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Strangely enough, though dividing total US deaths by the total US population gives a population death rate of 0.135%, and on a per-state basis 5 states are abov
by davidgay 6y ago
Strangely enough, though dividing total US deaths by the total US population gives a population death rate of 0.135%, and on a per-state basis 5 states are above 0.2%. That's a definite lower bound on the IFR and more-than-obvious evidence that neither 0.1%, or 0.01% are plausible IFRs.
- timr 6y ago> dividing total US deaths by the total US population gives a population death rate of 0.135%, and on a per-state basis 5 states are above 0.2%. That's a definite lower bound on the IFR and more-than-obvious evidence that neither 0.1%, or 0.01% are plausible IFRs. 0.01% is likely not a plausible IFR estimate for the entire US. 0.1% is consistent with your back-of-the-envelope calculation. Whether you know it or not, your calculation has error bars on it. Those error bars do not exclude 0.1%.