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Europe yes. US, no. The US is in an amazing position in terms of demography and growth. Aging population, but not immigrant averse like Japan and not an island.

Europe yes. US, no. The US is in an amazing position in terms of demography and growth. Aging population, but not immigrant averse like Japan and not an island. The US borders a rising economy with perfect demographics for growth (Mexico). The US is the least involved country in global trade. The US is increasingly disinterested in being the world police, so that capability can be deployed to protect economic interests abroad. We’re headed for global instability, but don’t expect the US to have a fate similar to Europe.

GordonS 6y ago
> not immigrant averse like Japan and not an island As the past 4 years have demonstrated, there is a very large segment of the US population is very much against immigration, and would happily turn the country into an "island" by building walls around the land borders.
- websites222 6y ago
  The last four years can’t really be compared to the last 2000 of Japan’s. Immigration is already ingrained in American culture. The aging boomers will die and be replaced by the most ethnically diverse generation in American history.
  - tjs8rj 6y ago
    It's disingenuous to cast immigration concerns like an "aging boomer thing". The vast majority of Americans are fine with vetted, legal immigration. According to Pew, nearly 80% worry about illegal immigration "At least a little" to "A great deal". Furthermore there are real concerns, costs, and benefits to be weighed with immigration of all kind (legal and not), and dismissing them is just naive. To list a few different people find concerning: depressing wages of domestic population, rapid cultural change of domestic population, brain drain from foreign population, strain on tax / social systems, ineffective vetting allowing cross-border contraband and criminal activity, and so on. All of these are valid and deserve scrutiny and investigation. Obviously there are many beneficial aspects to immigration, and nearly all examples of very successful civilizations in history were at a crossroads of many cultures. Just wanted to make it clear that the immigration debate won't "die with boomers", and it shouldn't, because it is an important discussion to have.
- frockington1 6y ago
  Compared to other nations, the US has the least restrictive immigration laws. The US also benefits by bordering Canada with some of the most restrictive immigration laws. If you want to go where there is growth, there's no other option
  - ardy42 6y ago
    > Compared to other nations, the US has the least restrictive immigration laws. The US also benefits by bordering Canada with some of the most restrictive immigration laws. If you want to go where there is growth, there's no other option I thought Canada was far easier. I knew a software engineer who, about 15 years ago, got the Canadian equivalent of a green card as a "backup" without ever having actually lived there, in case she had problems with her US immigration. It sounded like a box ticking exercise, though this person had two masters degrees (IIRC, the second was to keep her status since she graduated from the first into a recession).
    - smooth_remmy 6y ago
      Canada is easier for legal immigrants, and much harder for illegal immigrants. If you try to illegally immigrate into Canada, they will deport you
  - unicornfinder 6y ago
    Surely you jest? The UK, Canada, Australia are all far easier to immigrate into as a skilled worker.
    - ChuckNorris89 6y ago
      You're right. Though, the tough US immigration laws ensure they only allow in the crem of the crop or the most dedicated illegal immigrants.
- andonisus 6y ago
  The US still allows, and has been allowing over the past four years, people to immigrate.
- _-david-_ 6y ago
  That is not really the case. The last poll I saw said 78% of Americans are fine with some immigration. The exact amount of immigrants and the requirements to come here legally is less uniform in acceptance. The biggest issue is between legal and illegal immigration.
  - tzs 6y ago
    That 78% breaks down to something like 90% of Democrats, 80% of Independents, and 60% of Republicans. Among the Republicans, the 40% who are anti-immigration tend to feel very strongly about it, and are likely to consider it a major issue. The 60% of Republicans who are OK with immigration are less likely to consider it a major issue. This makes it hard nowadays to get Republican support in the House for pro-immigration policies, because a pro-immigration Republican member of the House will attract anti-immigration primary challengers who will get the vote of the 40% who are anti-immigration. With that big bloc in hand its hard for the challenger to lose. You can see a similar thing with abortion. About 60% of Republicans favor keeping Roe v. Wade, about 30% want to overturn it, and the rest are unsure [1]. But how many Republican members of Congress will come out or vote in favor of keeping Roe v. Wade? Pretty close to zero because doing so is political suicide in their next election. [1] https://www.npr.org/2019/06/07/730183531/poll-majority-want-to-keep-abortion-legal-but-they-also-want-restrictions https://www.npr.org/2019/06/07/730183531/poll-majority-want-...
- aaomidi 6y ago
  Good thing is that segment of population is: 1. Dying out. 2. Not in places immigrants want to immigrate to.
  - ardy42 6y ago
    > 2. Not in places immigrants want to immigrate to. There's reason to doubt that. A lot of Trump's support was rural, and a lot of immigrants are farm laborers.
    - WalterSear 6y ago
      Farm laborers perform an essential role, but it isn't one that is driving US economy.
- imtringued 6y ago
  There was an article about this on HN. The perception of polarization is greater than reality. The overlap between republicans and democrats is pretty high. Most of them are only moderately against or in favor of migration.
- WalterSear 6y ago
  Large in number, yes, but not in proportion to the total population. Moreover, mostly in the places where productivity is not happening. Their growing irrelevance and sociocultural aversion to change are primary reasons for their vocality.
pepperonipizza 6y ago
Pretty much all the countries in America have a fertility rate around 2 more or less. Even Mexico is approximately at 2.1 They will start to lose population in a few decades. https://www.cepal.org/en/pressreleases/latin-america-and-caribbean-reach-maximum-population-levels-2058 https://www.cepal.org/en/pressreleases/latin-america-and-car...
mcv 6y ago
Why Europe yes but US no? Europe is also not immigrant-averse and not an island. It doesn't border on Mexico, but it does border on many other countries. I don't see why Europe would suffer a much different fate from the US. I think the main thing holding the EU back is their love for austerity. They could do a lot more to invest in their economy.
- websites222 6y ago
  Europe as a going United concern is headed towards a breakup. Germany’s demographics (and patience) will not not hold to support countries like Greece and Italy, which funded pensions instead of spending their bailouts responsibly. France will flourish, like it always does, because it’s more or less self sufficient and is strategically located and internally configured, but other countries like Spain will flounder due to internal conflicts. All of these will lead to a mixed to poor economic condition of slow growth and low to negative interest rates.
  - me_me_me 6y ago
    Maybe if you are writing a political thriller. EU as a concept is still highly supported amongst adults and young adults. And if anything Brexit strengthened that, since UK is a now a clown that everyone laughs at with all the issues they are going through. A lot of young people migrate between EU countries and just that is the biggest visible positive that all working adults recognise. Its something people would not want to lose willy-nilly. Something realllly serious would have to happen for EU to fail catastrophically.
    - websites222 6y ago
      Nationalism is on the rise. We are 7 decades removed from the horrors of conflict on the continent. Everyone who remembers that is dying. The EU is a globalization project in an era where globalization is on the decline. It was held together by US warships and will fall apart as they recede, a vacuum filled by local, competing powers. Europe will not be immune to it, since it is after all composed of many cultures and many economies with competing aims. It’s not a matter of what people want, it’s a matter of economic realities that will impugn any high-minded desire for unity and collaboration.
godtoldmetodoit 6y ago
You might want to mention some sources in case people are interested in reading more on this theory. Namely: Peter Zeihan. I'm a fan of the guy - his logic and rough predictions certainly seem to be bearing fruit over the last decade. If he's right about the coming decade we are in for a bit of a bumpy ride.
- websites222 6y ago
  Agreed! I'm plagiarizing wholesale from Peter Zeihan, I'm not a geopolitical expert. I recently read Disunited Nations. His YouTube videos and podcasts are very interesting. Re: your comment about being in for a bumpy ride: I think his logic is solid in that the bumpy ride is only in relation to the unprecedented post-WWII/post-cold-war era. We know from history that the norm in the world is instability.
bluthru 6y ago
An economic system simply can't be based around population growth. We're already living unsustainably (with respect to carbon) and population growth works against that. Immigration to keep borrowing money is postponing the inevitable. Encouraging brain drain and people to flee their developing nations works against world stability, competition, prosperity, and quality of life.

GordonS 6y ago

> not immigrant averse like Japan and not an island As the past 4 years have demonstrated, there is a very large segment of the US population is very much against immigration, and would happily turn the country into an "island" by building walls around the land borders.

websites222 6y ago
The last four years can’t really be compared to the last 2000 of Japan’s. Immigration is already ingrained in American culture. The aging boomers will die and be replaced by the most ethnically diverse generation in American history.
- tjs8rj 6y ago
  It's disingenuous to cast immigration concerns like an "aging boomer thing". The vast majority of Americans are fine with vetted, legal immigration. According to Pew, nearly 80% worry about illegal immigration "At least a little" to "A great deal". Furthermore there are real concerns, costs, and benefits to be weighed with immigration of all kind (legal and not), and dismissing them is just naive. To list a few different people find concerning: depressing wages of domestic population, rapid cultural change of domestic population, brain drain from foreign population, strain on tax / social systems, ineffective vetting allowing cross-border contraband and criminal activity, and so on. All of these are valid and deserve scrutiny and investigation. Obviously there are many beneficial aspects to immigration, and nearly all examples of very successful civilizations in history were at a crossroads of many cultures. Just wanted to make it clear that the immigration debate won't "die with boomers", and it shouldn't, because it is an important discussion to have.
frockington1 6y ago
Compared to other nations, the US has the least restrictive immigration laws. The US also benefits by bordering Canada with some of the most restrictive immigration laws. If you want to go where there is growth, there's no other option
- ardy42 6y ago
  > Compared to other nations, the US has the least restrictive immigration laws. The US also benefits by bordering Canada with some of the most restrictive immigration laws. If you want to go where there is growth, there's no other option I thought Canada was far easier. I knew a software engineer who, about 15 years ago, got the Canadian equivalent of a green card as a "backup" without ever having actually lived there, in case she had problems with her US immigration. It sounded like a box ticking exercise, though this person had two masters degrees (IIRC, the second was to keep her status since she graduated from the first into a recession).
  - smooth_remmy 6y ago
    Canada is easier for legal immigrants, and much harder for illegal immigrants. If you try to illegally immigrate into Canada, they will deport you
- unicornfinder 6y ago
  Surely you jest? The UK, Canada, Australia are all far easier to immigrate into as a skilled worker.
  - ChuckNorris89 6y ago
    You're right. Though, the tough US immigration laws ensure they only allow in the crem of the crop or the most dedicated illegal immigrants.
andonisus 6y ago
The US still allows, and has been allowing over the past four years, people to immigrate.
_-david-_ 6y ago
That is not really the case. The last poll I saw said 78% of Americans are fine with some immigration. The exact amount of immigrants and the requirements to come here legally is less uniform in acceptance. The biggest issue is between legal and illegal immigration.
- tzs 6y ago
  That 78% breaks down to something like 90% of Democrats, 80% of Independents, and 60% of Republicans. Among the Republicans, the 40% who are anti-immigration tend to feel very strongly about it, and are likely to consider it a major issue. The 60% of Republicans who are OK with immigration are less likely to consider it a major issue. This makes it hard nowadays to get Republican support in the House for pro-immigration policies, because a pro-immigration Republican member of the House will attract anti-immigration primary challengers who will get the vote of the 40% who are anti-immigration. With that big bloc in hand its hard for the challenger to lose. You can see a similar thing with abortion. About 60% of Republicans favor keeping Roe v. Wade, about 30% want to overturn it, and the rest are unsure [1]. But how many Republican members of Congress will come out or vote in favor of keeping Roe v. Wade? Pretty close to zero because doing so is political suicide in their next election. [1] https://www.npr.org/2019/06/07/730183531/poll-majority-want-to-keep-abortion-legal-but-they-also-want-restrictions https://www.npr.org/2019/06/07/730183531/poll-majority-want-...
aaomidi 6y ago
Good thing is that segment of population is: 1. Dying out. 2. Not in places immigrants want to immigrate to.
- ardy42 6y ago
  > 2. Not in places immigrants want to immigrate to. There's reason to doubt that. A lot of Trump's support was rural, and a lot of immigrants are farm laborers.
  - WalterSear 6y ago
    Farm laborers perform an essential role, but it isn't one that is driving US economy.
imtringued 6y ago
There was an article about this on HN. The perception of polarization is greater than reality. The overlap between republicans and democrats is pretty high. Most of them are only moderately against or in favor of migration.
WalterSear 6y ago
Large in number, yes, but not in proportion to the total population. Moreover, mostly in the places where productivity is not happening. Their growing irrelevance and sociocultural aversion to change are primary reasons for their vocality.

pepperonipizza 6y ago

Pretty much all the countries in America have a fertility rate around 2 more or less. Even Mexico is approximately at 2.1 They will start to lose population in a few decades. https://www.cepal.org/en/pressreleases/latin-america-and-caribbean-reach-maximum-population-levels-2058 https://www.cepal.org/en/pressreleases/latin-america-and-car...

mcv 6y ago

Why Europe yes but US no? Europe is also not immigrant-averse and not an island. It doesn't border on Mexico, but it does border on many other countries. I don't see why Europe would suffer a much different fate from the US. I think the main thing holding the EU back is their love for austerity. They could do a lot more to invest in their economy.

websites222 6y ago
Europe as a going United concern is headed towards a breakup. Germany’s demographics (and patience) will not not hold to support countries like Greece and Italy, which funded pensions instead of spending their bailouts responsibly. France will flourish, like it always does, because it’s more or less self sufficient and is strategically located and internally configured, but other countries like Spain will flounder due to internal conflicts. All of these will lead to a mixed to poor economic condition of slow growth and low to negative interest rates.
- me_me_me 6y ago
  Maybe if you are writing a political thriller. EU as a concept is still highly supported amongst adults and young adults. And if anything Brexit strengthened that, since UK is a now a clown that everyone laughs at with all the issues they are going through. A lot of young people migrate between EU countries and just that is the biggest visible positive that all working adults recognise. Its something people would not want to lose willy-nilly. Something realllly serious would have to happen for EU to fail catastrophically.
  - websites222 6y ago
    Nationalism is on the rise. We are 7 decades removed from the horrors of conflict on the continent. Everyone who remembers that is dying. The EU is a globalization project in an era where globalization is on the decline. It was held together by US warships and will fall apart as they recede, a vacuum filled by local, competing powers. Europe will not be immune to it, since it is after all composed of many cultures and many economies with competing aims. It’s not a matter of what people want, it’s a matter of economic realities that will impugn any high-minded desire for unity and collaboration.

godtoldmetodoit 6y ago

You might want to mention some sources in case people are interested in reading more on this theory. Namely: Peter Zeihan. I'm a fan of the guy - his logic and rough predictions certainly seem to be bearing fruit over the last decade. If he's right about the coming decade we are in for a bit of a bumpy ride.

websites222 6y ago
Agreed! I'm plagiarizing wholesale from Peter Zeihan, I'm not a geopolitical expert. I recently read Disunited Nations. His YouTube videos and podcasts are very interesting. Re: your comment about being in for a bumpy ride: I think his logic is solid in that the bumpy ride is only in relation to the unprecedented post-WWII/post-cold-war era. We know from history that the norm in the world is instability.

bluthru 6y ago

An economic system simply can't be based around population growth. We're already living unsustainably (with respect to carbon) and population growth works against that. Immigration to keep borrowing money is postponing the inevitable. Encouraging brain drain and people to flee their developing nations works against world stability, competition, prosperity, and quality of life.