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As a citizen of New Zealand I believe a short, sharp lock-down combined with test & contact trace is the only route to zero. I think that this option is far fa

As a citizen of New Zealand I believe a short, sharp lock-down combined with test & contact trace is the only route to zero. I think that this option is far far better than being in "half measures" restrictions for very long periods of time. When a country announces their lock-down measures I feel excited for their populace that they might finally be heading to zero. Then I read the holes in the measures: - Resturants open, even if only for takeout. - People mixing bubbles with friends - Working from an office when WFH is possible - Anything beyond food, health and utilities being considered "essential" and allowed - Lack of financial support so it is not financially feasible to take public health measures (stay home, feed family, get tested, get healthcare). I can't wait for other countries to simply copy the New Zealand quarantine rules and institute an Alert level 4 lockdown, not some half-hearted level 3 / 2 ripoff. Ask for level 4: https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/resources/tables/COVID-19-alert-levels-summary.pdf https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/resources/tables/COVID-19-ale... When all the citizens are in this together, when they all see the shared sacrifice and they have the means to actually take a lock-down together ... it's a huge weight off. It would only take 6 weeks of true level 4 to transform the infection rate of any nation - the virus dies out if it cannot spread.

rich_sasha 6y ago
In Europe, the conclusion was that you simply cannot do that, physically. It is so integrated, even for essentials such as food or medication, that you have a huge area, requiring delivery/lorry drivers whizzing around, medical staff in hospitals and care homes, etc. Short sharp shock just can’t happen. So then, if you’re stuck in shades of gray, you have to weigh the antiviral benefits of the lockdown with just keeping the lights out. That’s a tough one to balance. Kudos to New Zealand, I’m just not sure it’s a blueprint others can replicate.
- gridspy 6y ago
  Lorry drivers should only live in one city. Anywhere else, they need to "self isolate" - contact-less reception of food, hand-off of documents etc. On return home, they need to assume they became infected en-route and use PPE suitable for that reality. Medical staff already know how to avoid taking disease home. They just need the funding and support to access the right PPE, facilites and reasonable hours. If they are in transit, the need a good reason and well thought out measures. Quarantines don't need to stop all people, just those who are likely to spread the disease.
  - rob74 6y ago
    In Europe, the sad truth is that lorry drivers don't really "live" anywhere, except in the cabs of their trucks. Maybe they get a few weeks of home vacation per year, but other than that, they're permanently on the road. More generally, these rules are all nice and well, but unless you are you going to give every person his or her own policeman to make sure that they follow them, people will keep stretching, bending and breaking the rules - of course, some (maybe even most?) behave responsibly, but the virus only needs a few who don't...
- gls2ro 6y ago
  Maybe now is a good time to see EU as one unit and have strategies at EU levels: i.e the same lockdown for all EU. Of course this is not working under the current way of how EU works, but I think this is the only pragmatic solution as response to such crisis.
  - __blockcipher__ 6y ago
    You’re one step away from just advocating for a global world government. Massive centralized control never ends well. You’re close to the insight here though: there is a pragmatic solution, and it’s to stop waging war against an endemic respiratory virus of zoonotic origin. It’s like struggling in quicksand; trying to escape just makes it worse. That’s real pragmatism.
icelancer 6y ago
>> I can't wait for other countries to simply copy the New Zealand quarantine rules When the United States of America can relocate to an island and near-permanently ban travel into the country like NZ has, we'll do that, I guess. EDIT: Ah yes, HN the libertarian paradise unless it's about COVID, then the recommendations are non-practical authoritarian measures and citing island nation success and hurling downvotes. Keep them coming.
- mkl 6y ago
  It's possible to close borders without being on an island. I (in NZ) don't think the the island factor is essential. The USA has more active military personnel than almost any other country, enough to make closing borders pretty easy compared with many other places.
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    It's not clear that it is possible. The obvious point of comparison is China, which has continually had to fight off new waves of infections despite strong lockdowns and strong border restrictions. (A lockdown started just 2 weeks ago covering about as many people as the total population of Australia.)
    - andylynch 6y ago
      They do seem to be doing ok with it. Their lockdowns and done properly and actually work. ( speaking from the UK where arrivals still quarantine on the honour system and govt offices are hot spots despite being declared ‘COVID safe’)
      - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
        I'm not saying they're doing badly, just that they've been unable to fully close their borders to the virus despite being equally committed to doing so.
  - icelancer 6y ago
mkl 6y ago
Yes, the holes in the "lockdowns" elsewhere are kind of unbelievable. If the lockdown is hard enough, and the financial support is there for those who need it, then it can be short and effective.
- gridspy 6y ago
  Indeed. And then the "consumers" are free to head straight back out to enjoy society and participate in the economy again once it's safe. It isn't a choice of Health vs Economy, it's Health for Economy
  - mkl 6y ago
    Yep. Life in NZ has been almost completely normal for ~10 of the last 12 months (one hard ~6 week lockdown, one short mostly-region-specific one followed by a couple of weeks of mask-wearing).
saiya-jin 6y ago
New Zealand had it very easy with its geography. Same for other relatively small islands. Place like EU with its own national, often competing goals can't be effectively 100% locked out. That's what happens when you have a federation with strong independent parts. Not that I disagree with your points, they should be the baseline for any serious covid response. Lockdown measures have so far always been watered down by politicians due to pressures from business. Business is this time acting staggeringly idiotically, prolonging the situation due to fear of complete shutdown. At the end, they get hurt much more. Some local info - Swiss are faring quite well, while not having that many things closed, ie ski resorts work (since its outdoor activity). Not restricting traveling within country. France on the other hand is going again mental (liberté has long abandoned the place of revolution, but that's happen when you go extreme left in real world). Closing many basic things, but ie annual sales in shopping centres were going very strong till today. I mean how fucking stupid you can be, close outdoor business giving salaries to significant part of population, and on the other side allowing large indoor gatherings of people so they can buy cheap clothes and stores can clean their stock. Even now they only close those > 20,000m2 surface. Outdoor activities also keep many people sane and in good health, which at this point is becoming significant negative side effect of this whole situation. Most people I know, including myself, the fitness level declined in last year. That is tightly coupled with mental health. At least spring will fix things up a bit (looking forward to run in the park again, more sun, less rain).
- andylynch 6y ago
  The geography in NZ is I think a secondary factor. Due to its isolation and reliance on agriculture, NZ has always had a very strong bio security policy and the systems in place to effect it. (Try bringing in a apple, pot of honey or muddy shoes. Actually don’t!). So when they had to make the call, they weren’t exactly starting from scratch. In addition, virtually everyone got behind the lockdown and made it work together- this is nothing to do with geography and all to do with good leadership, and a strong society.
  - gridspy 6y ago
    Finally, there was a solid "all of government" pandemic plan. Although it got tidied up and dressed up a bit for the public, the basic structure was already in place (in 2017) well before Covid-19 occurred. This ensured that the right people had the right terminology when a nationwide mobilization was required. https://www.health.govt.nz/your-health/healthy-living/emergency-management/pandemic-planning-and-response/influenza-pandemic-plan https://www.health.govt.nz/your-health/healthy-living/emerge...
rob74 6y ago
Kudos to New Zealand, but I'll restate the obvious here: for this strategy it really helps if you're an island - not only with the initial implementation of the strategy, but also with staying virus-free once you reach that state. Because in NZ everyone who enters the country is registered and can be forced to follow the quarantine rules. By contrast, in the EU, we have land borders without border checks. Sure, people returning from another country should get a test and quarantine if it's positive - but does anyone know who travelled where and is required to get a test? No... A small anecdotal example of why this complicates fighting the pandemic: during the first wave, eastern Germany got off relatively easy, with few cases. Czechia was even better, because they locked their borders and hardly had any cases initially. Then, during the summer/early autumn, Germany had the usual rules with masks, distancing, no large gatherings etc., while Czechia had much laxer/less-enforced rules. So guys from Germany would throw their bachelor party in Czechia, get infected and then infect everyone at their wedding a few days later. Which led not only to Czechia having a catastrophic number of cases in October, but also to eastern Germany (particularly Saxony) being hardest hit in the second wave.
- lostmsu 6y ago
  Should not be much of a problem in US with only 2 land borders.
  - laverya 6y ago
    Because the US has had so much success securing its southern border, and because taking the necessary actions to truly close it wouldn't be a total political shitstorm.
    - maxerickson 6y ago
      If we actually did contact tracing, illegal crossings of infected people would be easy enough to deal with. Infections in the US are not being driven by sick people coming in from Mexico.
      - 6y ago

rich_sasha 6y ago

In Europe, the conclusion was that you simply cannot do that, physically. It is so integrated, even for essentials such as food or medication, that you have a huge area, requiring delivery/lorry drivers whizzing around, medical staff in hospitals and care homes, etc. Short sharp shock just can’t happen. So then, if you’re stuck in shades of gray, you have to weigh the antiviral benefits of the lockdown with just keeping the lights out. That’s a tough one to balance. Kudos to New Zealand, I’m just not sure it’s a blueprint others can replicate.

gridspy 6y ago
Lorry drivers should only live in one city. Anywhere else, they need to "self isolate" - contact-less reception of food, hand-off of documents etc. On return home, they need to assume they became infected en-route and use PPE suitable for that reality. Medical staff already know how to avoid taking disease home. They just need the funding and support to access the right PPE, facilites and reasonable hours. If they are in transit, the need a good reason and well thought out measures. Quarantines don't need to stop all people, just those who are likely to spread the disease.
- rob74 6y ago
  In Europe, the sad truth is that lorry drivers don't really "live" anywhere, except in the cabs of their trucks. Maybe they get a few weeks of home vacation per year, but other than that, they're permanently on the road. More generally, these rules are all nice and well, but unless you are you going to give every person his or her own policeman to make sure that they follow them, people will keep stretching, bending and breaking the rules - of course, some (maybe even most?) behave responsibly, but the virus only needs a few who don't...
gls2ro 6y ago
Maybe now is a good time to see EU as one unit and have strategies at EU levels: i.e the same lockdown for all EU. Of course this is not working under the current way of how EU works, but I think this is the only pragmatic solution as response to such crisis.
- __blockcipher__ 6y ago
  You’re one step away from just advocating for a global world government. Massive centralized control never ends well. You’re close to the insight here though: there is a pragmatic solution, and it’s to stop waging war against an endemic respiratory virus of zoonotic origin. It’s like struggling in quicksand; trying to escape just makes it worse. That’s real pragmatism.

icelancer 6y ago

>> I can't wait for other countries to simply copy the New Zealand quarantine rules When the United States of America can relocate to an island and near-permanently ban travel into the country like NZ has, we'll do that, I guess. EDIT: Ah yes, HN the libertarian paradise unless it's about COVID, then the recommendations are non-practical authoritarian measures and citing island nation success and hurling downvotes. Keep them coming.

mkl 6y ago
It's possible to close borders without being on an island. I (in NZ) don't think the the island factor is essential. The USA has more active military personnel than almost any other country, enough to make closing borders pretty easy compared with many other places.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  It's not clear that it is possible. The obvious point of comparison is China, which has continually had to fight off new waves of infections despite strong lockdowns and strong border restrictions. (A lockdown started just 2 weeks ago covering about as many people as the total population of Australia.)
  - andylynch 6y ago
    They do seem to be doing ok with it. Their lockdowns and done properly and actually work. ( speaking from the UK where arrivals still quarantine on the honour system and govt offices are hot spots despite being declared ‘COVID safe’)
    - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
      I'm not saying they're doing badly, just that they've been unable to fully close their borders to the virus despite being equally committed to doing so.
- icelancer 6y ago

mkl 6y ago

Yes, the holes in the "lockdowns" elsewhere are kind of unbelievable. If the lockdown is hard enough, and the financial support is there for those who need it, then it can be short and effective.

gridspy 6y ago
Indeed. And then the "consumers" are free to head straight back out to enjoy society and participate in the economy again once it's safe. It isn't a choice of Health vs Economy, it's Health for Economy
- mkl 6y ago
  Yep. Life in NZ has been almost completely normal for ~10 of the last 12 months (one hard ~6 week lockdown, one short mostly-region-specific one followed by a couple of weeks of mask-wearing).

saiya-jin 6y ago

New Zealand had it very easy with its geography. Same for other relatively small islands. Place like EU with its own national, often competing goals can't be effectively 100% locked out. That's what happens when you have a federation with strong independent parts. Not that I disagree with your points, they should be the baseline for any serious covid response. Lockdown measures have so far always been watered down by politicians due to pressures from business. Business is this time acting staggeringly idiotically, prolonging the situation due to fear of complete shutdown. At the end, they get hurt much more. Some local info - Swiss are faring quite well, while not having that many things closed, ie ski resorts work (since its outdoor activity). Not restricting traveling within country. France on the other hand is going again mental (liberté has long abandoned the place of revolution, but that's happen when you go extreme left in real world). Closing many basic things, but ie annual sales in shopping centres were going very strong till today. I mean how fucking stupid you can be, close outdoor business giving salaries to significant part of population, and on the other side allowing large indoor gatherings of people so they can buy cheap clothes and stores can clean their stock. Even now they only close those > 20,000m2 surface. Outdoor activities also keep many people sane and in good health, which at this point is becoming significant negative side effect of this whole situation. Most people I know, including myself, the fitness level declined in last year. That is tightly coupled with mental health. At least spring will fix things up a bit (looking forward to run in the park again, more sun, less rain).

andylynch 6y ago
The geography in NZ is I think a secondary factor. Due to its isolation and reliance on agriculture, NZ has always had a very strong bio security policy and the systems in place to effect it. (Try bringing in a apple, pot of honey or muddy shoes. Actually don’t!). So when they had to make the call, they weren’t exactly starting from scratch. In addition, virtually everyone got behind the lockdown and made it work together- this is nothing to do with geography and all to do with good leadership, and a strong society.
- gridspy 6y ago
  Finally, there was a solid "all of government" pandemic plan. Although it got tidied up and dressed up a bit for the public, the basic structure was already in place (in 2017) well before Covid-19 occurred. This ensured that the right people had the right terminology when a nationwide mobilization was required. https://www.health.govt.nz/your-health/healthy-living/emergency-management/pandemic-planning-and-response/influenza-pandemic-plan https://www.health.govt.nz/your-health/healthy-living/emerge...

rob74 6y ago

Kudos to New Zealand, but I'll restate the obvious here: for this strategy it really helps if you're an island - not only with the initial implementation of the strategy, but also with staying virus-free once you reach that state. Because in NZ everyone who enters the country is registered and can be forced to follow the quarantine rules. By contrast, in the EU, we have land borders without border checks. Sure, people returning from another country should get a test and quarantine if it's positive - but does anyone know who travelled where and is required to get a test? No... A small anecdotal example of why this complicates fighting the pandemic: during the first wave, eastern Germany got off relatively easy, with few cases. Czechia was even better, because they locked their borders and hardly had any cases initially. Then, during the summer/early autumn, Germany had the usual rules with masks, distancing, no large gatherings etc., while Czechia had much laxer/less-enforced rules. So guys from Germany would throw their bachelor party in Czechia, get infected and then infect everyone at their wedding a few days later. Which led not only to Czechia having a catastrophic number of cases in October, but also to eastern Germany (particularly Saxony) being hardest hit in the second wave.

lostmsu 6y ago
Should not be much of a problem in US with only 2 land borders.
- laverya 6y ago
  Because the US has had so much success securing its southern border, and because taking the necessary actions to truly close it wouldn't be a total political shitstorm.
  - maxerickson 6y ago
    If we actually did contact tracing, illegal crossings of infected people would be easy enough to deal with. Infections in the US are not being driven by sick people coming in from Mexico.
    - 6y ago