Yep, that quote is an opinion from one person. "Virus expert" or no, it is still speculation. The fact that said expert is confidently claiming that 75% number

Yep, that quote is an opinion from one person. "Virus expert" or no, it is still speculation. The fact that said expert is confidently claiming that 75% number makes me doubt his opinion. We can't confidently estimate the proportion of people infected in the US or Europe. I don't know how you'd begin to claim such a thing in Brazil, where the access to testing and data reporting is quite poor. > for millenia the most-effective method of weather forecasting was constancy: "Tomorrow will be just like today" I disagree that this like predicting the weather. The weather has consistent seasonal patterns that give you ~90% (brown number) of the story (ironically, this virus is also probably strongly seasonal, but I digress). Here, we're engaged in speculation that some "new strain" might be worse than the existing strain. It's the opposite of using long-term trends to predict the future. It's a bit like claiming that every new typhoon is going to be the worst one ever, because it's different than the last typhoon in some way.