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The problem with the broad trend prediction format is you wind-up with binaries and predicting a 1 or a 0 is easy. Economy - "Good or bad" Environment - "Good
by joe_the_user 6y ago
The problem with the broad trend prediction format is you wind-up with binaries and predicting a 1 or a 0 is easy.
Economy - "Good or bad"
Environment - "Good or bad"
Wealth distribution - "Good or bad".
If you're betting, someone has to get 2 or more out of 3. But that could be anyone, including complete idiots. So this doesn't by itself tell you anything.
Most of the "bad" would be vaguely "left" positions but they could vary from the left of the NYT to any number of extreme positions as well as including general pessimists.
So at this level, "could be anything".
- A12-B 6y agoThe environment getting worse is a matter of fact, not ideology. You can argue in bad faith about the meaning of the word 'worse' if you want, trying to claim it's too subjective, but I think we all have roughly the same idea of 'worse' and know that that's what the environment is getting.