5 ms·

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles wi

by Ralo 6y ago

I've been a car guy since my teens, and have nearly everyone around me be some sort of mechanic but I've wondered a couple things about why electric vehicles will have mass appeal. Most electric vehicles seem to have their value based in the battery pack, but these batteries packs have a life span of 10~ years, right? Do these vehicles have zero value after ten years (assuming the batteries are bad then), high mileage or not? I managed to save thousands of dollars in high school/university just driving a beater and fixing it as stuff broke, but an electric vehicle isn't something that can be casually repaired right? Even if in 20-30 years when parts are cheap and plentiful, you need to be a skilled engineer (or at least highly trained) to do these repairs right? When the world is swapped to electric vehicles, can our grid handle that? and if so, why wouldn't our local governments be increasing our electric bills? I cannot see how it would be cheaper than gas, sure some charging stations are free now because it niche, but it wont be in the future. I'm not against electric vehicles, but I just see this hurting low-income people.

aerovistae 6y ago
That far into the future cars will most likely be autonomous. there isn't really any point to speculating that far out, who knows what could happen. Look at 2020....
- jdxcode 6y ago
  Or 1894 when people predicted the death of urban cities due to horse manure: https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis-of-1894/ https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great...
- camjohnson26 6y ago
  Self driving cars are today’s flying cars, always 5 years away.
acover 6y ago
I'm not an expert but there is data for your question. They don't have 0 value. Tesla's usually still have above 90% capacity at 250,000 km [0]. That's still a usable car. Further tesla has stated old car batteries are still useful for grid electricity. [0] https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-replacement/ https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-rep...
e_y_ 6y ago
EV batteries don't instantly die. After ten years, it'll probably be down 10-20% of its original capacity, which is still drivable but might not work for everyone's commute. In that case, the battery can be potentially refurbished or repurposed for energy storage. Cars, not just electric ones, have gotten more complex and have software that may need special equipment to diagnose. EVs are simpler and more robust in a number of ways, and might eventually be cheaper to maintain than gas cars once there's enough of them on the road.
- Ralo 6y ago
  I've swapped engines before and it's usually a weekend job costing around $1000-1500 and you essential bring your mileage back down to 0 (assuming you rebuilt the engine before installing). I could see dropping the battery pack and getting it repaired be a comparable option in the future.
  - jdxcode 6y ago
    The battery has to weigh a TON: I can’t imagine this being a shadetree job ever.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
HenryKissinger 6y ago
> I managed to save thousands of dollars in high school/university just driving a beater and fixing it as stuff broke, but an electric vehicle isn't something that can be casually repaired right? Even if in 20-30 years when parts are cheap and plentiful, you need to be a skilled engineer (or at least highly trained) to do these repairs right? People will train themselves. In the world of science fiction, ordinary people fix spaceships and other futuristic vehicles all the time. The same thing will happen (will have to happen) in reality if we're going to have a futuristic society.
- EvanAnderson 6y ago
  You underestimate the power of manufacturers to use DRM to prevent "unauthorized" repairs.
  - totalZero 6y ago
    A remedy to that is available. Right to repair has gained some traction in the automotive space in the past decade and Massachusetts has extended its law to include vehicle data standards. This is important because manufacturers generally don't like to make several variants of the same basic systems, so an individual state can have a nationwide impact. https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/4/21549129/massachusetts-right-to-repair-question-1-wireless-car-data-passes https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/4/21549129/massachusetts-ri...
  - Ralo 6y ago
    cries in john deere
- Qwertious 6y ago
  >In the world of science fiction, ordinary people fix spaceships and other futuristic vehicles all the time. Just so we're clear: You're saying that ordinary peoples' ability in popular fantasies has some bearing on real world expectations?
- rswail 6y ago
  Most of the parts on an electric car are the same as an ICE car, except that there's a lot less in the drivetrain. So the suspension is the same, the trim and things like lights etc. What's different is basically the battery pack, which is "unrepairable" without disassembly and the electric motors and regenerative braking. There's a lot less to fix on an EV. Which is going to put dealerships out of business, because that's their purpose.
ogre_codes 6y ago
EV batteries degrade over time, they generally don't just die. There are some batteries which have 300,000 miles on them. Not sure how they degrade over time without as much driving. Right now, replacing a Tesla battery pack is $16,000. That puts a pretty hard bottom on the resale value of old cars. It's really hard to say what the market will look like for older EVs. Battery prices come down every year so it feels like in 10 years the $16k battery pack will be a lot less expensive. You might be able to pick up an older Tesla with a run down battery that has really shitty range. It's hard to say, for the moment cheap used EVs are mostly LEAFs. Used Teslas, even older ones tend to be pricey.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
woeirua 6y ago
It’s unclear what happens to the batteries after such a long period. The first modern EVs are still only 5-6 years old. That said the battery degradation on EVs with active thermal management looks pretty good. It’s plausible that batteries in the future will last the entire lifespan of the vehicle: at least 200k miles. The most common repairs on an EV can be done at your regular mechanic. The only thing that will probably require going to the dealership will be main battery work. But here’s the thing, EVs have so many fewer moving parts that they’re far less likely to have severe mechanical breakdowns. All of the data to date shows that the expected cost of maintenance over the life of a typical car will be drastically less for EVs. The grid will be adapted as people electrify. It won’t happen overnight. I’m not worried about the price of electricity. The cost of renewables has fallen by 90% in the last decade and will continue to decrease in the next decade. Fossil fuels for cars and light trucks will not be economic by the middle of this decade period. That’s without heavy subsidies or taxes. Electric vehicles will help lower income people because their total cost of ownership is significantly less than ICE vehicles. While they’re more expensive today, by the time electrification goes mainstream there will be a wide range of used electric cars for people to buy at all price points. Also, in the near term no one is saying you have to get rid of all gas cars. Most families could get by with one gas car and one electric.
- polishdude20 6y ago
  I feel like with the reliability and durability of EV's the used market will not have remarkably low prices compared to gas cars. Low income families will still go with gas as they will get cheaper as well.
  - woeirua 6y ago
    There's a big generational tech advantage, so we're seeing big depreciation on older EVS. I expect that trend to continue for at least a few more years. The 2017 Chevy Bolt for example will end up probably costing less than $10k here in two more years. That's pretty cheap. You also have to keep in mind that the economies of scale for EVS are just ramping up. They're more expensive now brand new but it won't be long at all before they're priced competitively against gas cars at the dealer. Also, a carbon tax will happen sooner or later. That will push people from all income levels towards electric vehicles.
tourdownunder 6y ago
> but an electric vehicle isn't something that can be casually repaired right There is aftermarket batteries to put life back in a Nissan leaf. > can our grid handle that? Not in the few hours of peak though there are charges that understand the time of day costs and will only charge in certain times when the grid is cheaper. Some electric vehicles such as the Nissan leaf also have V2G which will help the grid in times of need. > cannot see how it would be cheaper than gas It already is. > I just see this hurting low-income people. You are right it will as people transition off gas it will no longer have economies of scale so the price of gas will rise.
- Ralo 6y ago
  >It already is. That's my point though, it currently is. There's no massive load, its not the majority. If the world switches, cities will be needing to do massive power overhauls and use more resources. This will be translated into electricity rates/taxes increasing. Will it be translated to the rate of gasoline? Who knows. I feel like batteries are right there, and this tesla push for electric cars is giving battery research a new life and we might see batteries be a huge upgrade from gas but I don't think it's entirely there. If it is an upgrade, it's marginal. All things considered, I keep my car budget around $1k and that's been working fantastic for me. That budget if ever possible, won't be viable for many many many years.
  - Qwertious 6y ago
    >If the world switches, cities will be needing to do massive power overhauls and use more resources. This will be translated into electricity rates/taxes increasing. From what I've heard, it'll need to increase by about 5%. Specifically, from what I've heard from ~6:20 in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QLLYauN7sY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QLLYauN7sY . I don't have numbers, but increasing the grid by 5% doesn't sound catastrophically impossible. Not compared to shipping truckloads of fresh petrol to every town on the planet on a weekly basis, at least.
- totalZero 6y ago
  I think that the price of gas would go down. You'd still need refineries for jet fuel, heating oil, etc -- other parts of the distillate -- and existing wells don't really need that much attention to keep producing. But maybe there would be taxes imposed.
raverbashing 6y ago
Fixing a beater DIY style might work for the small number of people that have the tools and patience to learn all the quirks of it (maybe with the exception of things like changing oil and other small things that EVs won't have for the most part) Yes, batteries will need to be recycled if we want a sustainable solution Not sure how EVs will age and how things will work in the end. It wouldn't be surprised to have shorter range ones with refurb batteries
starpilot 6y ago
Replacing a Prius battery costs around $2k and usually happens around 200k miles. If you replace the individual cells that have gone bad, it can cost far less.
throwawaysea 6y ago
Car and Driver found that their Model 3 lost 7% of its battery life in just 24K miles: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a35203450/tesla-model-3-battery-capacity-loss-warranty/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a35203450/tesla-model-3-ba...
- Qwertious 6y ago
  More specifically, the first 7% of its battery life. Generally the first bit of battery life drops the fastest. That definitely sounds possible, but it's just an anecdote and not data.
gnopgnip 6y ago
They won't have zero value after 10 years. But depending on how much the battery wears out, and how much tech and costs advance during that time it could make sense to put in a replacement battery with better than OEM performance. This happens to an extent now with hybrid vehicles, you can get an upgraded battery pack for about $2k all in. An OEM battery is $2500 plus labor. Tesla retail price for a replacement battery is $16k right now, aftermarket for EV would be less. Even factoring in the full OEM price for maintenance, once you account for all of the other maintenance and fuel cost an EV is price competitive overall.

by Ralo 6y ago

aerovistae 6y ago

That far into the future cars will most likely be autonomous. there isn't really any point to speculating that far out, who knows what could happen. Look at 2020....

jdxcode 6y ago
Or 1894 when people predicted the death of urban cities due to horse manure: https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis-of-1894/ https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great...
camjohnson26 6y ago
Self driving cars are today’s flying cars, always 5 years away.

acover 6y ago

I'm not an expert but there is data for your question. They don't have 0 value. Tesla's usually still have above 90% capacity at 250,000 km [0]. That's still a usable car. Further tesla has stated old car batteries are still useful for grid electricity. [0] https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-replacement/ https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-rep...

e_y_ 6y ago

EV batteries don't instantly die. After ten years, it'll probably be down 10-20% of its original capacity, which is still drivable but might not work for everyone's commute. In that case, the battery can be potentially refurbished or repurposed for energy storage. Cars, not just electric ones, have gotten more complex and have software that may need special equipment to diagnose. EVs are simpler and more robust in a number of ways, and might eventually be cheaper to maintain than gas cars once there's enough of them on the road.

Ralo 6y ago
I've swapped engines before and it's usually a weekend job costing around $1000-1500 and you essential bring your mileage back down to 0 (assuming you rebuilt the engine before installing). I could see dropping the battery pack and getting it repaired be a comparable option in the future.
- jdxcode 6y ago
  The battery has to weigh a TON: I can’t imagine this being a shadetree job ever.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

HenryKissinger 6y ago

> I managed to save thousands of dollars in high school/university just driving a beater and fixing it as stuff broke, but an electric vehicle isn't something that can be casually repaired right? Even if in 20-30 years when parts are cheap and plentiful, you need to be a skilled engineer (or at least highly trained) to do these repairs right? People will train themselves. In the world of science fiction, ordinary people fix spaceships and other futuristic vehicles all the time. The same thing will happen (will have to happen) in reality if we're going to have a futuristic society.

EvanAnderson 6y ago
You underestimate the power of manufacturers to use DRM to prevent "unauthorized" repairs.
- totalZero 6y ago
  A remedy to that is available. Right to repair has gained some traction in the automotive space in the past decade and Massachusetts has extended its law to include vehicle data standards. This is important because manufacturers generally don't like to make several variants of the same basic systems, so an individual state can have a nationwide impact. https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/4/21549129/massachusetts-right-to-repair-question-1-wireless-car-data-passes https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/4/21549129/massachusetts-ri...
- Ralo 6y ago
  cries in john deere
Qwertious 6y ago
>In the world of science fiction, ordinary people fix spaceships and other futuristic vehicles all the time. Just so we're clear: You're saying that ordinary peoples' ability in popular fantasies has some bearing on real world expectations?
rswail 6y ago
Most of the parts on an electric car are the same as an ICE car, except that there's a lot less in the drivetrain. So the suspension is the same, the trim and things like lights etc. What's different is basically the battery pack, which is "unrepairable" without disassembly and the electric motors and regenerative braking. There's a lot less to fix on an EV. Which is going to put dealerships out of business, because that's their purpose.

ogre_codes 6y ago

EV batteries degrade over time, they generally don't just die. There are some batteries which have 300,000 miles on them. Not sure how they degrade over time without as much driving. Right now, replacing a Tesla battery pack is $16,000. That puts a pretty hard bottom on the resale value of old cars. It's really hard to say what the market will look like for older EVs. Battery prices come down every year so it feels like in 10 years the $16k battery pack will be a lot less expensive. You might be able to pick up an older Tesla with a run down battery that has really shitty range. It's hard to say, for the moment cheap used EVs are mostly LEAFs. Used Teslas, even older ones tend to be pricey.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

woeirua 6y ago

It’s unclear what happens to the batteries after such a long period. The first modern EVs are still only 5-6 years old. That said the battery degradation on EVs with active thermal management looks pretty good. It’s plausible that batteries in the future will last the entire lifespan of the vehicle: at least 200k miles. The most common repairs on an EV can be done at your regular mechanic. The only thing that will probably require going to the dealership will be main battery work. But here’s the thing, EVs have so many fewer moving parts that they’re far less likely to have severe mechanical breakdowns. All of the data to date shows that the expected cost of maintenance over the life of a typical car will be drastically less for EVs. The grid will be adapted as people electrify. It won’t happen overnight. I’m not worried about the price of electricity. The cost of renewables has fallen by 90% in the last decade and will continue to decrease in the next decade. Fossil fuels for cars and light trucks will not be economic by the middle of this decade period. That’s without heavy subsidies or taxes. Electric vehicles will help lower income people because their total cost of ownership is significantly less than ICE vehicles. While they’re more expensive today, by the time electrification goes mainstream there will be a wide range of used electric cars for people to buy at all price points. Also, in the near term no one is saying you have to get rid of all gas cars. Most families could get by with one gas car and one electric.

polishdude20 6y ago
I feel like with the reliability and durability of EV's the used market will not have remarkably low prices compared to gas cars. Low income families will still go with gas as they will get cheaper as well.
- woeirua 6y ago
  There's a big generational tech advantage, so we're seeing big depreciation on older EVS. I expect that trend to continue for at least a few more years. The 2017 Chevy Bolt for example will end up probably costing less than $10k here in two more years. That's pretty cheap. You also have to keep in mind that the economies of scale for EVS are just ramping up. They're more expensive now brand new but it won't be long at all before they're priced competitively against gas cars at the dealer. Also, a carbon tax will happen sooner or later. That will push people from all income levels towards electric vehicles.

tourdownunder 6y ago

> but an electric vehicle isn't something that can be casually repaired right There is aftermarket batteries to put life back in a Nissan leaf. > can our grid handle that? Not in the few hours of peak though there are charges that understand the time of day costs and will only charge in certain times when the grid is cheaper. Some electric vehicles such as the Nissan leaf also have V2G which will help the grid in times of need. > cannot see how it would be cheaper than gas It already is. > I just see this hurting low-income people. You are right it will as people transition off gas it will no longer have economies of scale so the price of gas will rise.

Ralo 6y ago
>It already is. That's my point though, it currently is. There's no massive load, its not the majority. If the world switches, cities will be needing to do massive power overhauls and use more resources. This will be translated into electricity rates/taxes increasing. Will it be translated to the rate of gasoline? Who knows. I feel like batteries are right there, and this tesla push for electric cars is giving battery research a new life and we might see batteries be a huge upgrade from gas but I don't think it's entirely there. If it is an upgrade, it's marginal. All things considered, I keep my car budget around $1k and that's been working fantastic for me. That budget if ever possible, won't be viable for many many many years.
- Qwertious 6y ago
  >If the world switches, cities will be needing to do massive power overhauls and use more resources. This will be translated into electricity rates/taxes increasing. From what I've heard, it'll need to increase by about 5%. Specifically, from what I've heard from ~6:20 in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QLLYauN7sY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QLLYauN7sY . I don't have numbers, but increasing the grid by 5% doesn't sound catastrophically impossible. Not compared to shipping truckloads of fresh petrol to every town on the planet on a weekly basis, at least.
totalZero 6y ago
I think that the price of gas would go down. You'd still need refineries for jet fuel, heating oil, etc -- other parts of the distillate -- and existing wells don't really need that much attention to keep producing. But maybe there would be taxes imposed.

raverbashing 6y ago

Fixing a beater DIY style might work for the small number of people that have the tools and patience to learn all the quirks of it (maybe with the exception of things like changing oil and other small things that EVs won't have for the most part) Yes, batteries will need to be recycled if we want a sustainable solution Not sure how EVs will age and how things will work in the end. It wouldn't be surprised to have shorter range ones with refurb batteries

starpilot 6y ago

Replacing a Prius battery costs around $2k and usually happens around 200k miles. If you replace the individual cells that have gone bad, it can cost far less.

throwawaysea 6y ago

Car and Driver found that their Model 3 lost 7% of its battery life in just 24K miles: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a35203450/tesla-model-3-battery-capacity-loss-warranty/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a35203450/tesla-model-3-ba...

Qwertious 6y ago
More specifically, the first 7% of its battery life. Generally the first bit of battery life drops the fastest. That definitely sounds possible, but it's just an anecdote and not data.

gnopgnip 6y ago

They won't have zero value after 10 years. But depending on how much the battery wears out, and how much tech and costs advance during that time it could make sense to put in a replacement battery with better than OEM performance. This happens to an extent now with hybrid vehicles, you can get an upgraded battery pack for about $2k all in. An OEM battery is $2500 plus labor. Tesla retail price for a replacement battery is $16k right now, aftermarket for EV would be less. Even factoring in the full OEM price for maintenance, once you account for all of the other maintenance and fuel cost an EV is price competitive overall.