6 ms·

One might reasonably believe that clearly defined exit criteria might boost compliance if chosen carefully with community input. I can see the other side of thi

by peytn 6y ago

One might reasonably believe that clearly defined exit criteria might boost compliance if chosen carefully with community input. I can see the other side of things. In my opinion we are doing a very poor job of meeting people’s needs.

supertrope 6y ago
People were only in this together for a few weeks in March and April. I can somewhat understand as losing one's job is losing almost everything in America. Our leaders frittered away two months of advance warning, provided contradictory advice on masks, and botched creating a test. Compare the United States with Korea which had their first confirmed case on the same day.
- Izkata 6y ago
  "Two weeks to slow the spread" while we build up hospital capacity has turned into nearly a year of not bothering with extra capacity. It doesn't surprise me people are fed up.
  - supertrope 6y ago
    It takes years to train a nurse and a decade to train a physician. An indication of max capacity is when hospitals halt elective procedures. There are currently 130K people laid out in hospitals. We have mercifully just trended down from a third peak. Would you rather we get Italy's fate of mass casualty stage rationing?
    - Izkata 6y ago
      Here in Chicago we built [0] and staffed [1] extra capacity, and then got rid of it a short time later when it went almost completely unused [2]. Despite early claims they could, they did not bring it back for the second wave this past fall [3]. There was no reason for us to stay as locked down as we have been. [0] https://news.wttw.com/2020/03/30/mccormick-place-be-transformed-3000-bed-covid-19-care-center https://news.wttw.com/2020/03/30/mccormick-place-be-transfor... [1] https://abc7chicago.com/doctors-and-nurses-coronavirus-pandemic-illinois-helps/6063848/ https://abc7chicago.com/doctors-and-nurses-coronavirus-pande... [2] https://news.wttw.com/2020/05/01/field-hospital-mccormick-place-will-close-after-treating-few-patients-curve-bends https://news.wttw.com/2020/05/01/field-hospital-mccormick-pl... [3] https://chicago.suntimes.com/2020/11/13/21562828/mccormick-place-covid-19-hospital-staffing-equipment-favorite-healthcare-alliance-health-vizient https://chicago.suntimes.com/2020/11/13/21562828/mccormick-p...
      - Kim_Bruning 6y ago
        Or ... is it that the restrictions are the thing keeping the hospitals from going over capacity?
        Izkata 6y ago
        You're talking about now, I'm talking about then. We had a ton of extra unused capacity and could have loosened restrictions back then, but didn't. If we had, then maybe people could have handled doing this longer, but we didn't and so people care less and less about following the restrictions.
        Kim_Bruning 6y ago
        Ok, so take a look at this data page from Germany, if you mess with the graphs a bit, you'll see new cases drop off around June, in time for summer holidays. Germany chose to reduce restrictions at that time. That's reasonable, right? https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0345h&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0345... So New Zealand was even more successful. By July, they got things well and truly under control: https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0ctw_b&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0ctw... Or take France: https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0f8l9c&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0f8l... All of these are having a bit more trouble with the second wave, Clearly something has changed about the nature of Covid. But you can see them weathering the first wave, and dealing with the second wave. You see how the number of cases drops off to near 0 during summer? --- This is the USA: https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen&mid=%2Fm%2F09c7w0 https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3... Take care: that Y axis is much larger than the other examples above. On June 1 2020 there were still 22000 measured new cases on that day alone. Sure that's a slight drop from the 34000 cases on April 9. But that's not really safe to loosen restrictions, now is it? (Now we do know that that's an aggregate and some individual states have done better. You can drill down to get that information.)
        Kim_Bruning 6y ago
    - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
      I would rather that our leaders be honest from the start about what we’re facing and what they plan to do about it. I’m extraordinarily skeptical that trying to control public opinion by boiling the frog is effective.
flukus 6y ago
Is it possible to create clearly defined criteria when there are such large error bars and so many unknowns? Throw in varying climates, urbanization levels and other factors and I don't think it's reasonable to pick an arbitrary point. Re-openings in most of the world have been staged anyway.

by peytn 6y ago

supertrope 6y ago

People were only in this together for a few weeks in March and April. I can somewhat understand as losing one's job is losing almost everything in America. Our leaders frittered away two months of advance warning, provided contradictory advice on masks, and botched creating a test. Compare the United States with Korea which had their first confirmed case on the same day.

Izkata 6y ago
"Two weeks to slow the spread" while we build up hospital capacity has turned into nearly a year of not bothering with extra capacity. It doesn't surprise me people are fed up.
- supertrope 6y ago
  It takes years to train a nurse and a decade to train a physician. An indication of max capacity is when hospitals halt elective procedures. There are currently 130K people laid out in hospitals. We have mercifully just trended down from a third peak. Would you rather we get Italy's fate of mass casualty stage rationing?
  - Izkata 6y ago
    Here in Chicago we built [0] and staffed [1] extra capacity, and then got rid of it a short time later when it went almost completely unused [2]. Despite early claims they could, they did not bring it back for the second wave this past fall [3]. There was no reason for us to stay as locked down as we have been. [0] https://news.wttw.com/2020/03/30/mccormick-place-be-transformed-3000-bed-covid-19-care-center https://news.wttw.com/2020/03/30/mccormick-place-be-transfor... [1] https://abc7chicago.com/doctors-and-nurses-coronavirus-pandemic-illinois-helps/6063848/ https://abc7chicago.com/doctors-and-nurses-coronavirus-pande... [2] https://news.wttw.com/2020/05/01/field-hospital-mccormick-place-will-close-after-treating-few-patients-curve-bends https://news.wttw.com/2020/05/01/field-hospital-mccormick-pl... [3] https://chicago.suntimes.com/2020/11/13/21562828/mccormick-place-covid-19-hospital-staffing-equipment-favorite-healthcare-alliance-health-vizient https://chicago.suntimes.com/2020/11/13/21562828/mccormick-p...
    - Kim_Bruning 6y ago
      Or ... is it that the restrictions are the thing keeping the hospitals from going over capacity?
      - Izkata 6y ago
        You're talking about now, I'm talking about then. We had a ton of extra unused capacity and could have loosened restrictions back then, but didn't. If we had, then maybe people could have handled doing this longer, but we didn't and so people care less and less about following the restrictions.
        Kim_Bruning 6y ago
        Ok, so take a look at this data page from Germany, if you mess with the graphs a bit, you'll see new cases drop off around June, in time for summer holidays. Germany chose to reduce restrictions at that time. That's reasonable, right? https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0345h&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0345... So New Zealand was even more successful. By July, they got things well and truly under control: https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0ctw_b&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0ctw... Or take France: https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0f8l9c&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&mid=%2Fm%2F0f8l... All of these are having a bit more trouble with the second wave, Clearly something has changed about the nature of Covid. But you can see them weathering the first wave, and dealing with the second wave. You see how the number of cases drops off to near 0 during summer? --- This is the USA: https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen&mid=%2Fm%2F09c7w0 https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3... Take care: that Y axis is much larger than the other examples above. On June 1 2020 there were still 22000 measured new cases on that day alone. Sure that's a slight drop from the 34000 cases on April 9. But that's not really safe to loosen restrictions, now is it? (Now we do know that that's an aggregate and some individual states have done better. You can drill down to get that information.)
        Kim_Bruning 6y ago
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    I would rather that our leaders be honest from the start about what we’re facing and what they plan to do about it. I’m extraordinarily skeptical that trying to control public opinion by boiling the frog is effective.

flukus 6y ago

Is it possible to create clearly defined criteria when there are such large error bars and so many unknowns? Throw in varying climates, urbanization levels and other factors and I don't think it's reasonable to pick an arbitrary point. Re-openings in most of the world have been staged anyway.