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> Lockdowns do not work Hi, Victoria, Australia here. Today, our state is at 24 days of zero community transmission of covid, managed largely via a small lock

by mewse 6y ago

> Lockdowns do not work Hi, Victoria, Australia here. Today, our state is at 24 days of zero community transmission of covid, managed largely via a small lockdown after a small outbreak from interstate. Before that small outbreak, we were up to 80-ish days of zero community transmission of covid, after a much much larger outbreak which was brought under control by a robust lockdown which began in March and continued into December. Lockdowns work, if people obey them. And we’re proof of that.

jtxxwl2 6y ago
Of course they work if people obey them. That's not the point.
timr 6y ago
> Today, our state is at 24 days of zero community transmission of covid, managed largely via a small lockdown after a small outbreak from interstate. Before that small outbreak, we were up to 80-ish days of zero community transmission of covid, after a much much larger outbreak which was brought under control by a robust lockdown which began in March and continued into December. Lockdowns work, if people obey them. And we’re proof of that. So let's re-phrase: you had one of the longest lockdowns in the world (110 days), spanning the fall, winter and spring...and then it came back in the summer, and you had to do it again. And you're in an isolated island nation with almost no international travel. Your story does not encourage me about the feasibility of the strategy you advocate -- it underscores how tenuous the situation actually is.
- lostlogin 6y ago
  People rail against lockdowns and claim eradication isn’t possible for various reasons, yet when shown examples of where it has worked and the freedoms it has allowed somehow that is also not an option. If everyone did it, we would have a solution. What Victoria achieved looked an impossible task for a while there, and shows that a severe outbreak can be corrected. That’s an achievement that can’t be underestimated. Why anyone in Australia or NZ would want to travel internationally for anything other than absolutely essential travel is baffling to me - outside of travel, we have achieved normality. Rampant covid and freedom of movement is not the freedom I want.
  - timr 6y ago
    > If everyone did it, we would have a solution. > Why anyone in Australia or NZ would want to travel internationally for anything other than absolutely essential travel is baffling to me "If it wasn't for other people, my plan would be perfect!"
    - lostlogin 6y ago
      > If it wasn't for other people, my plan would be perfect! I laughed. The plan is good, it belongs to Dr Ashley Bloomfield and The Ministry of Health here in NZ. I was using ‘we’ in a global sense, but unfortunately Bloomfield has no jurisdiction out there.
- mewse 6y ago
  > you had one of the longest lockdowns in the world (110 days) If you want to be precise, there was one lockdown in April->May, and then the major one in July->November that we’ve been talking about. It was 112 days for that second lockdown, the severe one. (note that the exact restrictions changed over that period, but 112 days was the period for which there were any restrictions around when you were allowed to leave your home) > spanning the fall, winter and spring No, that would require around 270 days. The 112-day lockdown included the second half of winter and most of spring, but didn’t include any of Fall (which is March->May here in Australia, and also we call it Autumn). The first (much less severe) lockdown did take place in part of Fall, though. But that wasn’t part of the 112 day period that you were talking about. > and then it came back in the summer, and you had to do it again It was a small handful of cases in a corner of the state and we just backed up one step in the scheduled reduction of restrictions to make sure things didn’t get out of control; it lasted about three weeks before the government was satisfied that it was contained and restrictions resumed easing. It absolutely wasn’t a case of “do it all again”. > And you're in an isolated island nation with almost no international travel. Note that “almost no international travel” is because it was shut down by the government, to protect against the spread of Covid. That’s another option that’s available to other countries. It might also interest you to know that we’re holding the Australian Open here in about a week, with folks arriving from all over the world. They’re apparently expecting to have 30,000 spectators attending per day, in person. > Your story does not encourage me about the feasibility of the strategy you advocate -- it underscores how tenuous the situation actually is. Oh, it’s absolutely tenuous. Absolutely. Everyone has to be working together for it to effectively bring cases down to zero, as has happened here in Australia and in New Zealand. One bad apple or one selfish person in the wrong place can undo the sacrifices of thousands of people who are doing the right thing. But what’s the alternative? Just stand around and watch the corpses pile up? (3500 covid deaths yesterday in the USA, for example) I would take the lockdown over that, personally. In fact, I did. And today, after the lockdown has ended, I went to work in an office. And I took public transport to get there. 0 locally acquired cases, for the 24th day in a row.

by mewse 6y ago

jtxxwl2 6y ago

Of course they work if people obey them. That's not the point.

timr 6y ago

> Today, our state is at 24 days of zero community transmission of covid, managed largely via a small lockdown after a small outbreak from interstate. Before that small outbreak, we were up to 80-ish days of zero community transmission of covid, after a much much larger outbreak which was brought under control by a robust lockdown which began in March and continued into December. Lockdowns work, if people obey them. And we’re proof of that. So let's re-phrase: you had one of the longest lockdowns in the world (110 days), spanning the fall, winter and spring...and then it came back in the summer, and you had to do it again. And you're in an isolated island nation with almost no international travel. Your story does not encourage me about the feasibility of the strategy you advocate -- it underscores how tenuous the situation actually is.

lostlogin 6y ago
People rail against lockdowns and claim eradication isn’t possible for various reasons, yet when shown examples of where it has worked and the freedoms it has allowed somehow that is also not an option. If everyone did it, we would have a solution. What Victoria achieved looked an impossible task for a while there, and shows that a severe outbreak can be corrected. That’s an achievement that can’t be underestimated. Why anyone in Australia or NZ would want to travel internationally for anything other than absolutely essential travel is baffling to me - outside of travel, we have achieved normality. Rampant covid and freedom of movement is not the freedom I want.
- timr 6y ago
  > If everyone did it, we would have a solution. > Why anyone in Australia or NZ would want to travel internationally for anything other than absolutely essential travel is baffling to me "If it wasn't for other people, my plan would be perfect!"
  - lostlogin 6y ago
    > If it wasn't for other people, my plan would be perfect! I laughed. The plan is good, it belongs to Dr Ashley Bloomfield and The Ministry of Health here in NZ. I was using ‘we’ in a global sense, but unfortunately Bloomfield has no jurisdiction out there.
mewse 6y ago
> you had one of the longest lockdowns in the world (110 days) If you want to be precise, there was one lockdown in April->May, and then the major one in July->November that we’ve been talking about. It was 112 days for that second lockdown, the severe one. (note that the exact restrictions changed over that period, but 112 days was the period for which there were any restrictions around when you were allowed to leave your home) > spanning the fall, winter and spring No, that would require around 270 days. The 112-day lockdown included the second half of winter and most of spring, but didn’t include any of Fall (which is March->May here in Australia, and also we call it Autumn). The first (much less severe) lockdown did take place in part of Fall, though. But that wasn’t part of the 112 day period that you were talking about. > and then it came back in the summer, and you had to do it again It was a small handful of cases in a corner of the state and we just backed up one step in the scheduled reduction of restrictions to make sure things didn’t get out of control; it lasted about three weeks before the government was satisfied that it was contained and restrictions resumed easing. It absolutely wasn’t a case of “do it all again”. > And you're in an isolated island nation with almost no international travel. Note that “almost no international travel” is because it was shut down by the government, to protect against the spread of Covid. That’s another option that’s available to other countries. It might also interest you to know that we’re holding the Australian Open here in about a week, with folks arriving from all over the world. They’re apparently expecting to have 30,000 spectators attending per day, in person. > Your story does not encourage me about the feasibility of the strategy you advocate -- it underscores how tenuous the situation actually is. Oh, it’s absolutely tenuous. Absolutely. Everyone has to be working together for it to effectively bring cases down to zero, as has happened here in Australia and in New Zealand. One bad apple or one selfish person in the wrong place can undo the sacrifices of thousands of people who are doing the right thing. But what’s the alternative? Just stand around and watch the corpses pile up? (3500 covid deaths yesterday in the USA, for example) I would take the lockdown over that, personally. In fact, I did. And today, after the lockdown has ended, I went to work in an office. And I took public transport to get there. 0 locally acquired cases, for the 24th day in a row.