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GM and Ford have billions of man hours assembling cars... and a super-tight battery supply chain they share with every other car maker scrambling to secure batt

GM and Ford have billions of man hours assembling cars... and a super-tight battery supply chain they share with every other car maker scrambling to secure battery supplies right now. They can assemble the fuck out of those car parts, but in the end they are cranking out expensive cars with crappy range because they have no reliable battery source. Tesla has spent the past 15 years getting their battery supply chain squared away. You think GM and Ford are going to pull that out of their ass tomorrow?

axaxs 6y ago
No of course not. I guess I meant they could use each others' experience. And it's not about simply assembling things. Ford and GM have tons of engineering and experience on hand.
chii 6y ago
It depends on whether the battery sourcing and assembly is a harder problem than car assembly. The reason, may be, why Tesla had a lot of issues is that they are blazing a new trail. Now that it's been shown that batteries are viable to make at scale, the capital will be available, and it's just sourcing mines and raw materials. I fail to believe Tesla can monopolize the world entire supply.
- ogre_codes 6y ago
  Capital is there. But that capacity isn't going to come online over-night. "Just sourcing mines"... the capacity for raw materials doesn't exist. New mines have to be dug. That means acquiring property with materials, permitting, sourcing equipment to dig the mines, digging the material, building refining equipment, building factories to package the batteries. All of this takes time to bring online. I'm not saying capacity will never exist, but for the next 5-10 years, auto manufacturers are going to be fighting for as much lithium and battery raw materials as they can get their hands on. Tesla has a handle on this, Ford doesn't. How many years is it going to take for that capacity to come online while Ford/ GM/ etc bleed market share?
  - rswail 6y ago
    Bleed market share to who? Tesla? Tesla has a 3 model line up, with announcements of a truck and a prime mover. There are battery manufacturers ramping up besides the Tesla/Panasonic alliance, including companies like BYD that Warren Buffet invested in back in 2008. All of the auto industry (or more likely, the overall "mobility" industry as MaaS starts to make inroads) is on a 5-10 year hockey stick. Everyone is going to be scrambling.

axaxs 6y ago

No of course not. I guess I meant they could use each others' experience. And it's not about simply assembling things. Ford and GM have tons of engineering and experience on hand.

chii 6y ago

It depends on whether the battery sourcing and assembly is a harder problem than car assembly. The reason, may be, why Tesla had a lot of issues is that they are blazing a new trail. Now that it's been shown that batteries are viable to make at scale, the capital will be available, and it's just sourcing mines and raw materials. I fail to believe Tesla can monopolize the world entire supply.

ogre_codes 6y ago
Capital is there. But that capacity isn't going to come online over-night. "Just sourcing mines"... the capacity for raw materials doesn't exist. New mines have to be dug. That means acquiring property with materials, permitting, sourcing equipment to dig the mines, digging the material, building refining equipment, building factories to package the batteries. All of this takes time to bring online. I'm not saying capacity will never exist, but for the next 5-10 years, auto manufacturers are going to be fighting for as much lithium and battery raw materials as they can get their hands on. Tesla has a handle on this, Ford doesn't. How many years is it going to take for that capacity to come online while Ford/ GM/ etc bleed market share?
- rswail 6y ago
  Bleed market share to who? Tesla? Tesla has a 3 model line up, with announcements of a truck and a prime mover. There are battery manufacturers ramping up besides the Tesla/Panasonic alliance, including companies like BYD that Warren Buffet invested in back in 2008. All of the auto industry (or more likely, the overall "mobility" industry as MaaS starts to make inroads) is on a 5-10 year hockey stick. Everyone is going to be scrambling.