5 ms·

It takes years to train a nurse and a decade to train a physician. An indication of max capacity is when hospitals halt elective procedures. There are currently

It takes years to train a nurse and a decade to train a physician. An indication of max capacity is when hospitals halt elective procedures. There are currently 130K people laid out in hospitals. We have mercifully just trended down from a third peak. Would you rather we get Italy's fate of mass casualty stage rationing?

Izkata 6y ago
Here in Chicago we built [0] and staffed [1] extra capacity, and then got rid of it a short time later when it went almost completely unused [2]. Despite early claims they could, they did not bring it back for the second wave this past fall [3]. There was no reason for us to stay as locked down as we have been. [0] https://news.wttw.com/2020/03/30/mccormick-place-be-transformed-3000-bed-covid-19-care-center https://news.wttw.com/2020/03/30/mccormick-place-be-transfor... [1] https://abc7chicago.com/doctors-and-nurses-coronavirus-pandemic-illinois-helps/6063848/ https://abc7chicago.com/doctors-and-nurses-coronavirus-pande... [2] https://news.wttw.com/2020/05/01/field-hospital-mccormick-place-will-close-after-treating-few-patients-curve-bends https://news.wttw.com/2020/05/01/field-hospital-mccormick-pl... [3] https://chicago.suntimes.com/2020/11/13/21562828/mccormick-place-covid-19-hospital-staffing-equipment-favorite-healthcare-alliance-health-vizient https://chicago.suntimes.com/2020/11/13/21562828/mccormick-p...
- Kim_Bruning 6y ago
  Or ... is it that the restrictions are the thing keeping the hospitals from going over capacity?
  - Izkata 6y ago
    You're talking about now, I'm talking about then. We had a ton of extra unused capacity and could have loosened restrictions back then, but didn't. If we had, then maybe people could have handled doing this longer, but we didn't and so people care less and less about following the restrictions.
    - Kim_Bruning 6y ago
      Ok, so take a look at this data page from Germany, if you mess with the graphs a bit, you'll see new cases drop off around June, in time for summer holidays. Germany chose to reduce restrictions at that time. That's reasonable, right? https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0345h&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0345... So New Zealand was even more successful. By July, they got things well and truly under control: https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0ctw_b&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0ctw... Or take France: https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0f8l9c&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0f8l... All of these are having a bit more trouble with the second wave, Clearly something has changed about the nature of Covid. But you can see them weathering the first wave, and dealing with the second wave. You see how the number of cases drops off to near 0 during summer? --- This is the USA: https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen&mid=%2Fm%2F09c7w0 https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3... Take care: that Y axis is much larger than the other examples above. On June 1 2020 there were still 22000 measured new cases on that day alone. Sure that's a slight drop from the 34000 cases on April 9. But that's not really safe to loosen restrictions, now is it? (Now we do know that that's an aggregate and some individual states have done better. You can drill down to get that information.)
    - Kim_Bruning 6y ago
      Continuing on from my other reply on country scale, we can actually drill down to Illinois and take a look: https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen&mid=%2Fm%2F03v0t https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3... You can see that restrictions did have clear effects in first and second wave. By June, restrictions had beaten back the virus almost far enough. You can also see the effect of strong restrictions at the end of November (up to "Tier 3" by Nov 20) : the number of infections is trending back down. Looks like Illinois is doing a fair job! Thank goodness those extra beds weren't needed.
      - Izkata 6y ago
        You continue to ignore the extra hospital capacity that is my entire point for here, but I'll just add - the cases started dropping Nov 16, days before the new restrictions went into place. If it was the new restrictions having an effect, they shouldn't have started dropping until somewhere around Dec 5.
SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
I would rather that our leaders be honest from the start about what we’re facing and what they plan to do about it. I’m extraordinarily skeptical that trying to control public opinion by boiling the frog is effective.

Izkata 6y ago

Here in Chicago we built [0] and staffed [1] extra capacity, and then got rid of it a short time later when it went almost completely unused [2]. Despite early claims they could, they did not bring it back for the second wave this past fall [3]. There was no reason for us to stay as locked down as we have been. [0] https://news.wttw.com/2020/03/30/mccormick-place-be-transformed-3000-bed-covid-19-care-center https://news.wttw.com/2020/03/30/mccormick-place-be-transfor... [1] https://abc7chicago.com/doctors-and-nurses-coronavirus-pandemic-illinois-helps/6063848/ https://abc7chicago.com/doctors-and-nurses-coronavirus-pande... [2] https://news.wttw.com/2020/05/01/field-hospital-mccormick-place-will-close-after-treating-few-patients-curve-bends https://news.wttw.com/2020/05/01/field-hospital-mccormick-pl... [3] https://chicago.suntimes.com/2020/11/13/21562828/mccormick-place-covid-19-hospital-staffing-equipment-favorite-healthcare-alliance-health-vizient https://chicago.suntimes.com/2020/11/13/21562828/mccormick-p...

Kim_Bruning 6y ago
Or ... is it that the restrictions are the thing keeping the hospitals from going over capacity?
- Izkata 6y ago
  You're talking about now, I'm talking about then. We had a ton of extra unused capacity and could have loosened restrictions back then, but didn't. If we had, then maybe people could have handled doing this longer, but we didn't and so people care less and less about following the restrictions.
  - Kim_Bruning 6y ago
    Ok, so take a look at this data page from Germany, if you mess with the graphs a bit, you'll see new cases drop off around June, in time for summer holidays. Germany chose to reduce restrictions at that time. That's reasonable, right? https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0345h&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0345... So New Zealand was even more successful. By July, they got things well and truly under control: https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0ctw_b&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0ctw... Or take France: https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0f8l9c&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0f8l... All of these are having a bit more trouble with the second wave, Clearly something has changed about the nature of Covid. But you can see them weathering the first wave, and dealing with the second wave. You see how the number of cases drops off to near 0 during summer? --- This is the USA: https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen&mid=%2Fm%2F09c7w0 https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3... Take care: that Y axis is much larger than the other examples above. On June 1 2020 there were still 22000 measured new cases on that day alone. Sure that's a slight drop from the 34000 cases on April 9. But that's not really safe to loosen restrictions, now is it? (Now we do know that that's an aggregate and some individual states have done better. You can drill down to get that information.)
  - Kim_Bruning 6y ago
    Continuing on from my other reply on country scale, we can actually drill down to Illinois and take a look: https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen&mid=%2Fm%2F03v0t https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3... You can see that restrictions did have clear effects in first and second wave. By June, restrictions had beaten back the virus almost far enough. You can also see the effect of strong restrictions at the end of November (up to "Tier 3" by Nov 20) : the number of infections is trending back down. Looks like Illinois is doing a fair job! Thank goodness those extra beds weren't needed.
    - Izkata 6y ago
      You continue to ignore the extra hospital capacity that is my entire point for here, but I'll just add - the cases started dropping Nov 16, days before the new restrictions went into place. If it was the new restrictions having an effect, they shouldn't have started dropping until somewhere around Dec 5.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

I would rather that our leaders be honest from the start about what we’re facing and what they plan to do about it. I’m extraordinarily skeptical that trying to control public opinion by boiling the frog is effective.