4 ms·

None of the variants so far are any more lethal than the original. Isn't that right? I have heard nothing to the contrary, although this guy seems to think it's

None of the variants so far are any more lethal than the original. Isn't that right? I have heard nothing to the contrary, although this guy seems to think it's already happened.

EdwardDiego 6y ago
You miss the point - a virus with a 1% death rate of those infected, that mutates into a virus 50% more transmissible, with a 1% death rate of those infected, is obviously likely to kill more people.
- jansan 6y ago
  If I look a the infection numbers of South Africa and UK, I completely fail to see how there variants are more infectious. Also, in Brazil, where life seems to go on as usual, there is no exponential growth of cases. Do you have any numbers that prove that the new strains are actually spreading faster in society?
  - res0nat0r 6y ago
    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/25/fauci-uk-coronavirus-462117 https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/25/fauci-uk-coronaviru... The UK variant which will be the dominant strain in the USA in a couple months is more deadly, and I believe the same is true for the South Africa version. Both more infectious, and both more lethal.
    - jansan 6y ago
      >The UK variant which will be the dominant strain in the USA in a couple months is more deadly, That's not what is in the article. It says "“there is a realistic possibility that infection with” the country’s dominant Covid-19 variant “is associated with an increased risk of death compared to infection with” other strains of the coronavirus." What they are saying is basically "we do not know".
  - T-A 6y ago
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
- herewegoagain2 6y ago
  No that is not obvious at all. It doesn't depend on the transmission rate, just on how many people get infected. Higher transmission rate just means it spreads faster, not that it infects more people in the end.
x86_64Ubuntu 6y ago
Transmissibility is a key component to the death rate. People who don't get infected don't die from it, but as more and more people catch it, more roll the dice.
sitkack 6y ago
The article explains this. Think of it as an MLM scam or compound interest. The lethality rate just gives you a scalar increase on all the events that would have occurred. Lethality can go to infinity for all we care if transmission goes to zero. But even at low fatality rates, if everyone on earth gets it, that is a huge number of dead. Think of two kinds of fires burning at different levels of a forest. The lethality could even go down, transmission rates could go up and still kill more people.

None of the variants so far are any more lethal than the original. Isn't that right? I have heard nothing to the contrary, although this guy seems to think it's already happened.

EdwardDiego 6y ago

You miss the point - a virus with a 1% death rate of those infected, that mutates into a virus 50% more transmissible, with a 1% death rate of those infected, is obviously likely to kill more people.

jansan 6y ago
If I look a the infection numbers of South Africa and UK, I completely fail to see how there variants are more infectious. Also, in Brazil, where life seems to go on as usual, there is no exponential growth of cases. Do you have any numbers that prove that the new strains are actually spreading faster in society?
- res0nat0r 6y ago
  https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/25/fauci-uk-coronavirus-462117 https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/25/fauci-uk-coronaviru... The UK variant which will be the dominant strain in the USA in a couple months is more deadly, and I believe the same is true for the South Africa version. Both more infectious, and both more lethal.
  - jansan 6y ago
    >The UK variant which will be the dominant strain in the USA in a couple months is more deadly, That's not what is in the article. It says "“there is a realistic possibility that infection with” the country’s dominant Covid-19 variant “is associated with an increased risk of death compared to infection with” other strains of the coronavirus." What they are saying is basically "we do not know".
- T-A 6y ago
  https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
herewegoagain2 6y ago
No that is not obvious at all. It doesn't depend on the transmission rate, just on how many people get infected. Higher transmission rate just means it spreads faster, not that it infects more people in the end.

x86_64Ubuntu 6y ago

Transmissibility is a key component to the death rate. People who don't get infected don't die from it, but as more and more people catch it, more roll the dice.

sitkack 6y ago

The article explains this. Think of it as an MLM scam or compound interest. The lethality rate just gives you a scalar increase on all the events that would have occurred. Lethality can go to infinity for all we care if transmission goes to zero. But even at low fatality rates, if everyone on earth gets it, that is a huge number of dead. Think of two kinds of fires burning at different levels of a forest. The lethality could even go down, transmission rates could go up and still kill more people.