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It’s unclear what happens to the batteries after such a long period. The first modern EVs are still only 5-6 years old. That said the battery degradation on EVs
by woeirua 6y ago
It’s unclear what happens to the batteries after such a long period. The first modern EVs are still only 5-6 years old. That said the battery degradation on EVs with active thermal management looks pretty good. It’s plausible that batteries in the future will last the entire lifespan of the vehicle: at least 200k miles.
The most common repairs on an EV can be done at your regular mechanic. The only thing that will probably require going to the dealership will be main battery work. But here’s the thing, EVs have so many fewer moving parts that they’re far less likely to have severe mechanical breakdowns. All of the data to date shows that the expected cost of maintenance over the life of a typical car will be drastically less for EVs.
The grid will be adapted as people electrify. It won’t happen overnight. I’m not worried about the price of electricity. The cost of renewables has fallen by 90% in the last decade and will continue to decrease in the next decade. Fossil fuels for cars and light trucks will not be economic by the middle of this decade period. That’s without heavy subsidies or taxes.
Electric vehicles will help lower income people because their total cost of ownership is significantly less than ICE vehicles. While they’re more expensive today, by the time electrification goes mainstream there will be a wide range of used electric cars for people to buy at all price points. Also, in the near term no one is saying you have to get rid of all gas cars. Most families could get by with one gas car and one electric.
- polishdude20 6y agoI feel like with the reliability and durability of EV's the used market will not have remarkably low prices compared to gas cars. Low income families will still go with gas as they will get cheaper as well.
- woeirua 6y agoThere's a big generational tech advantage, so we're seeing big depreciation on older EVS. I expect that trend to continue for at least a few more years. The 2017 Chevy Bolt for example will end up probably costing less than $10k here in two more years. That's pretty cheap. You also have to keep in mind that the economies of scale for EVS are just ramping up. They're more expensive now brand new but it won't be long at all before they're priced competitively against gas cars at the dealer. Also, a carbon tax will happen sooner or later. That will push people from all income levels towards electric vehicles.
- imtringued 6y agoYes, once EVs have matured they will keep their value after adjusting for subsidies (there are lots of stupid articles that don't understand why a used EV with 0 miles goes for 5k less than a new one). However, this should make financing a car more predictable. It's better to own something that costs X amount per month than to get a steal and have unbudgeted surprise expenses if you are poor. Exploitation happens when someone is unable to make an informed decision because of information asymmetry.