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How do you know they don’t think that the GameStop bag will have money in it?

by 6nf 6y ago

fennecfoxen 6y ago
It's possible they think so, but if they think it'll have money in it, after it lost money six of the last seven quarters, I'm not sure what they're smoking.
- llampx 6y ago
  You could have said the same about $TSLA or $AMZN at some point in their history. If stocks were rational, TSLA shorts would have made money last year instead of losing billoins.
  - fennecfoxen 6y ago
    Neither Tesla nor Amazon went +10,000% in the space of a week. There's a long term bull case for Gamestop at the $5/share levels of August. There's a bull case for Gamestop at the $17/share levels of early January. I might not believe them personally, but someone can make that case without being insane. There's no bull case for Gamestop at $468.50 a share this moment as I type. There is no way that Gamestop goes from slightly negative EPS to $23/share earnings (a P/E of 20). And that's what it would take to put money in the bag. All that is here is a Ponzi scheme.
    - throw0101a 6y ago
      > There's no bull case for Gamestop at $468.50 a share this moment as I type. Yes there is. The bull case is for those people who have options contracts that they need to fulfill. If they do not fulfill those contracts there will be consequences: perhaps reputation loss, perhaps law suits, perhaps SEC investigations (with fines and/or jail time). For those people, GME at even at $1000/share may be "cheap" compared to the consequences they face.
      - fennecfoxen 6y ago
        That's not a bull case. Yeah, we know these are real people who exist. But there's a finite number of them, and we're talking about what happens after they've all either paid up or gone broke and everyone else is stuck with the shares of Gamestop they paid $450 for.
        throw0101a 6y ago
        IMHO it's a bull case as long as option contracts still need to be filled. Every company (and stock) works under changing circumstances: regulatory changes, competition, technological innovation, economic/financial circumstances (economic prosperity, rate environment), etc. Just because a bull case may not exist for GME-as-ownership-unit, does not necessarily mean a bull case does not exist for GME-as-contract-closure-instrument. If you want to focus on GME-as-ownership-unit, as a share in a retail business, that's perfectly valid. But that's not the only perspective. Right now there's a bull case for GME(-as-contract-closure-instrument): that may not be the case in the future. But that's no different than any other commodity (IMHO).
- HideousKojima 6y ago
  While the ever accelerating shift to digital purchases will definitely gut what used to be Gamestop's core business, it's entirely possible that Gamestop could successfully pivot to a new business model that makes them profitable again. Not probable, mind you, but definitely possible.
SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
Because they spent much of the last few days discussing their reasoning on public forums, and it consisted almost exclusively of one of two messages: * Short sellers have to buy lots of GME from us on Friday, so we'll be rich if the stock has a high price then. * The rest of us are buying and holding lots of GME so you should too.

How do you know they don’t think that the GameStop bag will have money in it?

by 6nf 6y ago

How do you know they don’t think that the GameStop bag will have money in it?

It's possible they think so, but if they think it'll have money in it, after it lost money six of the last seven quarters, I'm not sure what they're smoking.

llampx 6y ago
You could have said the same about $TSLA or $AMZN at some point in their history. If stocks were rational, TSLA shorts would have made money last year instead of losing billoins.
- fennecfoxen 6y ago
  Neither Tesla nor Amazon went +10,000% in the space of a week. There's a long term bull case for Gamestop at the $5/share levels of August. There's a bull case for Gamestop at the $17/share levels of early January. I might not believe them personally, but someone can make that case without being insane. There's no bull case for Gamestop at $468.50 a share this moment as I type. There is no way that Gamestop goes from slightly negative EPS to $23/share earnings (a P/E of 20). And that's what it would take to put money in the bag. All that is here is a Ponzi scheme.
  - throw0101a 6y ago
    > There's no bull case for Gamestop at $468.50 a share this moment as I type. Yes there is. The bull case is for those people who have options contracts that they need to fulfill. If they do not fulfill those contracts there will be consequences: perhaps reputation loss, perhaps law suits, perhaps SEC investigations (with fines and/or jail time). For those people, GME at even at $1000/share may be "cheap" compared to the consequences they face.
    - fennecfoxen 6y ago
      That's not a bull case. Yeah, we know these are real people who exist. But there's a finite number of them, and we're talking about what happens after they've all either paid up or gone broke and everyone else is stuck with the shares of Gamestop they paid $450 for.
      - throw0101a 6y ago
        IMHO it's a bull case as long as option contracts still need to be filled. Every company (and stock) works under changing circumstances: regulatory changes, competition, technological innovation, economic/financial circumstances (economic prosperity, rate environment), etc. Just because a bull case may not exist for GME-as-ownership-unit, does not necessarily mean a bull case does not exist for GME-as-contract-closure-instrument. If you want to focus on GME-as-ownership-unit, as a share in a retail business, that's perfectly valid. But that's not the only perspective. Right now there's a bull case for GME(-as-contract-closure-instrument): that may not be the case in the future. But that's no different than any other commodity (IMHO).
HideousKojima 6y ago
While the ever accelerating shift to digital purchases will definitely gut what used to be Gamestop's core business, it's entirely possible that Gamestop could successfully pivot to a new business model that makes them profitable again. Not probable, mind you, but definitely possible.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

Because they spent much of the last few days discussing their reasoning on public forums, and it consisted almost exclusively of one of two messages: * Short sellers have to buy lots of GME from us on Friday, so we'll be rich if the stock has a high price then. * The rest of us are buying and holding lots of GME so you should too.