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A lot of hyperbolic reporting but there’s a ton of off-peak excess overnight electricity capacity. This is also when you will tend to be charging because you a
by steveBK123 6y ago
A lot of hyperbolic reporting but there’s a ton of off-peak excess overnight electricity capacity. This is also when you will tend to be charging because you are home and done driving for the day.
Many utilities already offer off peak rates generally. My utility offers incentives to install an EV charger which is networked and then gives you a rebate for charging overnight after 11pm. My EV charging is barely 30% of my wintertime electric use, driving 500-800 mi/month. This is in a home with oil heat. In summertime using AC in the home, my EV usage will shrink as a percent of usage.
Current solar prices keep dropping and incentives are pretty big there as well, so if you are a big EV driver you could put up some solar with a pretty quick break even of ~4 years or so. Finance it correctly and you won’t have any increase in your monthly outlays.
Biggest barrier right now is simply EV cost. I love my car but EVs are still only barely price competitive after incentives/gas savings if you are a small/midsize sedan shopper.
If you need something larger like a CUV/SUV/Van/Truck, EVs are only price competitive with a luxury brand/vehicle in the class.
- notsureaboutpg 6y agoBut off-peak usage hours will change as more and more people get cars that they charge overnight.
- thatfrenchguy 6y agoThere is ton of overnight capacity but it’s mostly non renewables right now, which drives up your CO2 emitted per mile. We really need, in California at least, to ramp up workplace charging, otherwise we’re going to have a lot of unused solar :-/.
- ben_w 6y agoWhile true, the plus side is EVs are still a net CO2 win even when charged by dirty fuel. As part of the same topic, I think we’re going to see PV-covered EV cars in the not too distant future; not because they don’t need charging (they’re about 10% of your instant needs on the move), but because adding PV reduces the pressure on the grid, and will significantly reduce the need to install power lines to sunlit car parks. Home, multi-storey, and hotel/motel parking will still almost certainly still need power.
- JulianMorrison 6y agoYou're also unlikely to pick up any useful charge anywhere more northerly or where the weather tends to overcast.
- ben_w 6y agoMy baseline is the U.K., which is further north than any of the contiguous USA and frequently overcast.
- rapsey 6y ago> While true, the plus side is EVs are still a net CO2 win even when charged by dirty fuel. Are they? Does that include the manufacturing process?
- zaroth 6y agoYes it does. Payback takes a few years depending on the CO2 intensity of the electrical supply, but you do get there even with some coal in the mix. Here is a quite comprehensive analysis: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0488-7.epdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0488-7.epdf Edit: you might have better luck with this link; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0488-7.epdf?referrer_access_token=TPO4EjeSKKekNKMyogr2RNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OMBHrNGD6k2npei17x4aWWLctOfIoyfalbH9WNy5EPZCOSWTbm4pfMxuvEuQUnMLszjDPeoVkBlbvKQ2-fEFv3zieSCy-tF3BHi5vbyD3jSnmeEJUBuX-CQG-8gTJdac58sREr6vVjR8UB6iaNQk3HPtlkyjQ_CrjzXvQfqj92Q-LV4hr83vGLMn59vx0SgB-LY8BnZpm4eNzpOVu1YUj-L6h5Nuin9CAfr8Z9PAnatl12HtFSH8xmBvS8ZVRHcwj02-3Co4zD4iHvLosMxgjW&tracking_referrer=www.theguardian.com https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0488-7.epdf?refer...
- im3w1l 6y agoI don't have access to that article but does it take into account the notion of marginal power? That any increased load is going to be disproportionally dirty?
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- steveBK123 6y agoI’m not sure that’s entirely true because you are only thinking of solar. I’d like to see daytime vs overnight generation source breakdown. Remember that hydro power doesn’t care about time of day and wind is often able to generate more overnight than during the day. Further time of use rates can be tweaked as usage & generation requires. Maybe with a lot of EVs in the future & solar installed we encourage people to charge mid-day at work or sunrise->commute start & commute end->sundown, this doesn’t work great in winter but also electric use is lower in winter so maybe it nets out.
- skolos 6y agoNot everywhere. In Texas most extra renewable capacity is actually at night since at night wind is stronger.
- selectodude 6y agoIn states like Illinois with a high percentage of base load coming from nuclear and wind, charging overnight is basically free. In fact, overnight, Illinois is a net exporter of electricity.
- njarboe 6y agoToo bad California is shutting down its last nuclear power station in 2025 (which provides 10% of California's electricity) because upgrading its cooling system to meet new ocean water temperature regulations would cost on the order of $10 billion dollars.
- Noos 6y agoThis assumes you only charge at home because you can, and only work first shift. A lot of people may wind up charging at work because that's the only place that could really make charging points accessible with no worries. At least 5% of people work third or swingshifts too, so thats a load that has to be compensated for. You also need to worry about fleet vehicles charging, and other uses. So the off-peak capacity isn't always possible.
- JulianMorrison 6y agoUnless work or whatever has battery storage, which they might well if they already installed a line of charging points.
- Noos 6y agoNot sure work would go that far, to be honest. I figure just the increased load and charging ports would be all you could expect them to do.
- JulianMorrison 6y agoDepends how many wires they have but it's quite possible that "add a battery pack that charges when electricity is cheap" is cheaper than "pay for everyone to charge at peak rates".
- smileysteve 6y agoThe average commute in the U.S. is 32 miles a day, pre pandemic. Which means that the load is distributed not only in 24 hours, but every 72 hours for even lower capacity batteries like the leaf.
- ntsplnkv2 6y agoThis is where the stats people taking over is bad for society. Yea that's their commute - what about soccer practice, the gym, the store, visiting grandma, etc. It's unrealistic to say "welp 32 a day we're good."
- UncleOxidant 6y ago> but EVs are still only barely price competitive after incentives/gas savings if you are a small/midsize sedan shopper. Is this true if you also consider maintenance? EVs require much less maintenance - no oil changes, filters, no cooling system, no fuel system and associated pumps. Much less time wasted to service those things. Sure, the costs are higher up-front for an EV but cost of ownership over the lifetime of the vehicle are much lower.
- Hamuko 6y ago>so no waiting in line for 45 minutes every two years either Pretty fucked up that you only check for air pollution and not actual road-worthiness. Here all Teslas had an inspection failure rate after of 10.8% (61,000 km driven on average) in 2019 after three years of driving, which is quite bad. For comparison, Mercedes-Benz E-Class and BMW 5-series both had 7.1% (108,000 km and 91,000 km driven on average). This suggests to me that Tesla owners should really spend more time queuing at the shop and at an inspection center.
- throwawayboise 6y agoWell Tesla owners are told that their cars need zero maintenance so why would they even think about having them inspected routinely?
- cptskippy 6y agoNo they're not. There's a very clear 2 year maintenance cycle.
- throwaway0a5e 6y agoThey're told their cars need zero maintenance in the same way that Toyota owners who get their information from the internet think their cars have magically been engineered to defy the laws of physics. Sure the fine print in the manual says there's a service schedule, but the pop culture trope says otherwise.
- Rebelgecko 6y agoSolar is great but it doesn't work at night. At least here in California it seems like the toughest times for the grid currently are around 7-9pm when they do the solar to fossil fuel transition (wind can be sporadic). I imagine that'll coincide with when a lot of cars are charging so hopefully we're able to step up our energy storage capacity
- seanmcdirmid 6y agoNuclear is pretty constant (hard to stop and start like coal), if it is part of the mix then EVs can soak up output at night. I live in the PNW, hydro is fairly flexible so we don’t get off peak discounts. California uses a lot of hydro also, I suspect they are using more of that rather than coal to fill in the gaps between solar
- njarboe 6y agoCalifornia is shutting down its last nuclear plant in 2025 due to new cooling water regulations.
- Rebelgecko 6y agoNatural gas is the preferred fossil fuel here. It spins up faster than coal, and as a result California has had to delay the decommissioning of nat gas plants as nuclear ones have been shut down. Hydro is a pretty small part of our grid (real-time and historical data here: https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html)
- seanmcdirmid 6y agoHydro is almost as much as solar according to https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/2019-total-system-electric-generation/2018 https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/califo... when PNW imports are considered.
- aseerdbnarng 6y ago> A lot of hyperbolic reporting but there’s a ton of off-peak excess overnight electricity capacity. Looking at California's demand-profile it appears almost flat throughout the day (page 3 http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/CombiningRenew/HosteFinalDraft http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/Combi...). I dont see an obvious reaon why other cities would follow a different profile, so no I dont think that assumption is correct. The problem is indeed cost, but more the cost of storing the energy created by green renwables to be used when the wind isnt blowing or the sun isnt shining. If anything electricity will become much more expensive and become cheaper not overnight but instead when the weather is great. Indeed this is whats happening in Germany as a result of their energiewende program
- appleiigs 6y ago> I dont see an obvious reaon why other cities would follow a different profile, so no I dont think that assumption is correct A flat demand profile is definitely not normal. Do i really need to explain that the rest of the country doesn’t have same weather as California...
- aseerdbnarng 6y ago- California used as example due to high EV adoption - Here is a link containing the UK's daily load factor https://gridwatch.co.uk/ https://gridwatch.co.uk/ Its quite flat.
- Retric 6y agoThat’s a long way from a flat curve. 30GW to 50GW is a huge swing in demand.
- aseerdbnarng 6y agoThat was only in July and only due to the high AC required. Are you planning on recharging only 1 month of the year? How good are your batteries and where can i get them?
- usrusr 6y ago> This is also when you will tend to be charging because you are home and done driving for the day. In absence of demand-based pricing and clever "when will you need the car again?"-UI (both are necessary to see an effective load spread) all the cars from evening rush hour will meet again for evening rush hour 2, the grid edition, during supper and immediately after. At the time of nighttime overcapacity most will already be on sustain trickle.
- winter_blue 6y ago> off-peak excess overnight electricity capacity This will probably flip once solar becomes our largest (or among the largest) electrical energy source. I imagine a future where daytime power is primarily supplied by solar, and nighttime power by nuclear. And with wind, hydro, geothermal, etc. becoming ancillary energy sources.
- mcot2 6y agoThank you for this comment. The average commute is like 30 miles round trip (way less with covid and wfh). Modern EVs can get an effciency of around 250Wh/mi. This works out to about an additional 7.5kWh a day. This is roughly 25% of the average daily consumption of most households.
- ttymck 6y ago> because you are home and done driving for the day This is something I think about a lot, and it's also what prevented me from purchasing an EV recently -- I live in an apartment and park in a surface lot; street parking would be even less feasible for charging. My question is to anyone who may know the answer: is there any research/modeling being done regarding the intersection of declining home ownership and increased EV adoption/feasibility? Most of my peers can't afford a home but would prefer an electric vehicle. Workplace charging is often suggested as the answer, how does a shift to remote work change that? A lot of moving parts and I'm curious if someone more qualified than me has crunched the numbers.
- the8472 6y agoSome european cities have light post chargers. And there exist small parking meter sized chargers. You don't need supercharger wattage when you're charging while working or parking at home.
- ntsplnkv2 6y agoOr I can just use gas, and not have to worry about it.
- adrianN 6y agoOnly if you don't care about climate change.
- athms 6y agoIf you are really serious about reducing your carbon footprint, don't have children or pets.
- adrianN 6y agoNot having children or pets won't really change our carbon emissions in the next ten to fifteen years, which is the time frame that matters if we want to stay below 2°. And unless you want to reduce the human population to zero, it's not a sustainable path to net zero emissions.
- Guthur 6y agoMy only concern is that what happens with a mass adoption of both EV and intermittent power sources such as solar and wind. Solar will obviously not be there in the evening when everyone is plugging in their cars after the evening commute home. I don't have and stats to say either way but it is a scenario that i'd like said stats for :)
- myself248 6y agoThe obvious solution is to put the chargers at the office. With a solar carpark roof, the power only travels a few feet in the ideal case, and you might not even need to upgrade the electrical service drop.
- 542354234235 6y agoIn addition, any power not used to charge cars can go directly to power the business, that likely uses most of their energy during work hours anyway.
- gaoshan 6y agoOnce Evs like the ones Volkswagen is producing hit the US market things will change. The ID.4, for instance, will bring a compact SUV form (that is highly regarded) for barely over $30,000 (less than a tricked out Honda CR-V). That will be huge.
- Mauricebranagh 6y agoCapacity is only one aspect - the article is about the grid and distribution of the power to where its needed. And the historical selection of 110 V in the US doesn't help.
- adrianN 6y ago110V on a 15A breaker will provide you with something like 30kWh in 10h over night charging. That's 120 miles in a Model 3. Not many people average more than that in their daily driving.
- nswest23 6y ago> Many utilities already offer off peak rates generally. My utility offers incentives to install an EV charger which is networked and then gives you a rebate for charging overnight after 11pm. Where in the world are utilities offering this? I live in W. PA and every utility service out here laughed at me when I inquired about these kinds of things.
- canadianfella 6y agoWhat is “mi”?