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I made over 100 trades

mempko 6y ago
What's your return distribution look like on those trades? Pareto?
edgyquant 6y ago
I make winning option trades as well, as a hedge against my portfolio. If you made a disproportionate amount of cash of an options play it was luck. I’ve done it before, made almost 1500% on an AGFS play when I saw a consistent downtrend in it. But it was luck and nothing else.
- totalZero 6y ago
  This is a really, truly bad take. Option prices move every day. There do exist, in fact, some people who are very skilled at making money trading options. Some people do it for a living with rich people's money, and many of them have the same skillset/education as the general HN audience. If this guy actually made millions over the course of dozens of trades, it makes more sense to let him talk than to downvote him and tell him that he's just an aberration of probability lol. Like, what do you gain by that? If he's lying, humor him and enjoy the conversation. If he's telling the truth, pick his brain.
  - edgyquant 6y ago
    I don’t have enough karma to downvote, dude. It’s also not a bad take. Institutional investors do indeed make a killing and you can do fine using i.e. the wheel strategy. But if you’re YOLOing on WSB and you aren’t an institutional investor it is almost certainly luck to turn thousands into millions.
    - tootie 6y ago
      I'm with you. I think the thing is that a YOLO play has better odds than winning the lotto or playing roulette. Some people make millions playing poker too.
      - edgyquant 6y ago
        Definitely it does, and it’s not all luck. As I said I’ve done pretty good myself with options with basic trend following techniques I learned as an aspiring algotrader. I believe I would have made money either way but my couple of >1000% gains were luck on top of the trend following.
    - totalZero 6y ago
      First of all, if you're YOLOing on WSB and you are an institutional investor, you should really re-examine your choices lol. My view is that most people don't talk publicly about windfalls, so if someone's willing to do it on a throwaway it's way more useful IMO to tease information out of him than to marginalize his comments. That's also the best way to determine whether or not he's lying. If he's consistently lucky, then he's good. Probabilistic tails are narrow but they do exist. By that, I mean you shouldn't assume that something isn't worth discussing just because it is improbable. That approach stifles the free exchange of thoughts and ideas, and neglects the reality that some people are in fact talented at things that most people can't do. PS I didn't say you specifically downvoted the guy, but we as a collective have downvoted several of his comments on this article, and you as an individual are trivializing his (claimed) experience as luck.
  - imtringued 6y ago
    If everyone is following his strategy the market would be swept with liquidity and there would be no upside to his strategy.

What's your return distribution look like on those trades? Pareto?

I make winning option trades as well, as a hedge against my portfolio. If you made a disproportionate amount of cash of an options play it was luck. I’ve done it before, made almost 1500% on an AGFS play when I saw a consistent downtrend in it. But it was luck and nothing else.

totalZero 6y ago
This is a really, truly bad take. Option prices move every day. There do exist, in fact, some people who are very skilled at making money trading options. Some people do it for a living with rich people's money, and many of them have the same skillset/education as the general HN audience. If this guy actually made millions over the course of dozens of trades, it makes more sense to let him talk than to downvote him and tell him that he's just an aberration of probability lol. Like, what do you gain by that? If he's lying, humor him and enjoy the conversation. If he's telling the truth, pick his brain.
- edgyquant 6y ago
  I don’t have enough karma to downvote, dude. It’s also not a bad take. Institutional investors do indeed make a killing and you can do fine using i.e. the wheel strategy. But if you’re YOLOing on WSB and you aren’t an institutional investor it is almost certainly luck to turn thousands into millions.
  - tootie 6y ago
    I'm with you. I think the thing is that a YOLO play has better odds than winning the lotto or playing roulette. Some people make millions playing poker too.
    - edgyquant 6y ago
      Definitely it does, and it’s not all luck. As I said I’ve done pretty good myself with options with basic trend following techniques I learned as an aspiring algotrader. I believe I would have made money either way but my couple of >1000% gains were luck on top of the trend following.
  - totalZero 6y ago
    First of all, if you're YOLOing on WSB and you are an institutional investor, you should really re-examine your choices lol. My view is that most people don't talk publicly about windfalls, so if someone's willing to do it on a throwaway it's way more useful IMO to tease information out of him than to marginalize his comments. That's also the best way to determine whether or not he's lying. If he's consistently lucky, then he's good. Probabilistic tails are narrow but they do exist. By that, I mean you shouldn't assume that something isn't worth discussing just because it is improbable. That approach stifles the free exchange of thoughts and ideas, and neglects the reality that some people are in fact talented at things that most people can't do. PS I didn't say you specifically downvoted the guy, but we as a collective have downvoted several of his comments on this article, and you as an individual are trivializing his (claimed) experience as luck.
- imtringued 6y ago
  If everyone is following his strategy the market would be swept with liquidity and there would be no upside to his strategy.