4 ms·

You would've made the same comparison between Apple and Nokia back in 2008. If you've ever driven a Tesla, you'll realize that it is a paradigm shift just like

You would've made the same comparison between Apple and Nokia back in 2008. If you've ever driven a Tesla, you'll realize that it is a paradigm shift just like the iPhone was back in 2008 relative to Nokia.

ChuckMcM 6y ago
Or Blackberry/RIM but the same. Basically the market has priced in that while existing car manufacturers have more sales, they are essentially dying and they need to come up with a car that is competitive to the Tesla electric offerings to compete. And so far they haven't shown the ability to do that.
- orange_tee 6y ago
  And who are they going to sell them too? The people who buy Teslas are Tesla fanbois not generic EV customers. And a car company like Honda cannot generate the kind of hype theater that Tesla can, especially not in the US. Other car manufacturers cannot replicate Tesla's success because their customers are different and generic EVs are not a good value preposition for most of these customers.
  - ChuckMcM 6y ago
    I would be interested in hearing how you reason to the statement that the "Other car manufacturers customers are different." As I see it, there are just "car customers." And they are a diverse population, from those who need maximum reliability and economy to those for whom their vehicle is an extension of their need for attention. But as diverse as they are, they form a single set, known in marketing parlance as the "total addressable market." When you write, "The people who buy Teslas are Tesla fanbois ..." it reminds me when people would say "The people who buy a computer for their home are nerds ..." I expect that both of these statements were solidly true at one point, and then became less and less true over time as the diversity of people who felt the product in question was the right choice increased. So what I see in Tesla's results, and their history, is that they created a niche product that many people didn't understand the need for. But over time, as more and more have been shipped, more people can see the benefit. For example, here is a real anecdote. As an anecdote it means nothing of course, but for me it felt significant. My neighbor just bought a model 3. They had been in the camp that these things were a fad, a toy, a ridiculous idea, and "what about the range, and who wants to wait an hour to fill up?" kind of things. But another neighbor has one as well and has had it for a couple of years now. And we all talk and that neighbor was chuckling that they didn't even know the price of gas anymore since they hadn't been to a gas station in over a year! In those discussions, the range of the model 3 was such that they charge at home, and even on very "busy" days never have to plan to stop at a charging station. That is because in "real life" they never drive more than 200 miles in a day, and they never cannot fully recharge over night. Once the lightbulb went on about the reality of this, my other neighbor got their own Model 3. It was, for me, seeing one of the general pool of customers switch over from "only gas is okay" to "this could work for me." And that was instructive. Given the volume ramp reported by Tesla, I would not be surprised if this "conversion" experience were happening at an accelerating pace.
- ckastner 6y ago
  > Basically the market has priced in that while existing car manufacturers have more sales, they are essentially dying Please. They're not even close to dying. > and they need to come up with a car that is competitive to the Tesla electric offerings to compete And they are doing exactly that. VW alone already has $86bn spending committed to its EV lineup. You associate the existing manufacturers with a Blackberry/RIM situation, but that is simply not the case. This is more of an Apple/Android type of situation. Apple triggered this paradigm shift, and dozens of others (Samsung, Motorola, etc.) followed suit almost immediately. Sure, it's going to take existing car manufacturers a few years to catch up. Just as it will take Tesla a few years to ramp up production to competitive numbers.
- threeseed 6y ago
  > And so far they haven't shown the ability to do that You do know that the best selling EV in Europe isn't a Tesla ? https://i.redd.it/m6z20txyyvd61.jpg https://i.redd.it/m6z20txyyvd61.jpg Also Porsche Taycan is better in almost every single way than a Tesla: 800V architecture, driving dynamics, interior/exterior design, polish etc. Likewise the VW ID 3/4 is very much on par with a Model 3.
dogma1138 6y ago
If you’ve driven an EV from Audi, Porsche or BMW you’ll see how it’s not. Tesla feels like a $100 Android from AliExpress compared to an iPhone.
- rasz 6y ago
  Have you? Because Audi EV might look like luxurious hotel when stationary, but start driving and you quickly realize its EV for the old people made to feel like petrol car.
  - dogma1138 6y ago
    Yes I have, it’s actually pleasant to drive and steer, it handles like a luxury sedan and it feels like one unlike a Tesla which feels cheaper than what Prius did 15 years ago.
    - rasz 6y ago
      Just to be sure we are both talking about e-tron suv, right? It handles like a modern work truck, or almost 20 year old weakest spec Cayenne after loading it up with !500 kg! of bricks. Its great if you are an older gentleman and your main requirements are nice soft plushy seats, think American land yachts (Cadillac) in the 70-80s. Infotainment also takes me back 20 years - Voice control doesnt understand the name of second biggest city in a central European country, and is unable to plot a 300 km route from the capital to the second biggest city (after entering it manually with on screen keyboard, it wouldnt work otherwise) on half a charge, gives up looking for chargers claiming there are none. We are ~1000km from the place the car is manufactured, and it doesnt recognize mayor cities and is unable to direct me to a charger. Yes, the trim quality is excellent, doesnt change the fact its "EV for the old people made to feel like petrol car". Its a Nokia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_N82 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_N82 industry leading finish quality, outdated specs.
      - dogma1138 6y ago
        I don’t know what you drove by I drove the 2020 Audi sportback in the UK and it didn’t feel like an old man’s car. As far for the navigation system again no issues, a 1000km from where the car was manufactured could be anywhere in Europe form rural Portugal to Bratislava that has no baring on the quality of the vehicle itself.

ChuckMcM 6y ago

Or Blackberry/RIM but the same. Basically the market has priced in that while existing car manufacturers have more sales, they are essentially dying and they need to come up with a car that is competitive to the Tesla electric offerings to compete. And so far they haven't shown the ability to do that.

orange_tee 6y ago
And who are they going to sell them too? The people who buy Teslas are Tesla fanbois not generic EV customers. And a car company like Honda cannot generate the kind of hype theater that Tesla can, especially not in the US. Other car manufacturers cannot replicate Tesla's success because their customers are different and generic EVs are not a good value preposition for most of these customers.
- ChuckMcM 6y ago
  I would be interested in hearing how you reason to the statement that the "Other car manufacturers customers are different." As I see it, there are just "car customers." And they are a diverse population, from those who need maximum reliability and economy to those for whom their vehicle is an extension of their need for attention. But as diverse as they are, they form a single set, known in marketing parlance as the "total addressable market." When you write, "The people who buy Teslas are Tesla fanbois ..." it reminds me when people would say "The people who buy a computer for their home are nerds ..." I expect that both of these statements were solidly true at one point, and then became less and less true over time as the diversity of people who felt the product in question was the right choice increased. So what I see in Tesla's results, and their history, is that they created a niche product that many people didn't understand the need for. But over time, as more and more have been shipped, more people can see the benefit. For example, here is a real anecdote. As an anecdote it means nothing of course, but for me it felt significant. My neighbor just bought a model 3. They had been in the camp that these things were a fad, a toy, a ridiculous idea, and "what about the range, and who wants to wait an hour to fill up?" kind of things. But another neighbor has one as well and has had it for a couple of years now. And we all talk and that neighbor was chuckling that they didn't even know the price of gas anymore since they hadn't been to a gas station in over a year! In those discussions, the range of the model 3 was such that they charge at home, and even on very "busy" days never have to plan to stop at a charging station. That is because in "real life" they never drive more than 200 miles in a day, and they never cannot fully recharge over night. Once the lightbulb went on about the reality of this, my other neighbor got their own Model 3. It was, for me, seeing one of the general pool of customers switch over from "only gas is okay" to "this could work for me." And that was instructive. Given the volume ramp reported by Tesla, I would not be surprised if this "conversion" experience were happening at an accelerating pace.
ckastner 6y ago
> Basically the market has priced in that while existing car manufacturers have more sales, they are essentially dying Please. They're not even close to dying. > and they need to come up with a car that is competitive to the Tesla electric offerings to compete And they are doing exactly that. VW alone already has $86bn spending committed to its EV lineup. You associate the existing manufacturers with a Blackberry/RIM situation, but that is simply not the case. This is more of an Apple/Android type of situation. Apple triggered this paradigm shift, and dozens of others (Samsung, Motorola, etc.) followed suit almost immediately. Sure, it's going to take existing car manufacturers a few years to catch up. Just as it will take Tesla a few years to ramp up production to competitive numbers.
threeseed 6y ago
> And so far they haven't shown the ability to do that You do know that the best selling EV in Europe isn't a Tesla ? https://i.redd.it/m6z20txyyvd61.jpg https://i.redd.it/m6z20txyyvd61.jpg Also Porsche Taycan is better in almost every single way than a Tesla: 800V architecture, driving dynamics, interior/exterior design, polish etc. Likewise the VW ID 3/4 is very much on par with a Model 3.

dogma1138 6y ago

If you’ve driven an EV from Audi, Porsche or BMW you’ll see how it’s not. Tesla feels like a $100 Android from AliExpress compared to an iPhone.

rasz 6y ago
Have you? Because Audi EV might look like luxurious hotel when stationary, but start driving and you quickly realize its EV for the old people made to feel like petrol car.
- dogma1138 6y ago
  Yes I have, it’s actually pleasant to drive and steer, it handles like a luxury sedan and it feels like one unlike a Tesla which feels cheaper than what Prius did 15 years ago.
  - rasz 6y ago
    Just to be sure we are both talking about e-tron suv, right? It handles like a modern work truck, or almost 20 year old weakest spec Cayenne after loading it up with !500 kg! of bricks. Its great if you are an older gentleman and your main requirements are nice soft plushy seats, think American land yachts (Cadillac) in the 70-80s. Infotainment also takes me back 20 years - Voice control doesnt understand the name of second biggest city in a central European country, and is unable to plot a 300 km route from the capital to the second biggest city (after entering it manually with on screen keyboard, it wouldnt work otherwise) on half a charge, gives up looking for chargers claiming there are none. We are ~1000km from the place the car is manufactured, and it doesnt recognize mayor cities and is unable to direct me to a charger. Yes, the trim quality is excellent, doesnt change the fact its "EV for the old people made to feel like petrol car". Its a Nokia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_N82 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_N82 industry leading finish quality, outdated specs.
    - dogma1138 6y ago
      I don’t know what you drove by I drove the 2020 Audi sportback in the UK and it didn’t feel like an old man’s car. As far for the navigation system again no issues, a 1000km from where the car was manufactured could be anywhere in Europe form rural Portugal to Bratislava that has no baring on the quality of the vehicle itself.