6 ms·

Drone Swarms Are Getting Too Fast for Humans to Fight, U.S. General Warns

38 points by hirundo 6y ago

klyrs 6y ago
tl;dr The military wants to build fully automated, lethal defense systems capable of destroying a large volume of targets. Sounds like plausible reasoning; a state like China could pump out a million drones per day if they wanted to. OTOH, what's good for the goose is good for the gander; with a tweak to the target identification AI, such systems could easily be used against humans. It occurs to me that a simpler technology could be employed against drones: grapeshot. Also banned by the Geneva convention. Sounds like the lesser of two evils, but not nearly as profitable to the military industrial complex
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- zellyn 6y ago
  Nobody likes my dental floss cannons idea…
  - hindsightbias 6y ago
    Too cheap. Think nano filaments or something.
  - klyrs 6y ago
    Perhaps an army of those inflatable flappy bois would be effective in defending a fixed position against an onslaught of low altitude drones?
- lm28469 6y ago
  > China could pump out a million drones per day if they wanted to. The US too > It occurs to me that a simpler technology could be employed against drones: grapeshot. Terrorists are dropping mortar rounds on armored vehicles from relatively high altitude using commercially available drones in the middle east and it looks very effective. If the US or China start mass producing advanced autonomous drone swarms you can be 100% sure no amount of grapeshot will save you. Think about kamikaze vs US ships back in ww2, but you have hundred times the number of drones, they're smaller, faster, quieter, more lethal and you can barely detect them before they're on you. The grapeshot might work if you have 100 soldiers vs 1 drone, not in 100 vs 100 or 100 vs 1000
- neartheplain 6y ago
  The military wants to build fully automated, lethal defense systems capable of destroying a large volume of targets These already exist. Current models just target more-expensive drones, i.e. guided missiles: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counter_rocket,_artillery,_and_mortar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counter_rocket,_artillery,_and... https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a35034995/baghdad-green-zone-rocket-attack-gatling-gun-response/ https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a35034995/...
- jcun4128 6y ago
  Wonder what it would be? Physical eg. flak or directional jamming/emp that would be neat. Or computer-vision tied with phased array lasers dang. another one, atmosphere displacement so they can't fly
- LinuxBender 6y ago
  This movie sums up how I imagine this tech will evolve. Maybe better than what is in this movie. These drones take too long to identify friend or foe. [1] Or maybe we will skip that step and just eliminate anything that moves or has a heat or electrical signature in a zone. [1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEby9OkePpg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEby9OkePpg
- nradov 6y ago
  The Geneva Conventions don't ban grapeshot (or canister). But even though it's legal to use, the military is focusing on other more effective technologies for short range air defense.
hedora 6y ago
It’s a Science Fiction cliche, but automating lethal actions eliminates the psychological and political cost of eternal warfare. Banning automated lethal systems never had anything to do with concerns over their efficacy or accuracy. It’s interesting the people quoted in the article have reframed the debate around technical goals, instead of around basic morality.
- hirundo 6y ago
  > reframed the debate around technical goals, instead of around basic morality. So framed from the military intelligence perspective, where capability is prioritized over intent.
hindsightbias 6y ago
All your infantries are meat popsicles, General Turgidson.
01100011 6y ago
Anyone who has watched sumo robot fights has a picture of the velocity of future warfare. I always wondered as a kid why the fights in SciFi shows involved so many misses. The future of battle is quick, accurate and unfeeling.
- EForEndeavour 6y ago
  > sumo robot fights Ah, another YouTube rabbit hole: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mS-L2fpV1Is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mS-L2fpV1Is
  - blackrock 6y ago
    Fascinating. They should put the robot fights inside of a plexiglass. I’m surprised the judges haven’t been injured yet, even though they wear full leg shielding.
- silicon2401 6y ago
  never heard of robot sumo before this, thanks for sharing! Super cool. I wish we had more robotic competition in real life. Imagine how crazy the car or plane races could be. Unfortunately the only time I've really appreciated the power and speed of computers in a directly relatable way is with Super Smash Bros Melee TAS videos or this kind of robotic exhibition
  - Solocomplex 6y ago
    Real Steel is a great documentary on the subject.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
dhosek 6y ago
I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords.
jrochkind1 6y ago
US funds military drone development. US sells them around the world. US doesn't consider any international agreements against military drone use. US funds military AI. US argues that we need to let the military AI control the military drones in order to defend ourselves against military drones probably operated by military AI, that we were a main driver of developing and distributing in the first place. the future is gonna be great.
Diederich 6y ago
I know it is rather sensationalized, but how far off is this kind of technology? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HipTO_7mUOw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HipTO_7mUOw "Slaughterbots" posted in 2017. If I had to guess, I'd say that the tiny drones in this video still aren't capable of carrying the computational horsepower necessary for a lot of the activities portrayed. But...isn't it really a matter of time?
slowhand09 6y ago
2015 "Ghost Fleet" scifi novel elaborates on technology likely to rule the battlefield. I listened to the audiobook, twice. Its good.

38 points by hirundo 6y ago

tl;dr The military wants to build fully automated, lethal defense systems capable of destroying a large volume of targets. Sounds like plausible reasoning; a state like China could pump out a million drones per day if they wanted to. OTOH, what's good for the goose is good for the gander; with a tweak to the target identification AI, such systems could easily be used against humans. It occurs to me that a simpler technology could be employed against drones: grapeshot. Also banned by the Geneva convention. Sounds like the lesser of two evils, but not nearly as profitable to the military industrial complex

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
zellyn 6y ago
Nobody likes my dental floss cannons idea…
- hindsightbias 6y ago
  Too cheap. Think nano filaments or something.
- klyrs 6y ago
  Perhaps an army of those inflatable flappy bois would be effective in defending a fixed position against an onslaught of low altitude drones?
lm28469 6y ago
> China could pump out a million drones per day if they wanted to. The US too > It occurs to me that a simpler technology could be employed against drones: grapeshot. Terrorists are dropping mortar rounds on armored vehicles from relatively high altitude using commercially available drones in the middle east and it looks very effective. If the US or China start mass producing advanced autonomous drone swarms you can be 100% sure no amount of grapeshot will save you. Think about kamikaze vs US ships back in ww2, but you have hundred times the number of drones, they're smaller, faster, quieter, more lethal and you can barely detect them before they're on you. The grapeshot might work if you have 100 soldiers vs 1 drone, not in 100 vs 100 or 100 vs 1000
neartheplain 6y ago
The military wants to build fully automated, lethal defense systems capable of destroying a large volume of targets These already exist. Current models just target more-expensive drones, i.e. guided missiles: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counter_rocket,_artillery,_and_mortar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counter_rocket,_artillery,_and... https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a35034995/baghdad-green-zone-rocket-attack-gatling-gun-response/ https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a35034995/...
jcun4128 6y ago
Wonder what it would be? Physical eg. flak or directional jamming/emp that would be neat. Or computer-vision tied with phased array lasers dang. another one, atmosphere displacement so they can't fly
LinuxBender 6y ago
This movie sums up how I imagine this tech will evolve. Maybe better than what is in this movie. These drones take too long to identify friend or foe. [1] Or maybe we will skip that step and just eliminate anything that moves or has a heat or electrical signature in a zone. [1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEby9OkePpg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEby9OkePpg
nradov 6y ago
The Geneva Conventions don't ban grapeshot (or canister). But even though it's legal to use, the military is focusing on other more effective technologies for short range air defense.

hedora 6y ago

It’s a Science Fiction cliche, but automating lethal actions eliminates the psychological and political cost of eternal warfare. Banning automated lethal systems never had anything to do with concerns over their efficacy or accuracy. It’s interesting the people quoted in the article have reframed the debate around technical goals, instead of around basic morality.

hirundo 6y ago
> reframed the debate around technical goals, instead of around basic morality. So framed from the military intelligence perspective, where capability is prioritized over intent.

hindsightbias 6y ago

All your infantries are meat popsicles, General Turgidson.

01100011 6y ago

Anyone who has watched sumo robot fights has a picture of the velocity of future warfare. I always wondered as a kid why the fights in SciFi shows involved so many misses. The future of battle is quick, accurate and unfeeling.

EForEndeavour 6y ago
> sumo robot fights Ah, another YouTube rabbit hole: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mS-L2fpV1Is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mS-L2fpV1Is
- blackrock 6y ago
  Fascinating. They should put the robot fights inside of a plexiglass. I’m surprised the judges haven’t been injured yet, even though they wear full leg shielding.
silicon2401 6y ago
never heard of robot sumo before this, thanks for sharing! Super cool. I wish we had more robotic competition in real life. Imagine how crazy the car or plane races could be. Unfortunately the only time I've really appreciated the power and speed of computers in a directly relatable way is with Super Smash Bros Melee TAS videos or this kind of robotic exhibition
- Solocomplex 6y ago
  Real Steel is a great documentary on the subject.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

dhosek 6y ago

I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords.

jrochkind1 6y ago

US funds military drone development. US sells them around the world. US doesn't consider any international agreements against military drone use. US funds military AI. US argues that we need to let the military AI control the military drones in order to defend ourselves against military drones probably operated by military AI, that we were a main driver of developing and distributing in the first place. the future is gonna be great.

Diederich 6y ago

I know it is rather sensationalized, but how far off is this kind of technology? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HipTO_7mUOw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HipTO_7mUOw "Slaughterbots" posted in 2017. If I had to guess, I'd say that the tiny drones in this video still aren't capable of carrying the computational horsepower necessary for a lot of the activities portrayed. But...isn't it really a matter of time?

slowhand09 6y ago

2015 "Ghost Fleet" scifi novel elaborates on technology likely to rule the battlefield. I listened to the audiobook, twice. Its good.