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That piece of report doesn’t have us numbers. Gb looks totally in line with what had actually happened. 2.2M doesn’t sound unreasonable either since we are alre
by dilyevsky 6y ago
That piece of report doesn’t have us numbers. Gb looks totally in line with what had actually happened. 2.2M doesn’t sound unreasonable either since we are already almost at a quarter of that (assuming you even trust florida numbers). So she was wildly wrong, more so than other researchers, still clearly wrong but doubled down. So what’s your point exactly?
- timr 6y agoIf you think "forecast was off by a factor of 5" (2.2M vs. 440k US; 500k vs. 100k UK) is "totally in line with what happened", there's probably not a lot for us to talk about. Gupta was saying that the Ferguson models were wrong. The models have...not been right. Objectively.
- dilyevsky 6y agoCan you read? “Do nothing” means do nothing. Us (and gb) clearly had done something (quite a lot actually) even when folks like yourself tried very hard to convince everyone not to
- timr 6y agoYes, I've read the entire paper, many times. Look at the predictions for the various intervention scenarios. They're not even close to reality (unless you count "+/- 80%" as "close to reality", I suppose...)