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I wonder if the Chinese vaccine with 50% efficiency could be used for herd immunity at all. Im not a virologyst, but the false safety of most people vaccinated

I wonder if the Chinese vaccine with 50% efficiency could be used for herd immunity at all. Im not a virologyst, but the false safety of most people vaccinated with it in a country might could trigger even more death? The Chinese vaccine is not even tested above 59 years old. If the young is vaccinated and start to party etc the new more infectious variants could still spread and can reach even more elderly.

ajross 6y ago
Sure it can. Vaccines are only one part of the puzzle. With 50% population immunity you need far (far) less natural immunity to reach an R number less than one, at which point outbreaks don't grow anymore. Obviously these magical mRNA vaccines with their 95% numbers are going to be more effective. But that's just a (very) happy scientific accident that they worked out. Historically vaccines haven't been anywhere near that effective and have still controlled disease. Hell, the flu shots we get are like 30% effective and they still save lives every year.
ateng 6y ago
Also note that even if the vaccine couldn’t prevent one from getting infected, it could still reduce the severity of the infection (thus saves lives). I’m _guessing_ a less severe infection could potentially reduce the rate of infection as well?
saddlerustle 6y ago
AFAIK there's two Chinese vaccines with published data: Sinovac and Sinopharm. Sinovac hasn't had great results but Sinophram has shown initial effectiveness numbers similar to AstraZeneca.
qwantim1 6y ago
> virologyst Is this an actual spelling in some dialect of English? It looks interesting. In medicine, when I see “gy” I’m thinking gynolocologist.
- framecowbird 6y ago
  Google Search Trends reports only tiny quantities of “virologyst” compared to “virologist”, and all from countries which are not English-native, so I’d classify it as a spelling mistake.
regularfry 6y ago
The problem is one of public confidence. 50% effectiveness would be very useful epidemiologically, but you'd still get a lot of pissed off infected people who thought they were safe. Conveying the message that we're going to stick a needle in your arm and it might not do you any good to a public that's already rife with scepticism about vaccines is a PR problem I'm very glad isn't mine to deal with.
beagle3 6y ago
It should be noted that this is likely nit worse than Pfizer, despite marketing. The 50% for Sinovac is real world data; the 95% for Pfizer comes from company phase 3 data. Well, last night a reputable Israeli HMO posted it’s real world data for Pfizer, and it’s 50% after 18 days and doesnt seem to get much better (but they don’t have enough data yet to know for sure). And now, although everyone claims Pfizer says you get 50% after 1st dose and 95# after second, if you read the actual filing, that’s not what it says; efficiency is achieved at day 13 by Pfizer data almost fully; and the reduction in severe disease (the only interesting endpoint) is 75% with confidence interval 0-100%
- Dzidas 6y ago
  "The data, which looked at more than 700,000 fully vaccinated people in Israel, found that only .04 percent of people contracted Covid-19, according to the head of Israel’s Ministry of Health, Dr. Sharon Alroy Preis at a press conference on Thursday. The type of vaccine Israel has mostly used is the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine with a small number of doses from Moderna. The two vaccines use the same technology, and in clinical trials were found to be about 95% effective. " https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-01-29-21/h_a52c58a8bb72bb98f7668ed869afb927 https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic... Can you share your datasource claiming that efficacy is only 50%?
  - beagle3 6y ago
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250612v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250612v... You’ll have to actually read it, or find a tldr from someone who knows what they are doing. The same calc that leads to 0.04% above would say overall covid mortality is 0.08% and is intentionally misleading - but no news media so far (in Israel or outside) has done any review. They are all parroting the misleading numbers. Anything but primary data these days is suspect. (Pfizer’s own primary data, btw, says severe disease is 75% RRR with CI 0-100%. Did you see anyone reporting on that?) Edit: to add: Israel is an a horrible bind right now. The vaccine is only 50% effective but gov has done very badly in handling the disease and promoted the vaccine as “our way out”, so the gov is attempting to hide that data. Unfortunately for them, Israel is too small and the culture not supportive of hiding this, even if at this point the mass media is cooperating with the government.

ajross 6y ago

Sure it can. Vaccines are only one part of the puzzle. With 50% population immunity you need far (far) less natural immunity to reach an R number less than one, at which point outbreaks don't grow anymore. Obviously these magical mRNA vaccines with their 95% numbers are going to be more effective. But that's just a (very) happy scientific accident that they worked out. Historically vaccines haven't been anywhere near that effective and have still controlled disease. Hell, the flu shots we get are like 30% effective and they still save lives every year.

ateng 6y ago

Also note that even if the vaccine couldn’t prevent one from getting infected, it could still reduce the severity of the infection (thus saves lives). I’m _guessing_ a less severe infection could potentially reduce the rate of infection as well?

saddlerustle 6y ago

AFAIK there's two Chinese vaccines with published data: Sinovac and Sinopharm. Sinovac hasn't had great results but Sinophram has shown initial effectiveness numbers similar to AstraZeneca.

qwantim1 6y ago

> virologyst Is this an actual spelling in some dialect of English? It looks interesting. In medicine, when I see “gy” I’m thinking gynolocologist.

framecowbird 6y ago
Google Search Trends reports only tiny quantities of “virologyst” compared to “virologist”, and all from countries which are not English-native, so I’d classify it as a spelling mistake.

regularfry 6y ago

The problem is one of public confidence. 50% effectiveness would be very useful epidemiologically, but you'd still get a lot of pissed off infected people who thought they were safe. Conveying the message that we're going to stick a needle in your arm and it might not do you any good to a public that's already rife with scepticism about vaccines is a PR problem I'm very glad isn't mine to deal with.

beagle3 6y ago

It should be noted that this is likely nit worse than Pfizer, despite marketing. The 50% for Sinovac is real world data; the 95% for Pfizer comes from company phase 3 data. Well, last night a reputable Israeli HMO posted it’s real world data for Pfizer, and it’s 50% after 18 days and doesnt seem to get much better (but they don’t have enough data yet to know for sure). And now, although everyone claims Pfizer says you get 50% after 1st dose and 95# after second, if you read the actual filing, that’s not what it says; efficiency is achieved at day 13 by Pfizer data almost fully; and the reduction in severe disease (the only interesting endpoint) is 75% with confidence interval 0-100%

Dzidas 6y ago
"The data, which looked at more than 700,000 fully vaccinated people in Israel, found that only .04 percent of people contracted Covid-19, according to the head of Israel’s Ministry of Health, Dr. Sharon Alroy Preis at a press conference on Thursday. The type of vaccine Israel has mostly used is the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine with a small number of doses from Moderna. The two vaccines use the same technology, and in clinical trials were found to be about 95% effective. " https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-01-29-21/h_a52c58a8bb72bb98f7668ed869afb927 https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic... Can you share your datasource claiming that efficacy is only 50%?
- beagle3 6y ago
  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250612v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250612v... You’ll have to actually read it, or find a tldr from someone who knows what they are doing. The same calc that leads to 0.04% above would say overall covid mortality is 0.08% and is intentionally misleading - but no news media so far (in Israel or outside) has done any review. They are all parroting the misleading numbers. Anything but primary data these days is suspect. (Pfizer’s own primary data, btw, says severe disease is 75% RRR with CI 0-100%. Did you see anyone reporting on that?) Edit: to add: Israel is an a horrible bind right now. The vaccine is only 50% effective but gov has done very badly in handling the disease and promoted the vaccine as “our way out”, so the gov is attempting to hide that data. Unfortunately for them, Israel is too small and the culture not supportive of hiding this, even if at this point the mass media is cooperating with the government.