2 ms·
If you think "forecast was off by a factor of 5" (2.2M vs. 440k US; 500k vs. 100k UK) is "totally in line with what happened", there's probably not a lot for us
by timr 6y ago
If you think "forecast was off by a factor of 5" (2.2M vs. 440k US; 500k vs. 100k UK) is "totally in line with what happened", there's probably not a lot for us to talk about.
Gupta was saying that the Ferguson models were wrong. The models have...not been right. Objectively.
- dilyevsky 6y agoCan you read? “Do nothing” means do nothing. Us (and gb) clearly had done something (quite a lot actually) even when folks like yourself tried very hard to convince everyone not to
- timr 6y agoYes, I've read the entire paper, many times. Look at the predictions for the various intervention scenarios. They're not even close to reality (unless you count "+/- 80%" as "close to reality", I suppose...)