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The efficient market hypothesis - that over the long term prices will reflect what something is actually worth - is the core underpinning assumption of pretty m
by jjk166 6y ago
The efficient market hypothesis - that over the long term prices will reflect what something is actually worth - is the core underpinning assumption of pretty much all finance.
- ummonk 6y agoYes and those people have been predicting TSLA's decline for several years now. How long term is the "long term"?
- imtringued 6y agoI have heard that Tesla is a self fullfiling prophecy. Elon Musk has an infinite amount of crazy ideas that he is willing to try out. The fact that TSLA is going up allows him to dabble with all of them. Most of them don't pan out. However, there is a decent chance that at least one of his ideas works out and actually ends up justifying the value of the stock.
- ummonk 6y agoYeah it’s almost a VC firm at this point. You’re not investing in the discounted future cash flows of Tesla absent influx of capital, rather you’re investing in the ROI you think Tesla can generate using money from equity raises.
- Ekaros 6y agoDecades? Next actual long term recession? Hard to say, how long did housing market keep going up?
- jjk166 6y agoTesla is a leader in several emerging markets like electric vehicles, large scale battery production, and autonomous vehicles. While it's price seems high to me, it is perfectly reasonable to think other people legitimately value it that highly. Gamestop, on the other hand, is a brick and mortar retailer of essentially digital goods in the midst of a global pandemic. This week I was genuinely surprised to hear it still existed. No sane person does nor should see Gamestop as having a strong future outlook. People bought with the express purpose of market manipulation, and when they lose interest the stock will cease to be manipulated.
- CodeArtisan 6y agoTesla shorters lost 38 billions of dollars last year on that hypothesis. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-short-sellers-lost-billions-rally-elon-musk-tsla-2021-1-1029928298 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-...
- dnautics 6y agoThe crazy thing is that the connection between the worth of a company and its market performance is so tenuous that the emh shouldn't make sense in the stock market. The only connections are: if a company does a buyback if it's share price gets low and can afford it off of existing revenue, if a company needs to raise cash and does a dilutatory raise, if the company exits the market via merger, acquisition, or bankruptcy, or if it's a dividend stock. All of these events are relatively rare.