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It's a daft idea that we would have been forced to sue for peace had we lost Hawaii. Japan certainly did not have the logistical capability to take and hold Ha

by wcarey 6y ago

It's a daft idea that we would have been forced to sue for peace had we lost Hawaii. Japan certainly did not have the logistical capability to take and hold Hawaii (Morison and Toll agree on this point) at any point in the war, so I'm suspicious of the argument that Midway was decisive. It represented one instance in a chain of many of Japan's fixation on the decisive battle. Guadalcanal, on the other hand, represents the American strategic fixation on continuous pressure and attrition. When the United States fought the battles Japan wanted to fight, we won (repeatedly; Midway, Philippine Sea, and Leyte). When Japan fought the battles the United States wanted to fight, they lost repeatedly. That suggests that none of the battles themselves were decisive, rather the strategic concepts of the respective nations. Anthony Tully does a nice job demonstrating how absolutely screwed the Japanese were whatever the outcome of Midway: http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm

georgeecollins 6y ago
You are right but with the benefit of hindsight. Japan hoped the USA would be like Russia in 1905, in that once it became clear that regaining a lost fleet would take years Russia lost the will to continue the war. The US was ready structurally and politically for a long war of attrition. At the time the Japanese did not know that the USSR would overcome Germany. An invasion of Midway, with US CVs sunk to boot, would give Japan at least another year of offensive operations. They could have used that time to threaten Australia, incite insurrection in India, secure ocean supply lines and train pilots. The US and the UK would have the means to resist and the US would certainly still have the means to overcome Japan eventually. But with all those challenges ahead-- in Europe and the Pacific-- maybe the US would negotiate.

by wcarey 6y ago

georgeecollins 6y ago

You are right but with the benefit of hindsight. Japan hoped the USA would be like Russia in 1905, in that once it became clear that regaining a lost fleet would take years Russia lost the will to continue the war. The US was ready structurally and politically for a long war of attrition. At the time the Japanese did not know that the USSR would overcome Germany. An invasion of Midway, with US CVs sunk to boot, would give Japan at least another year of offensive operations. They could have used that time to threaten Australia, incite insurrection in India, secure ocean supply lines and train pilots. The US and the UK would have the means to resist and the US would certainly still have the means to overcome Japan eventually. But with all those challenges ahead-- in Europe and the Pacific-- maybe the US would negotiate.