4 ms·

CFR != IFR. A huge portion of infections in the US are never reported or detected. I can't believe people are still confusing these. Dividing fatalities by kno

• mikeyouse 6y ago
  Just do the math though, 500k deaths (+ whatever number of deaths not reported as such) vs what proportion of cases are unreported.. 50%? 75%? Help me get to an IFR approaching 0.1%..
  • Gibbon1 6y ago
    Estimated cases in the US is 60 million. 500,000 deaths gives an IRF of 0.8%. Which is close to what the Chinese reported a year ago.
• davidgay 6y ago
  Strangely enough, though dividing total US deaths by the total US population gives a population death rate of 0.135%, and on a per-state basis 5 states are above 0.2%. That's a definite lower bound on the IFR and more-than-obvious evidence that neither 0.1%, or 0.01% are plausible IFRs.
  • timr 6y ago
    > dividing total US deaths by the total US population gives a population death rate of 0.135%, and on a per-state basis 5 states are above 0.2%. That's a definite lower bound on the IFR and more-than-obvious evidence that neither 0.1%, or 0.01% are plausible IFRs. 0.01% is likely not a plausible IFR estimate for the entire US. 0.1% is consistent with your back-of-the-envelope calculation. Whether you know it or not, your calculation has error bars on it. Those error bars do not exclude 0.1%.