tariffs and restrictions on tradeable goods as well as necessary bribes and taxes. Not to mention the nonexistence of any kind of protection along the routes, you just had protection within the walls of a city, and then only when paying the necessary taxes. If you wanted protection for the route, you had to hire your own soldiers. The granularity of it all varied, usually trade in Central Europe was regulated differently by each city, so you had to pay your dues when crossing the city gates. Others had larger territories, there you had to pay at the border crossings in addition to each city. Oh, and not trading in a city because of taxes? Big no-no, only cities had the right of market, meaning you got in big trouble for that. I would suggest even the most restrictive trade policy today is more free than in the empires you enumerated. There is only a difference in sophistication of the rules, because nowadays there are far more varied goods and that "unnecessary" stuff like consumer protection.
  - teleforce 6y ago
    Your views are very simplistic with regard to how the empires operates. I think that your views are mainly from the European perspectives when at the times they have what you called "dark ages" where the quality of life during the time span period is worst than the time before and after that. For the rest of the world's empires the arrangement are more sophisticated than that namely Imperial China, Byzantine, Mughal and Ottoman. Most of these empires works like the current trade blocs, and the members of the empires pay taxes to their master [1][2]. Those smaller autonomous states or countries who are not directly under the empires most of the times pay tributary "protection taxes" or Arabic "jizya" where they becomes vassal countries/states of the bigger empires [3]. One of common examples are the Dubrovnik in Croatia which was under Ottoman protection for about 500 years! [4]. At its peak it rivals The City of Venice and this is only one famous examples of a major city not directly under a particular empire but flourished under the protection. I can provide more examples but I hope you get the points. This arrangement is something like countries not belongs USA but in which under NAFTA trade blocs. This thriving ancient port cities can be like Taiwan today and Taiwan is probably probably moving towards this exact direction [5]. Interestingly since Holy Roman Empire (HRE) is not technically an empire, Hanseatic League of HRE based countries initiated the trade blocs among themselves to emulate a trading under one unified empire. As I mentioned previously this is the basis of our current trade blocs. You also claimed the non-existence of any kind of protection along the trade routes. This is not particularly true since the Imperial China has extensive guard posts along the the Silk Routes and the distance between them is reportedly one "marhalah" or around 45 km meaning that a horse can run without stopping between these two guard posts. If you like this is the earlier version of the Pony Express since they also used the posts as messengers to deliver the important news (e.g. emperor has died) to the Generals/officials far away from the center of the empire. The Islamic empires also have this similar arrangement and they called this temporary resting places for travellers/traders as "Waqaf". After time some of these Waqafs became large cities [6]. Obviously this arrangement is not security foolproof (similar to today) and they introduced and made popular the concept of "sakk" or "cheque" (meaning contract document) for deferred payment to avoid carrying gold/cash for the traders along the Silk Routes [7]. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_conquered_by_the_Ottoman_Empire https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_conquered_by_th... [2]Port-Cities in the Ottoman Empire, https://www.jstor.org/stable/40241274 https://www.jstor.org/stable/40241274 [3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vassal_state https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vassal_state [4]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dubrovnik https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dubrovnik [5]https://www.bilaterals.org/?taiwan-says-trade-deal-would-show https://www.bilaterals.org/?taiwan-says-trade-deal-would-sho... [6]https://muslimheritage.com/mega-cities-on-the-silk-road/ https://muslimheritage.com/mega-cities-on-the-silk-road/ [7]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheque https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheque
orange_tee 6y ago
Not a BREXITer but the libdems are putting way too much trust in the EU. This can potentially backfire in the recent future when the EU does not perform as well as it should. When you actually look at the metrics you do not actually see the EU as a whole performing better than the UK and definitely worse than the US and Australia.
- baq 6y ago
  quarter and half the planet away from UK respectively. geography matters.
mensetmanusman 6y ago
COVID has played more of a role.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
IdontRememberIt 6y ago
Comparing covid and pre-covid figures and being surprised is... surprising... Let's compare the figures in 10 years. For Swiss people old like me, we still remember the exact same misleading articles when Switzerland said NO to Europe in 1992. Switzerland had to adapt and is going fine today (minus covid). Hopefully UK will do the same.
- corty 6y ago
  "Doing good" is relative to what our aims are. Switzerland has to obey all EU rules and regulations or they loose market access and open borders, which would be catastrophic given their trade is mostly with the EU and they are completely surrounded by EU members. However, Switzerland has no say in deciding any of those rules and regulations. They just get a "take it or leave everything" deal each time. So while Switzerland is doing fine, they are, at least when it comes to trade, borders and certain security measures like weapons controls, very much a second class member. I'm quite sure that is the opposite of what the Brexiteers intended, at least in my interpretation of their aims.
- guitarbill 6y ago
  Potentially a land border is better, so people can cross to buy food and petrol. I'm sure there are also old Germans around who remember the price increases when switching from DM to €. These kinds of things are complicated. I'm also not sure if these articles are supposed to be pro-EU fear-mongering, or simply a wake-up call to people in the UK to deal with the consequences of Brexit and "adapt"?
IG_Semmelweiss 6y ago
this was such a missed opportunity for the UK. They had a only-in-a-lifetime chance to start from a scratch with their regulatory framework governing exports. They should have replaced the EU captive market they were about to lose, with sufficient trade deals with the rest of the world so that when the time came, they would have had a much stronger negotiating with the EU. They would have had a healthier economy right before COVID, too. Instead of hunting around the world for deals and getting their industry free rein to produce more and export away, they wasted their entire time bickering with the EU ...who was happy to sit tight and let the UK take the blame. I guess when you know that politicians were in charge, you can easily assume nothing productive would come out of it.

86 points by belltaco 6y ago

Interesting tweet about how much blame EU deserves for this. https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1358036501729337347?s=19 https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1358036501729337347...

pjmlp 6y ago
Yep, what a surprise! /s
capableweb 6y ago
Not sure if you linked the right tweet or I'm missing something. This is what I see: > There is a notion that the EU is punishing us. That our exports have to jump through more hoops than e.g. Norwegian products. > This is what we agreed to. What we wanted. We didn't opt for the Norway model (e.g. alignment). > This is not punishment, this was our choice. That to me seems to say that this is self-inflicted, not something that the EU as a group inflicted on the UK. Not to dismiss the idea that UK is leaving the EU, not that the EU is kicking out UK. So I guess when it comes to "how much blame the EU deserves for this", it seems the answer is "none".
- dariusj18 6y ago
  Also, the EU has no motivation to make Brexit look like a success.
- gspr 6y ago
  > So I guess when it comes to "how much blame the EU deserves for this", it seems the answer is "none". I think that was the point the parent post was trying to make.
  - flembat 6y ago
    The UKs friends in Europe have decided to treat the UK more like an adversary than a typical third party. So certainly the EU is also to blame.
    - Hamuko 6y ago
      Which typical parties are you referring to now?
    - kergonath 6y ago
      The EU's friends in the UK have decided to be treated more like a third country than a typical partner. Surely they are responsible for their actions?
- cmmeur01 6y ago
  We want to be treated as club member and reap all the perks, but we don't want to be in the club though.
  - lou1306 6y ago
    And the irony is, you actually were reaping a lot of the perks while not being "in the club" under many, many respects (the €, first of all). Just a sad, sad turn of events all around.
    - that_guy_iain 6y ago
      The UK had literally the best deal in Europe. They had a rebate, they weren't a member of the schengen area, they refused the Euro, etc. They then went and got more concessions and then decided to leave. And now the hardcore Brexit people think all the negative effects they were warned about for 5+ years is the EU punishing them.
      - imtringued 6y ago
        From a pragmatic standpoint the Euro is a complete failure. I don't blame any country that decided against adopting it. However, the rest is relatively solid. There are warts and inefficiencies like in every governing body but it's does its job as an economic union.
        jokethrowaway 6y ago
        I disagree, every added governing body is a failure in itself. I would prefer to just see a Europe-light with countries maintaining their currency and laws and just dropping trade restrictions, import taxes and need for touristic visas. I'd even extend it to any country in the world, let the customer decide if the want to buy from China or from the UK
        lou1306 6y ago
        But "dropping trade restrictions, import taxes and need for touristic visas" automatically leads to production shifting towards the countries with the loosest regulation and the lowest wages. So, you need at least a supranational regulation body that tries to make regulations uniform across the zone. But then, you need a supranational body of elected officials to jointly control that regulation body, by passing legislation. But then, you need an executive body that sets the agenda of the legislative body. And some judiciary mechanisms to handle transgressions to the laws and regulations coming from all these organs. And then... you basically end up with something pretty similar to the EU as we know it. (I'm not saying the EU is perfect, mind you. Just that they didn't create such a complex collection of institutions just "for the lulz")
- kergonath 6y ago
  Everything was predicted a long time ago. All the friction at the border is the inevitable consequence of the choices the successive British governments made. I like to show this as a demonstration: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agZ0xISi40E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agZ0xISi40E .
thinkingemote 6y ago
There is also a theory that the delays and controversy of Brexit have been caused by the remainers who want to reverse the referendum, in other words some people out there blame the trouble caused on those who didn't want there to be trouble in the first place.
- kergonath 6y ago
  At which point in the process were they in any position to do anything, though?
yread 6y ago
Of course it's largely UK's own making. But EU surely didn't make it any easier. The VAT rules alone make it really difficult for small business to export to EU. Each country has its own rules, thresholds and agencies. Compared to how easy is it for us in the EU to do business within EU it's crazy. That's why UK's own government recommends opening a subsidiary in the EU.
- lottin 6y ago
  Exporters don't pay VAT, importers do.
  - yread 6y ago
    I admit I only looked into very quickly but it seems that UK business might need fiscal representatives in each EU country they do business with https://www.avalara.com/vatlive/en/vat-services/fiscal-representative-for-eu-vat.html https://www.avalara.com/vatlive/en/vat-services/fiscal-repre...
- krona 6y ago
  I was under the impression that most of the rule changes apply to the vast majority of cross-border B2C sellers in the EU from July: https://www.pwc.ch/en/insights/tax/new-ecommerce-eu-vat-rules-july-2021.html https://www.pwc.ch/en/insights/tax/new-ecommerce-eu-vat-rule...
- corty 6y ago
  The EU cannot make it any easier. Not because it wouldn't be possible at all, just that it would be suicidal for the EU or its politicians for several reasons. There are tendencies in several members to leave the EU or at least get rid of a few of the treaties. That means that leaving the EU in any really beneficial way for the UK would be strengthening the "leave" position in other members. And while the UK alone leaving is bad, more members leaving would be far worse. Then there is the topic of the UK rebate and the UK's special role in several treaties. The EU has always had to pamper the UK and the UK gave nothing but grief in return. It would have been political suicide for the EU leadership to give any impression of continuing to pamper the Brits in the Brexit treaties. Also, beneficial status for a non-member would weaken the EU position in treaties with other non-members such as Norway, Switzerland, Japan, Canada, etc. And then there is the problem of the UK being not really one country but a haphazard agglomeration of several territories. While Great Britain is somewhat uniform, Northern Ireland is special. There are several reasons for treating it in a special way in the Brexit treaty, like a looming civil war, a possible Irish veto, a possible smuggling route into the EU market. But it was clear from the start that this would hugely complicate matters. Same for Gibraltar and the channel Islands, French and Spanish vetoes looming, etc. I won't be surprised if the Brexit treaties don't hold forever. If the UK feels the squeeze of non-forthcoming trade with the rest of the world and diminishing trade with the EU, a more aligned status like the Norway/Switzerland model is possible. And I guess there will be a realignment of Northern Ireland and Gibraltar in some way, either towards a more unified UK or towards a weakened UK and Spanish/Irish unity, depending on what kind of hit the respective nations will take during COVID and the next few years. But from an internal EU point of view, the current Brexit treaty is the farthest the EU could have gone.
baq 6y ago
Of course. Nobody says it aloud but there were multiple members with anti-EU, pro-exit governments before brexit. Not anymore precisely because UK didn’t get any favors to put it mildly.

gonzo41 6y ago

I remember watching the vote on HN, and a woman vox polled at the tube sation said she voted leave, but didn't think it'd get up. Brexit has consumed the UK for the last 5 years with it's totally inwards looking activity. COVID was a black swan event that will be bad for this generations outcomes. Brexit was totally avoidable but will have much the same lingering suppression of economic activity.

dariusj18 6y ago
I still can't believe they started Brexit because of a non-binding referendum that only got 52% of the vote. You'd think to start something so massive in scope they would at least want a super-majority buy in.
ben_w 6y ago
From what I’ve read [0], the economic effects of the pandemic will mostly be gone in a few years, but the economic effects of Brexit will last for multiple decades. [0] newspaper articles, so the Michael Crichton [1] amnesia effect applies [1] Michael Crichton came up with it and called it the “Gell-Mann Amnesia effect” because “by dropping a famous name I imply greater importance to myself, and to the effect, than it would otherwise have”.
- spindle 6y ago
  That always makes me laugh. The full thing: http://xeny.net/The%20Gell-Mann%20Amnesia%20Effect http://xeny.net/The%20Gell-Mann%20Amnesia%20Effect
- lm28469 6y ago
  > the economic effects of the pandemic will mostly be gone in a few years I'm not an expert but afaik we're still in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis during which virtually every country in the west contracted insane amount of debt to save their economies, and this is exactly what we're doing again right now. I have my doubt any of this will be "mostly gone" in a few years, more like we're going to pay for it over the next X generations https://theconversation.com/the-uk-governments-covid-spending-may-lead-to-inflation-150405 https://theconversation.com/the-uk-governments-covid-spendin... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/uk-government-debt-borrwing-coronavirus-lockdown-b1777589.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/uk-government-de... https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-warns-countries-to-watch-debt-while-fighting-coronavirus/ https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-warns-countries-to-watch-... https://globalnews.ca/news/7318316/us-debt-coronavirus-exceed-economy/ https://globalnews.ca/news/7318316/us-debt-coronavirus-excee... https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fiscal-cbo-idUSKCN26D0CW https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fiscal-cbo-idUSKCN26D0CW https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-economy-was-laden-with-debt-before-covid-thats-bad-news-for-a-recovery-11601566931 https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-economy-was-laden-with-... https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/06/business/us-debt-deficit-coronavirus/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/06/business/us-debt-deficit-...

hackeraccount 6y ago

The implication here is that this is a win/loss type thing. UK loses and the EU wins. The reality is that both sides are losing.

LatteLazy 6y ago
Yes, but Britian is losing more so we win! - brexiteer position
- danieldk 6y ago
  "They're now British fish and they're better and happier fish for it." - Jacob Rees-Mogg If one hadn't lived through the last decade or so, you'd be convinced that this was a Monty Python sketch or Onion article.
ceejayoz 6y ago
Sure, but that’s not a surprise to the EU. They warned they’d be the result from the start.
danieldk 6y ago
Sure, but it was the UK's choice to leave. Self-inflicted damage naturally receives more scorn than damage inflicted by another party.
SideburnsOfDoom 6y ago
> The reality is that both sides are losing. And also, the reality is that one side is losing more than the other side. And it's the smaller side that loses more.
jokethrowaway 6y ago
That's debatable. The UK success will be dependent on its capacity to attract capital (as it always was). Being English speaking is great to attract American capital. Being outside of European covid debt payments is another advantage. The freedom to compete on taxation with the world will be another one.

88 6y ago

There is also the minor issue of a global pandemic and the UK being in a national lockdown.

ris 6y ago
So, yes, this is a comparison againt January last year, pre-pandemic. I'm in no way a brexiteer, but I do wish people wouldn't do lead articles with such easily refutable arguments. But of course, this is the Guardian - they know their audience, they know who they're talking to and aren't too interested in persuading someone from outside their half of the bubbleverse.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- midasuni 6y ago
  If it was down to covid then imports would be equally affected. Import changes don’t come in for a few more month, and are at normalish levels.
flohofwoe 6y ago
This is addressed about halfway into the article. > Trade experts said part of the reason for the sharp fall in exports was the coincidence of Brexit and the pandemic. But several heads of trade bodies fear worse is to come. ...with more information to follow.
- ris 6y ago
  I wouldn't exactly call that "addressing" it. It's vague hand-waving about some guesswork done by some un-named "trade experts". The later mentions are from Gove of all people. Any brexiteer reading this rather than being convinced will just dismiss it as project fear. But as I've said elsewhere, this isn't an article for brexiteers, it's a warm-bath article to reinforce their readership's beliefs.
raesene9 6y ago
There is indeed, which is why it was so surprising that the UK gov. turned down the offer to extend the transition period, which could have stopped these two economic events overlapping.

jedisct1 6y ago

Just went to Marks&Spencer in Paris today. The store was 90% empty. No more fresh products, and mostly just leftovers of other products since Brexit. Feels so weird.

Hamuko 6y ago
At the moment it's kinda hard to tell which part is Brexit and which part is COVID-19 (and especially the new variants).
- rich_sasha 6y ago
  Except for the New Variant mishap, import/export was surprisingly smooth under pandemic Europe.
- kergonath 6y ago
  Having gone shopping regularly there during December and January, the major change was when lorries stopped crossing the channel. That's when we started seing empty shelves. The pandemic by itself never managed that.
- FartyMcFarter 6y ago
  Are you saying the same thing is happening at non-British chains, or is there some other reason?

tibbydudeza 6y ago

What a disaster.

LatteLazy 6y ago

"Fuck Business" - the official position of the man who went on to be elected PM on the basis he'd deliver a harder brexit than the other guy.

joshuaissac 6y ago
For context, this was what Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said when he was asked about business concerns over Brexit. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/06/23/eu-diplomats-shocked-boriss-four-letter-reply-business-concerns/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/06/23/eu-diplomats...
- LatteLazy 6y ago
  Thanks, I should have provided some context.

nasmorn 6y ago

I always bought my kids bikes from a great little UK company, Isla Bikes. But now they can no longer give you a price, you need to get a quote. Some extra parts are out of stock and you would need to go through it again. I just went with a German company.

Mediterraneo10 6y ago
Yeah, late last year I was set to order from a famous UK maker of bespoke bicycles, but I had to cancel. Now the EU imposes duties based on the origin of all components that are sourced from outside the UK. Most high-quality steel bike frames are from Taiwan, the parts might be from Malaysia or the USA, etc. There is very little on a bicycle that was actually made in the UK, it was just assembled there. So, I too went with a German company.
krona 6y ago
https://twitter.com/Islabikes/status/1350049775329177600 https://twitter.com/Islabikes/status/1350049775329177600 Seems most of their bikes components aren't UK sourced (so there is a tariff), which isn't surprising let's be honest. That being said any bike I've bought in the UK in the past 20 years has also been subject to similar tariffs, owing to Japanese/Taiwanese components.

glintik 6y ago

Bad for business, bad for UK people, bad for EU people. UK authorities, are you still sane?

baq 6y ago
Good for UK elites, especially those like Farage with EU passports.
- CydeWeys 6y ago
  I would argue that it isn't even good for most UK elites. Whatever benefits they're getting out of it are likely to be swamped by the overall downturn of the British economy in the future, an economy that they are presumably heavily invested in.

nickhalfasleep 6y ago

It's clear the winner here is not the citizens of Great Britain, but of those who use London as a secret store of their unusual wealth, which now escapes EU oversight.

teleforce 6y ago

It seems that those who are championing the freedom for humanity in EU and and USA cannot seems to champion for freedom of economy. How can you have freedom for humanity if they cannot openly trade with each others without unnecessary restrictions? It seems that what EU (federation of participating countries) and USA (federation of participating states) practices of major trade blocs are not unlike the old empires, but the age of empires namely Imperial China, Byzantine, Mughal and Ottoman probably fare much better with their openness to trades. The trade blocs as we know today was started by the Hanseatic League of the Holy Roman Empire that is neither Holy nor Roman nor an Empire [1]. [1]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_bloc https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_bloc

corty 6y ago
Back in the good old empire days, openness to trades meant letting tradespeople in at all. Others just forbade traders to cross the border, in a closed way like nowadays maybe North Korea. The "openness" consisted of accepting traders, but with tariffs and restrictions on tradeable goods as well as necessary bribes and taxes. Not to mention the nonexistence of any kind of protection along the routes, you just had protection within the walls of a city, and then only when paying the necessary taxes. If you wanted protection for the route, you had to hire your own soldiers. The granularity of it all varied, usually trade in Central Europe was regulated differently by each city, so you had to pay your dues when crossing the city gates. Others had larger territories, there you had to pay at the border crossings in addition to each city. Oh, and not trading in a city because of taxes? Big no-no, only cities had the right of market, meaning you got in big trouble for that. I would suggest even the most restrictive trade policy today is more free than in the empires you enumerated. There is only a difference in sophistication of the rules, because nowadays there are far more varied goods and that "unnecessary" stuff like consumer protection.
- teleforce 6y ago
  Your views are very simplistic with regard to how the empires operates. I think that your views are mainly from the European perspectives when at the times they have what you called "dark ages" where the quality of life during the time span period is worst than the time before and after that. For the rest of the world's empires the arrangement are more sophisticated than that namely Imperial China, Byzantine, Mughal and Ottoman. Most of these empires works like the current trade blocs, and the members of the empires pay taxes to their master [1][2]. Those smaller autonomous states or countries who are not directly under the empires most of the times pay tributary "protection taxes" or Arabic "jizya" where they becomes vassal countries/states of the bigger empires [3]. One of common examples are the Dubrovnik in Croatia which was under Ottoman protection for about 500 years! [4]. At its peak it rivals The City of Venice and this is only one famous examples of a major city not directly under a particular empire but flourished under the protection. I can provide more examples but I hope you get the points. This arrangement is something like countries not belongs USA but in which under NAFTA trade blocs. This thriving ancient port cities can be like Taiwan today and Taiwan is probably probably moving towards this exact direction [5]. Interestingly since Holy Roman Empire (HRE) is not technically an empire, Hanseatic League of HRE based countries initiated the trade blocs among themselves to emulate a trading under one unified empire. As I mentioned previously this is the basis of our current trade blocs. You also claimed the non-existence of any kind of protection along the trade routes. This is not particularly true since the Imperial China has extensive guard posts along the the Silk Routes and the distance between them is reportedly one "marhalah" or around 45 km meaning that a horse can run without stopping between these two guard posts. If you like this is the earlier version of the Pony Express since they also used the posts as messengers to deliver the important news (e.g. emperor has died) to the Generals/officials far away from the center of the empire. The Islamic empires also have this similar arrangement and they called this temporary resting places for travellers/traders as "Waqaf". After time some of these Waqafs became large cities [6]. Obviously this arrangement is not security foolproof (similar to today) and they introduced and made popular the concept of "sakk" or "cheque" (meaning contract document) for deferred payment to avoid carrying gold/cash for the traders along the Silk Routes [7]. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_conquered_by_the_Ottoman_Empire https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_conquered_by_th... [2]Port-Cities in the Ottoman Empire, https://www.jstor.org/stable/40241274 https://www.jstor.org/stable/40241274 [3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vassal_state https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vassal_state [4]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dubrovnik https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dubrovnik [5]https://www.bilaterals.org/?taiwan-says-trade-deal-would-show https://www.bilaterals.org/?taiwan-says-trade-deal-would-sho... [6]https://muslimheritage.com/mega-cities-on-the-silk-road/ https://muslimheritage.com/mega-cities-on-the-silk-road/ [7]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheque https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheque

orange_tee 6y ago

Not a BREXITer but the libdems are putting way too much trust in the EU. This can potentially backfire in the recent future when the EU does not perform as well as it should. When you actually look at the metrics you do not actually see the EU as a whole performing better than the UK and definitely worse than the US and Australia.

baq 6y ago
quarter and half the planet away from UK respectively. geography matters.

mensetmanusman 6y ago

COVID has played more of a role.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

IdontRememberIt 6y ago

Comparing covid and pre-covid figures and being surprised is... surprising... Let's compare the figures in 10 years. For Swiss people old like me, we still remember the exact same misleading articles when Switzerland said NO to Europe in 1992. Switzerland had to adapt and is going fine today (minus covid). Hopefully UK will do the same.

corty 6y ago
"Doing good" is relative to what our aims are. Switzerland has to obey all EU rules and regulations or they loose market access and open borders, which would be catastrophic given their trade is mostly with the EU and they are completely surrounded by EU members. However, Switzerland has no say in deciding any of those rules and regulations. They just get a "take it or leave everything" deal each time. So while Switzerland is doing fine, they are, at least when it comes to trade, borders and certain security measures like weapons controls, very much a second class member. I'm quite sure that is the opposite of what the Brexiteers intended, at least in my interpretation of their aims.
guitarbill 6y ago
Potentially a land border is better, so people can cross to buy food and petrol. I'm sure there are also old Germans around who remember the price increases when switching from DM to €. These kinds of things are complicated. I'm also not sure if these articles are supposed to be pro-EU fear-mongering, or simply a wake-up call to people in the UK to deal with the consequences of Brexit and "adapt"?

IG_Semmelweiss 6y ago

this was such a missed opportunity for the UK. They had a only-in-a-lifetime chance to start from a scratch with their regulatory framework governing exports. They should have replaced the EU captive market they were about to lose, with sufficient trade deals with the rest of the world so that when the time came, they would have had a much stronger negotiating with the EU. They would have had a healthier economy right before COVID, too. Instead of hunting around the world for deals and getting their industry free rein to produce more and export away, they wasted their entire time bickering with the EU ...who was happy to sit tight and let the UK take the blame. I guess when you know that politicians were in charge, you can easily assume nothing productive would come out of it.