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The actual conclusion is still however rather worrying: "Taken together this suggests that the projected global sea level rise by the end of this century in va

The actual conclusion is still however rather worrying: "Taken together this suggests that the projected global sea level rise by the end of this century in various IPCC reports is at best conservative and consequently underestimates the upper bound of what is referred to as the likely sea level rise by the end of this century."

coldtea 6y ago
The "by the end of this century" in these reports makes people not really care that much, for a few reasons... (a) Who can tell what can happen "by the end of this century"? That's too far in the future. (b) We have time, we can sort it out till then. (c) I'll be dead, and more likely than not my kids will be too, 80 years from now.
- roenxi 6y ago
  > (c) I'll be dead, and more likely than not my kids will be too, 80 years from now. This argument sounds sort of frivolous, but it is actually quite strong. If the climate was radically different 100 years ago, how many people would care, or even know?
  - DyslexicAtheist 6y ago
    it's only frivolous if we do not count people who are soon becoming grand parents or those who already are.
  - johnday 6y ago
    Human beings have a standard operating temperature, and the higher the temperature rises across the world, the more people will now be born into unliveable temperatures. We in Canada or the United Kingdom might not notice, but I'm pretty sure those in Texas or Nigeria will.
    - coldtea 6y ago
      >We in Canada or the United Kingdom might not notice, but I'm pretty sure those in Texas or Nigeria will Is Texas or Nigeria the warmest places people live atm though?
      - flukus 6y ago
        It's not the warmest places but the warm + humid places because evaporative cooling ceases to work. Lagos has a very high average humidity and temperature tot eh point where a few degrees more could make it unlivable, parts of Texas seem to be the same. - http://www.lagos.climatemps.com/humidity.php http://www.lagos.climatemps.com/humidity.php The wet bulb temperature is the thing to watch: > A sustained wet-bulb temperature exceeding 35 °C (95 °F) is likely to be fatal even to fit and healthy people, unclothed in the shade next to a fan; at this temperature our bodies switch from shedding heat to the environment, to gaining heat from it.[9] Thus 35 °C (95 °F) is the threshold beyond which the body is no longer able to adequately cool itself. A study by NOAA from 2013 concluded that heat stress will reduce labor capacity considerably under current emissions scenarios.[10] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature
    - exporectomy 6y ago
      The direct effect of temperature on people isn't a serious consequence of climate change. People thrive in places covering a huge temperature range. We have no trouble accepting the technology that we depend on to survive (houses, heating/cooling, clothing, etc.) just as people in 80 years will accept their slightly different temperature regulating technology.
    - brabel 6y ago
      The problem won't be with the warmest temperatures. People in places like the Middle East and Australia are used to boiling hot summers and a couple of degrees hotter will probably be just a little bit more uncomfortable... what will completely change the world is the range of diseases and insects changing drastically. Places like the Amazon and the African rainforests are currently very hard to live in because of tropical disease. These areas are bound to expand by quite a lot, perhaps reaching places like southern Europe and USA. This, together with the shift in agriculture and sea levels, is what will bring an amount of chaos to the world. Far north places like Scandinavia and Canada might actually benefit a little bit by being able to grow crops that they currently can't due to their harsh winters and cold nights all over the year! But their southern neighbours will surely suffer a lot, and that's where most of the population currently is.
  - StavrosK 6y ago
    It was, and I know. My grandparents used to tell me about 2-meter high snows every year, and we had 1-meter high snows when I was young. Now we're lucky if it snows at all each year.
  - bryanrasmussen 6y ago
    >This argument sounds sort of frivolous, but it is actually quite strong. if you have kids they will probably be dead if you don't have kids but are planning on having kids within <9 years your kids will probably be dead. If you don't have kids but are planning on having kids within 10-12 years your kids will probably not be dead (at current average life expectancy) but will probably be so old they are almost dead and their best years will have been behind them anyway. Perversely as climate change is supposed to decrease average life expectancy your kids will probably be dead anyway. If you are planning on having kids in 12-20+ years they will probably not be dead then. If you have kids within 1-20 years and they have kids your grandkids are going to be dealing this somewhere between their teens to their middle age, depending on how soon you have your kids and how soon they have their kids but going by current demographics, probably middle age if you have a kid now and probably teens or younger if you have one in 20 years. on edit: I do not find the argument particularly strong unless one is not good at simple math, or one does not care about grandkids.
    - orwin 6y ago
      I don't understand why people are focused on rising sea levels. This is at best the 3rd most important consequences of global warming. In my list it is barely 5th, and the one whith the longer term. * Food insecurities will be the first challenge, as it will come first probably and will have impact on democracy and will transform food import-dependant countries in powderkegs. US and Europe will be spared by this (southern Spain and Italy not so much, but still). Syria and Liban will be crushed. * Wet-bulb temperature will become the second challenge by 2080, and 2060 if nothing is done by 2040. When Florida, South carolina and south cali will be hit by this, people might start consider moving, or living underground more than half the year. Europe will be spared by this as most projection say the Gulf stream will likely still work until the north pole ice melt, so 2150-2200. * As the troposphere warms up and the stratosphere cool down, we will witness harsh meteorological events that will strain infrastructure all around the world. * Ectothermics species will work at an higher level, their metabolism will be boosted and we will see pests working harder (and at higher latitudes). While endothermic species will disappear quietly. Same thing with mushrooms (that will worsen the 1st issue) * Yes, sea levels will rise. It proably wont have any impact until 2080 for island nations (unless is contaminate their fresh water reserves).

coldtea 6y ago

The "by the end of this century" in these reports makes people not really care that much, for a few reasons... (a) Who can tell what can happen "by the end of this century"? That's too far in the future. (b) We have time, we can sort it out till then. (c) I'll be dead, and more likely than not my kids will be too, 80 years from now.

roenxi 6y ago
> (c) I'll be dead, and more likely than not my kids will be too, 80 years from now. This argument sounds sort of frivolous, but it is actually quite strong. If the climate was radically different 100 years ago, how many people would care, or even know?
- DyslexicAtheist 6y ago
  it's only frivolous if we do not count people who are soon becoming grand parents or those who already are.
- johnday 6y ago
  Human beings have a standard operating temperature, and the higher the temperature rises across the world, the more people will now be born into unliveable temperatures. We in Canada or the United Kingdom might not notice, but I'm pretty sure those in Texas or Nigeria will.
  - coldtea 6y ago
    >We in Canada or the United Kingdom might not notice, but I'm pretty sure those in Texas or Nigeria will Is Texas or Nigeria the warmest places people live atm though?
    - flukus 6y ago
      It's not the warmest places but the warm + humid places because evaporative cooling ceases to work. Lagos has a very high average humidity and temperature tot eh point where a few degrees more could make it unlivable, parts of Texas seem to be the same. - http://www.lagos.climatemps.com/humidity.php http://www.lagos.climatemps.com/humidity.php The wet bulb temperature is the thing to watch: > A sustained wet-bulb temperature exceeding 35 °C (95 °F) is likely to be fatal even to fit and healthy people, unclothed in the shade next to a fan; at this temperature our bodies switch from shedding heat to the environment, to gaining heat from it.[9] Thus 35 °C (95 °F) is the threshold beyond which the body is no longer able to adequately cool itself. A study by NOAA from 2013 concluded that heat stress will reduce labor capacity considerably under current emissions scenarios.[10] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature
  - exporectomy 6y ago
    The direct effect of temperature on people isn't a serious consequence of climate change. People thrive in places covering a huge temperature range. We have no trouble accepting the technology that we depend on to survive (houses, heating/cooling, clothing, etc.) just as people in 80 years will accept their slightly different temperature regulating technology.
  - brabel 6y ago
    The problem won't be with the warmest temperatures. People in places like the Middle East and Australia are used to boiling hot summers and a couple of degrees hotter will probably be just a little bit more uncomfortable... what will completely change the world is the range of diseases and insects changing drastically. Places like the Amazon and the African rainforests are currently very hard to live in because of tropical disease. These areas are bound to expand by quite a lot, perhaps reaching places like southern Europe and USA. This, together with the shift in agriculture and sea levels, is what will bring an amount of chaos to the world. Far north places like Scandinavia and Canada might actually benefit a little bit by being able to grow crops that they currently can't due to their harsh winters and cold nights all over the year! But their southern neighbours will surely suffer a lot, and that's where most of the population currently is.
- StavrosK 6y ago
  It was, and I know. My grandparents used to tell me about 2-meter high snows every year, and we had 1-meter high snows when I was young. Now we're lucky if it snows at all each year.
- bryanrasmussen 6y ago
  >This argument sounds sort of frivolous, but it is actually quite strong. if you have kids they will probably be dead if you don't have kids but are planning on having kids within <9 years your kids will probably be dead. If you don't have kids but are planning on having kids within 10-12 years your kids will probably not be dead (at current average life expectancy) but will probably be so old they are almost dead and their best years will have been behind them anyway. Perversely as climate change is supposed to decrease average life expectancy your kids will probably be dead anyway. If you are planning on having kids in 12-20+ years they will probably not be dead then. If you have kids within 1-20 years and they have kids your grandkids are going to be dealing this somewhere between their teens to their middle age, depending on how soon you have your kids and how soon they have their kids but going by current demographics, probably middle age if you have a kid now and probably teens or younger if you have one in 20 years. on edit: I do not find the argument particularly strong unless one is not good at simple math, or one does not care about grandkids.
  - orwin 6y ago
    I don't understand why people are focused on rising sea levels. This is at best the 3rd most important consequences of global warming. In my list it is barely 5th, and the one whith the longer term. * Food insecurities will be the first challenge, as it will come first probably and will have impact on democracy and will transform food import-dependant countries in powderkegs. US and Europe will be spared by this (southern Spain and Italy not so much, but still). Syria and Liban will be crushed. * Wet-bulb temperature will become the second challenge by 2080, and 2060 if nothing is done by 2040. When Florida, South carolina and south cali will be hit by this, people might start consider moving, or living underground more than half the year. Europe will be spared by this as most projection say the Gulf stream will likely still work until the north pole ice melt, so 2150-2200. * As the troposphere warms up and the stratosphere cool down, we will witness harsh meteorological events that will strain infrastructure all around the world. * Ectothermics species will work at an higher level, their metabolism will be boosted and we will see pests working harder (and at higher latitudes). While endothermic species will disappear quietly. Same thing with mushrooms (that will worsen the 1st issue) * Yes, sea levels will rise. It proably wont have any impact until 2080 for island nations (unless is contaminate their fresh water reserves).