12 ms·

'Global sales' I hope everyone understands in China it is very hard to get a licence plate, the government allows you to get a licence plate if you buy a heavil

by godmode2019 6y ago

'Global sales' I hope everyone understands in China it is very hard to get a licence plate, the government allows you to get a licence plate if you buy a heavily subsidised electric car. The aim is to stimulate demand to develop an industry. Large cities also banned motorbikes and scooters, with the same aim. This is no way market driven demand, BYD is a very interesting company to look into. It is my understanding that Warren buffet has a large share in this company. My believe is China sees oil dependence as a long term strategic weakness. In the event of a navel blockade it will be much harder for them to get the oil they need to run the economy. If a large part of the consumer sector is driven by electric powered by local sources (coal, hydro, nuclear) they can keep the logistic channels open. As a side benefit they get to fund a sector hoping to have the same success as they did with solar panels. The article might have pointed this out but it was paid past a certain point on my device.

perfunctory 6y ago
China is the biggest market indeed. As a counter point though > Sales of BEVs almost tripled in the UK, while those of PHEVs almost doubled, giving the vehicles a combined market share of 10.7%. Other non-plug-in hybrids took 18% of the market, but overall car sales were down 29%. Here is another interesting chart about Germany https://insideevs.com/news/447542/tesla-sales-growth-germany-2020/ https://insideevs.com/news/447542/tesla-sales-growth-germany... It's not solely China.
- Xylakant 6y ago
  Tesla’s sales in Germany are up ~20%, but on a very low level. Their total market share is now 0.5 percent. It’a definitely encouraging to see growth here, but there’s still a long way to go. It’s also important to keep in mind that the numbers for electric vehicles often include plug-in hybrids. They’re a neat idea in theory, but in practice, they often serve as a hybrid car and never get plugged in. The gains from those vehicles are somewhat limited, except that they are included in the subsidies for electric cars in Germany.
  - Ma8ee 6y ago
    Is like to have a source for the statement that plug in hybrid never gets plugged in. Everyone I know who has one charges it over night and only runs it on petroleum occasionally.
    - Xylakant 6y ago
      All the neighbours here on the compound bought it for subsidies only - there's no charging option in the parking garage. Edit: Adding some numbers from https://www.zeit.de/mobilitaet/2020-09/plug-in-hybrid-studie-fahrleistung-batterie-elektromotor-elektromobilitaet/seite-2 https://www.zeit.de/mobilitaet/2020-09/plug-in-hybrid-studie... (sorry, german) 43% of the private owners use the charging option, 18% of the company owned cars. However, due to tax incentives, 63% of all cars registered per year are company owned cars. The incentives are that you get a substantial tax break if you register a plug-in (or electric) car - leading to the odd result that 40% of all Porsche Panameras registered are plug-in hybrid cars.
      - rypskar 6y ago
        This is why I think more of the tax should be moved from buying to using. C02 tax for cars should be mostly at the pump when filling the tank, not when buying. A plug-in driven 10 000 km a year pollute more than any car driven 100 km a year.
      - fomine3 6y ago
        So it should be taxed same as hybrid car if owner doesn't have charging station at home. Some environment group argue that lower range PHEV is evil because it's just for cheat but I against. PHEV should cover daily use range (YMMV 30-60km?) but shouldn't need much because they have engine for fallback. Equipping mostly unneeded batteries is definitely bad for environment.
theshrike79 6y ago
China is a country lead by engineers with unlimited power to do whatever they want. If they want all cars to be electric, that will happen. If they want a 5 million person city just there because it's logistically advantageous, then that will happen. The good thing is that they can make decisions like this. The bad thing is that they can make decisions like this.
- missedthecue 6y ago
  Autocracies seem to be the most efficient form of governance. It's a shame that this also means that they can do evil things very efficiently, given no one can stop them.
  - kstenerud 6y ago
    Autocracies are only short-term efficient. Once their initial aims are met, they become terribly inefficient, then corruption sets in, and then they must be forcibly removed. It's good for other nations who can benefit from their trailblazing, but bad for the nation itself because they're basically fucked in the future when the bill comes due. Centralization is long-term the worst kind of governance, inevitably becoming as self-serving as kingdoms and monopolies. The bigger it is, the worse it gets and the sooner it gets there.
    - WanderPanda 6y ago
      I absolutely agree! I am just really struggling to put a time estimate on when the bill will come due for china. I think they can be in an upward trend for some more years as a technological follower. What I mean by that is that they use simple metrics of current technology (Ghz, GB, battery life, screen colors, electric car range and so in) and just “mandate” to get better in them. But all these things will eventually commoditise and if china wants to grow beyond that they have to come up with qualitative innovation. At least in my (very narrow) experience I have not seen much evidence for qualitative innovation in china. I think that is the point where their system (of this extreme obedient school system etc.) might start to struggle. I think the upper bound for that point would be a per capita gdp like south korea has (but probably much lower). After that point (which might be in lets say 10-20 years) there can still be a veeery long downward slope (the soviet union lasted for 69 years). I would be very interested in what other people think about this (and these timelines)
_ph_ 6y ago
Electric car sales are up in Germany by similar amounts. Completely without any force applied. The same in many European countries.
- clouddrover 6y ago
  Car companies must meet the EU fleet emissions standards and the only way most car companies will achieve that is by selling BEVs. Volkswagen and Renault are the top two BEV makers in Europe. Toyota is in a good position with their fleet emissions because they've been selling hybrids for so long. They're not under as much pressure to start selling BEVs in high volumes.
  - tonyedgecombe 6y ago
    It looks to me that Toyota has thrown away a huge advantage. Thet could have had an early lead with their experience with hybrids.
    - clouddrover 6y ago
      It probably won't matter that much. Toyota will start offering BEVs in large volumes eventually. They'll be Toyotas with a different powertrain.
  - _ph_ 6y ago
    Yes, the emission standards have forced the car manufacturers to offer electric cars. But how does it explain that customers are buying them? Even so much that there are long waiting times when you order an electric car. The answer is: there are enough customers interested in buying an electric cars but both the available product range and production count limited their ability to do so. With the offerings of electric cars improving, the consumers are happily buying into them.
    - konschubert 6y ago
      The car makers are taking a loss/low margin on BEVs sales . Pricing is tuned such that they can sell enough BEVs to meet the regulated fleet efficiency, but no more than that.
franklampard 6y ago
It might just be simply an environmental reason. The air quality has been intolerable and largely due to traffic
neuronic 6y ago
Bullshit anti-China post. Electric vehicles sales are rising across the board, not just in autocratic China.
- kortilla 6y ago
  Calm down. If anything the post speaks to how forward looking China is with electric incentives. If anything it’s anti-electric (implying subsidies are driving most demand), not anti-China.
Barrin92 6y ago
it's also a plain environmental issue given how populated Chinese cities are. For the air quality alone electric transport is worth it, the damage done by bad air is immeasurable already.
psnatch 6y ago
> If a large part of the consumer sector is driven by electric powered by local sources (coal, hydro, nuclear)... Didn't they have rolling blackouts in China earlier this month, due to a trade-spat with Australia + their reliance on their (our) coal?
- eunos 6y ago
  Blackout only occurs in a selected province due to strong export demands and early winter which increase electric heaters.
nickik 6y ago
This is no longer really the case. Last year many of the subsidies have been removed. If anything growth in China has slowed down because of that. Europe is actually the place that has put the most pressure on companies, because their new regulation required a fleet efficiency that. China does legitimately want to not have cities be a hellhole to live in and supporting EV made sense. Also because China hopes to be able to export EV, getting into the ICE car game would have been harder.
jordanbeiber 6y ago
I also believe that a country like China take a lot of different considerations in to this equation such as people health. Not because of empathic care, but rather workforce and long term cost management. They do things like this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2018/09/04/china-blames-video-games-poor-eyesight-evidence-isnt-strong/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2018/09/04/china-blam... If they have a goal or idea they can paint with a really large brush and hit a few birds with a really big stone. It's both a strength and ofc a weakness. Over here where actual market matters more we will often act much slower, which is a strength and a weakness. =)
namdnay 6y ago
> This is no way market driven demand, All demand is driven by the fiscal and regulatory framework, that's part of what defines the market That's like saying that petrol cars aren't "market driven demand" because there is a regulatory framework in place that lets you spew out CO2 and particles without paying fines
Theodores 6y ago
There is a five year plan in China to basically take over the entire global automotive sector by making electric cars. They are not interested in completing with ICE cars by selling cheap ICE cars, it is all about upping the game to a better product that is BEV. Europe had better watch out. The US can defend their market with tariffs so everyone there drives a truck. But the longer they do that then the more out of touch they will become. It is going to be fun to see how this works out. Tesla make great products but they are not a great market fit for Europe. There's so much scope for innovation but even now the Europe BEV efforts are ICE cars with the engine swapped out, therefore not cool.
- mmaurizi 6y ago
  > even now the Europe BEV efforts are ICE cars with the engine swapped out You should check out what VW has been doing lately - the ID.3 is an EV-only platform and is selling quite well in Europe - much more impressive than their past efforts.
gameswithgo 6y ago
It is good that gasoline cars and its fuels receive no subsidy of any kind so that we can be sure their sales are entirely market driven .
IAmGraydon 6y ago
BYD is Boyd Gaming, a casino operator. How is that related? Edit: Nevermind - I see that’s the company name, not a ticker.
Pxtl 6y ago
Well yeah, electric vehicles are costlier than ICEs, of course the shift isn't going to be market driven. It should be a given that all the changes needed to fight climate change will only happen with thumbs on scales.
EamonnMR 6y ago
Smog is also a huge issue, so it might be a way of trying to tackle that.
namelosw 6y ago
Oil dependence is only one factor of it, another factor is EV itself obviously has a bright future market, and it's a very good opportunity to take the advantage now. It's very hard to compete with traditional car industry - the brands are very well established. However traditional brands moves rather slow on EV because all kinds of their own issues. EV is the perfect opportunity for Chinese to jump in the market and take the first mover advantage. When there's any big change in any industry, the market would be shuffled, and there's always opportunity for China to take. It's as simple as that for the current world. I believe the same thing could also be said on semi-conductors industry soon. There were very few attempts earlier and ended up pretty ugly, because it was just not economic feasible to compete with Intel or Qualcomm a decade ago - if it's only 60% effective with the higher cost and same price nobody would buy it. But recently Apple released M1 and make everyone in industry start to reconsider alternative architectures - which may eventually led China to be an important player in the next decade.
- throwawaygh 6y ago
  > which may eventually led China to be an important player in the next decade. Seems highly unlikely. Today's TSMC is even harder to compete with than yesterday's Intel/Qualcomm or even long ago's IBM.
  - namelosw 6y ago
    They don't have to. They can work with TSMC just like Apple is doing in the first place - after finding a workaround to the current situation.
throwawaygh 6y ago
> This is no way market driven demand Serious question & not meant to be snarky: does any of this really matter when thinking about the future of electric vehicles?
dillondoyle 6y ago
why would they ban bikes!? especially in big cities they should learn from the US's horrible choice here. And China seems to have built some great public infrastructure too.

perfunctory 6y ago

China is the biggest market indeed. As a counter point though > Sales of BEVs almost tripled in the UK, while those of PHEVs almost doubled, giving the vehicles a combined market share of 10.7%. Other non-plug-in hybrids took 18% of the market, but overall car sales were down 29%. Here is another interesting chart about Germany https://insideevs.com/news/447542/tesla-sales-growth-germany-2020/ https://insideevs.com/news/447542/tesla-sales-growth-germany... It's not solely China.

Xylakant 6y ago
Tesla’s sales in Germany are up ~20%, but on a very low level. Their total market share is now 0.5 percent. It’a definitely encouraging to see growth here, but there’s still a long way to go. It’s also important to keep in mind that the numbers for electric vehicles often include plug-in hybrids. They’re a neat idea in theory, but in practice, they often serve as a hybrid car and never get plugged in. The gains from those vehicles are somewhat limited, except that they are included in the subsidies for electric cars in Germany.
- Ma8ee 6y ago
  Is like to have a source for the statement that plug in hybrid never gets plugged in. Everyone I know who has one charges it over night and only runs it on petroleum occasionally.
  - Xylakant 6y ago
    All the neighbours here on the compound bought it for subsidies only - there's no charging option in the parking garage. Edit: Adding some numbers from https://www.zeit.de/mobilitaet/2020-09/plug-in-hybrid-studie-fahrleistung-batterie-elektromotor-elektromobilitaet/seite-2 https://www.zeit.de/mobilitaet/2020-09/plug-in-hybrid-studie... (sorry, german) 43% of the private owners use the charging option, 18% of the company owned cars. However, due to tax incentives, 63% of all cars registered per year are company owned cars. The incentives are that you get a substantial tax break if you register a plug-in (or electric) car - leading to the odd result that 40% of all Porsche Panameras registered are plug-in hybrid cars.
    - rypskar 6y ago
      This is why I think more of the tax should be moved from buying to using. C02 tax for cars should be mostly at the pump when filling the tank, not when buying. A plug-in driven 10 000 km a year pollute more than any car driven 100 km a year.
    - fomine3 6y ago
      So it should be taxed same as hybrid car if owner doesn't have charging station at home. Some environment group argue that lower range PHEV is evil because it's just for cheat but I against. PHEV should cover daily use range (YMMV 30-60km?) but shouldn't need much because they have engine for fallback. Equipping mostly unneeded batteries is definitely bad for environment.

theshrike79 6y ago

China is a country lead by engineers with unlimited power to do whatever they want. If they want all cars to be electric, that will happen. If they want a 5 million person city just there because it's logistically advantageous, then that will happen. The good thing is that they can make decisions like this. The bad thing is that they can make decisions like this.

missedthecue 6y ago
Autocracies seem to be the most efficient form of governance. It's a shame that this also means that they can do evil things very efficiently, given no one can stop them.
- kstenerud 6y ago
  Autocracies are only short-term efficient. Once their initial aims are met, they become terribly inefficient, then corruption sets in, and then they must be forcibly removed. It's good for other nations who can benefit from their trailblazing, but bad for the nation itself because they're basically fucked in the future when the bill comes due. Centralization is long-term the worst kind of governance, inevitably becoming as self-serving as kingdoms and monopolies. The bigger it is, the worse it gets and the sooner it gets there.
  - WanderPanda 6y ago
    I absolutely agree! I am just really struggling to put a time estimate on when the bill will come due for china. I think they can be in an upward trend for some more years as a technological follower. What I mean by that is that they use simple metrics of current technology (Ghz, GB, battery life, screen colors, electric car range and so in) and just “mandate” to get better in them. But all these things will eventually commoditise and if china wants to grow beyond that they have to come up with qualitative innovation. At least in my (very narrow) experience I have not seen much evidence for qualitative innovation in china. I think that is the point where their system (of this extreme obedient school system etc.) might start to struggle. I think the upper bound for that point would be a per capita gdp like south korea has (but probably much lower). After that point (which might be in lets say 10-20 years) there can still be a veeery long downward slope (the soviet union lasted for 69 years). I would be very interested in what other people think about this (and these timelines)

_ph_ 6y ago

Electric car sales are up in Germany by similar amounts. Completely without any force applied. The same in many European countries.

clouddrover 6y ago
Car companies must meet the EU fleet emissions standards and the only way most car companies will achieve that is by selling BEVs. Volkswagen and Renault are the top two BEV makers in Europe. Toyota is in a good position with their fleet emissions because they've been selling hybrids for so long. They're not under as much pressure to start selling BEVs in high volumes.
- tonyedgecombe 6y ago
  It looks to me that Toyota has thrown away a huge advantage. Thet could have had an early lead with their experience with hybrids.
  - clouddrover 6y ago
    It probably won't matter that much. Toyota will start offering BEVs in large volumes eventually. They'll be Toyotas with a different powertrain.
- _ph_ 6y ago
  Yes, the emission standards have forced the car manufacturers to offer electric cars. But how does it explain that customers are buying them? Even so much that there are long waiting times when you order an electric car. The answer is: there are enough customers interested in buying an electric cars but both the available product range and production count limited their ability to do so. With the offerings of electric cars improving, the consumers are happily buying into them.
  - konschubert 6y ago
    The car makers are taking a loss/low margin on BEVs sales . Pricing is tuned such that they can sell enough BEVs to meet the regulated fleet efficiency, but no more than that.

franklampard 6y ago

It might just be simply an environmental reason. The air quality has been intolerable and largely due to traffic

neuronic 6y ago

Bullshit anti-China post. Electric vehicles sales are rising across the board, not just in autocratic China.

kortilla 6y ago
Calm down. If anything the post speaks to how forward looking China is with electric incentives. If anything it’s anti-electric (implying subsidies are driving most demand), not anti-China.

Barrin92 6y ago

it's also a plain environmental issue given how populated Chinese cities are. For the air quality alone electric transport is worth it, the damage done by bad air is immeasurable already.

psnatch 6y ago

> If a large part of the consumer sector is driven by electric powered by local sources (coal, hydro, nuclear)... Didn't they have rolling blackouts in China earlier this month, due to a trade-spat with Australia + their reliance on their (our) coal?

eunos 6y ago
Blackout only occurs in a selected province due to strong export demands and early winter which increase electric heaters.

nickik 6y ago

This is no longer really the case. Last year many of the subsidies have been removed. If anything growth in China has slowed down because of that. Europe is actually the place that has put the most pressure on companies, because their new regulation required a fleet efficiency that. China does legitimately want to not have cities be a hellhole to live in and supporting EV made sense. Also because China hopes to be able to export EV, getting into the ICE car game would have been harder.

jordanbeiber 6y ago

I also believe that a country like China take a lot of different considerations in to this equation such as people health. Not because of empathic care, but rather workforce and long term cost management. They do things like this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2018/09/04/china-blames-video-games-poor-eyesight-evidence-isnt-strong/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2018/09/04/china-blam... If they have a goal or idea they can paint with a really large brush and hit a few birds with a really big stone. It's both a strength and ofc a weakness. Over here where actual market matters more we will often act much slower, which is a strength and a weakness. =)

namdnay 6y ago

> This is no way market driven demand, All demand is driven by the fiscal and regulatory framework, that's part of what defines the market That's like saying that petrol cars aren't "market driven demand" because there is a regulatory framework in place that lets you spew out CO2 and particles without paying fines

Theodores 6y ago

There is a five year plan in China to basically take over the entire global automotive sector by making electric cars. They are not interested in completing with ICE cars by selling cheap ICE cars, it is all about upping the game to a better product that is BEV. Europe had better watch out. The US can defend their market with tariffs so everyone there drives a truck. But the longer they do that then the more out of touch they will become. It is going to be fun to see how this works out. Tesla make great products but they are not a great market fit for Europe. There's so much scope for innovation but even now the Europe BEV efforts are ICE cars with the engine swapped out, therefore not cool.

mmaurizi 6y ago
> even now the Europe BEV efforts are ICE cars with the engine swapped out You should check out what VW has been doing lately - the ID.3 is an EV-only platform and is selling quite well in Europe - much more impressive than their past efforts.

gameswithgo 6y ago

It is good that gasoline cars and its fuels receive no subsidy of any kind so that we can be sure their sales are entirely market driven .

IAmGraydon 6y ago

BYD is Boyd Gaming, a casino operator. How is that related? Edit: Nevermind - I see that’s the company name, not a ticker.

Pxtl 6y ago

Well yeah, electric vehicles are costlier than ICEs, of course the shift isn't going to be market driven. It should be a given that all the changes needed to fight climate change will only happen with thumbs on scales.

EamonnMR 6y ago

Smog is also a huge issue, so it might be a way of trying to tackle that.

namelosw 6y ago

Oil dependence is only one factor of it, another factor is EV itself obviously has a bright future market, and it's a very good opportunity to take the advantage now. It's very hard to compete with traditional car industry - the brands are very well established. However traditional brands moves rather slow on EV because all kinds of their own issues. EV is the perfect opportunity for Chinese to jump in the market and take the first mover advantage. When there's any big change in any industry, the market would be shuffled, and there's always opportunity for China to take. It's as simple as that for the current world. I believe the same thing could also be said on semi-conductors industry soon. There were very few attempts earlier and ended up pretty ugly, because it was just not economic feasible to compete with Intel or Qualcomm a decade ago - if it's only 60% effective with the higher cost and same price nobody would buy it. But recently Apple released M1 and make everyone in industry start to reconsider alternative architectures - which may eventually led China to be an important player in the next decade.

throwawaygh 6y ago
> which may eventually led China to be an important player in the next decade. Seems highly unlikely. Today's TSMC is even harder to compete with than yesterday's Intel/Qualcomm or even long ago's IBM.
- namelosw 6y ago
  They don't have to. They can work with TSMC just like Apple is doing in the first place - after finding a workaround to the current situation.

throwawaygh 6y ago

> This is no way market driven demand Serious question & not meant to be snarky: does any of this really matter when thinking about the future of electric vehicles?

dillondoyle 6y ago

why would they ban bikes!? especially in big cities they should learn from the US's horrible choice here. And China seems to have built some great public infrastructure too.