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Immunized, not vaccinated. In particular, patients who have recovered from COVID-19 are (mostly) immune and count towards "herd immunity". (Obviously vaccinat

Immunized, not vaccinated. In particular, patients who have recovered from COVID-19 are (mostly) immune and count towards "herd immunity". (Obviously vaccination is by far the preferable of those two options!)

guscost 6y ago
You’re not wrong, but the right people cannot profit or accumulate power via the spread of natural immunity, and not at all coincidentally it is unpopular to mention. “But the risk is far too great not to pay trillions and surrender our freedom,” retorts a frightened chorus of people.
- EamonnMR 6y ago
  It's probably more along the lines of us not being able to correctly guess who has recovered from CoVID because most people are asymptomatic.
  - guscost 6y ago
    Not buying that for a second. This same industry ran PR to squash efforts at developing competing vaccines in human challenge trials[0]. I try to remind myself that most individual players don’t act with malice, but the system as a whole runs purely on profit-taking and corruption, and it has managed to do horrific damage. [0] https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/23/challenge-trials-live-coronavirus-speedy-covid-19-vaccine/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/23/challenge-trials-live-co...
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- metamet 6y ago
  Research suggests that after infection with some coronaviruses, reinfection with the same virus — though usually mild and only happening in a fraction of people — is possible after a period of months or years. Further research is needed to determine the protective effect of antibodies to the virus in those who have been infected. Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic. If many people become sick with COVID-19 at once, the health care system could quickly become overwhelmed. This amount of infection could also lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have chronic conditions. [1] Which would result in ~1.3M dead Americans. So no. The concept of defeating COVID by relying on a "natural herd immunity" is a bad idea on all fronts. [1] https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808 https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/i...
  - guscost 6y ago
    What should I tell my elderly relatives who are so creeped out by this fascist, disgraceful fiasco, that they will refuse a vaccine even though it has a decent chance of doing some good?
    - metamet 6y ago
      That you don't want them to get it and die, like my grandma did? I'm not quite sure how you can convince someone to get a vaccine if they don't trust the science on it.
      - guscost 6y ago
        I’m not sure how much of it is fear of the MRNA vaccine itself, and how much is an objection to the creepy fascist context. Probably a lot of both, and maybe yes a bit too much of the former. But in any case their reply is, “We would rather take the risk.” If they get sick and die like your grandma (condolences), they will have done so at least partially by choice, a choice which they have damn well earned by their mid-nineties. I would not prefer that to them avoiding the disease entirely (they would be especially mad at being shut away in a closed ward to die alone), but it sure as hell would still be better than seeing them enslaved by technocrats.
        metamet 6y ago
        You could encourage them to keep in mind that by refusing to get vaccinated, they're likely going to be living the rest of their life under threat of contracting COVID. It seems that those who are vaccinated can still spread it, and I don't believe we're going to be in a place where COVID is eliminated altogether anytime soon. There will continue to be outbreaks, and it's possible that those who are vaccinated will pick it up and pass it around, and the further mutations of it seem to be increasing its rate of spread. But you're right. It is their choice.
        guscost 6y ago
anovikov 6y ago
Only for a while. Anywhere from 2 months to 2 years depending on who you ask, and severity of disease - 3 to 7 months for most people.
- jnotwell 6y ago
  No one with any credibility is suggesting 2 months... As of October, "The confirmed examples worldwide [of re-infections] could possibly be counted on your fingers" [0]. Immune memory cells, which are more potent than antibodies, persist for longer than 6 months [1]. We don't have data to support 2 years of immunity, but current evidence is pointing at it being long-lasting [2]. [0] https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/10/14/immunity-and-re-infection https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/10/14/im... [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03207-w https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03207-w [2] https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1349898485756162048 https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1349898485756162048
  - anovikov 6y ago
    Lots and lots and lots (hundreds of thousands) of people in Russia have been officially infected and diagnosed twice. Many Russian docs who worked with Covid patients have already been sick three times. And yes, most of the time they say it's 3-5 months for asymptomatic cases and 9 months and more for severe symptomatic.
    - azeirah 6y ago
      Do you have a source on that? I'm concerned about reinfection, I had it back in March last year. Got tested for antibodies, the test did detect some but concluded I didn't have immunity anymore.
    - jnotwell 6y ago
      This comment is not consistent with other data. It appears that Russia has a different distribution of coronavirus strains than the rest of Europe [0], but the strains in Russia are certainly found elsewhere. If hundreds of thousands of Russians were re-infected this would be observed elsewhere and documented. The closest thing I can find to reporting on this matter is here [1]. The Siberian Times does not appear to be a reputable news source [2], and its claims do not match the magnitude of those above. It reports that Russia’s chief sanitary doctor Anna Popova said, "in Russia there was not a single confirmed case of coronavirus reinfection." Furthermore, the doctor on the other side of this disagreement has "heard about other cases [of re-infection] elsewhere in Russia from colleagues" (and claims to have been re-infected). This is not "lots and lots (hundreds of thousands)"... There is evidence of re-infections in the scientific literature, but they are exceedingly rare (tens of people worldwide). Long-term immunity will have to be measured, especially in light of new variants, but current evidence points in that direction. [0] https://nextstrain.org/ncov/europe?transmissions=show https://nextstrain.org/ncov/europe?transmissions=show [1] https://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/virology-professor-hits-back-at-russian-chief-doctors-claim-of-no-covid-19-reinfection-cases/ https://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/virology-profess... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Siberian_Times https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Siberian_Times

guscost 6y ago

You’re not wrong, but the right people cannot profit or accumulate power via the spread of natural immunity, and not at all coincidentally it is unpopular to mention. “But the risk is far too great not to pay trillions and surrender our freedom,” retorts a frightened chorus of people.

EamonnMR 6y ago
It's probably more along the lines of us not being able to correctly guess who has recovered from CoVID because most people are asymptomatic.
- guscost 6y ago
  Not buying that for a second. This same industry ran PR to squash efforts at developing competing vaccines in human challenge trials[0]. I try to remind myself that most individual players don’t act with malice, but the system as a whole runs purely on profit-taking and corruption, and it has managed to do horrific damage. [0] https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/23/challenge-trials-live-coronavirus-speedy-covid-19-vaccine/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/23/challenge-trials-live-co...
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
metamet 6y ago
Research suggests that after infection with some coronaviruses, reinfection with the same virus — though usually mild and only happening in a fraction of people — is possible after a period of months or years. Further research is needed to determine the protective effect of antibodies to the virus in those who have been infected. Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic. If many people become sick with COVID-19 at once, the health care system could quickly become overwhelmed. This amount of infection could also lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have chronic conditions. [1] Which would result in ~1.3M dead Americans. So no. The concept of defeating COVID by relying on a "natural herd immunity" is a bad idea on all fronts. [1] https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808 https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/i...
- guscost 6y ago
  What should I tell my elderly relatives who are so creeped out by this fascist, disgraceful fiasco, that they will refuse a vaccine even though it has a decent chance of doing some good?
  - metamet 6y ago
    That you don't want them to get it and die, like my grandma did? I'm not quite sure how you can convince someone to get a vaccine if they don't trust the science on it.
    - guscost 6y ago
      I’m not sure how much of it is fear of the MRNA vaccine itself, and how much is an objection to the creepy fascist context. Probably a lot of both, and maybe yes a bit too much of the former. But in any case their reply is, “We would rather take the risk.” If they get sick and die like your grandma (condolences), they will have done so at least partially by choice, a choice which they have damn well earned by their mid-nineties. I would not prefer that to them avoiding the disease entirely (they would be especially mad at being shut away in a closed ward to die alone), but it sure as hell would still be better than seeing them enslaved by technocrats.
      - metamet 6y ago
        You could encourage them to keep in mind that by refusing to get vaccinated, they're likely going to be living the rest of their life under threat of contracting COVID. It seems that those who are vaccinated can still spread it, and I don't believe we're going to be in a place where COVID is eliminated altogether anytime soon. There will continue to be outbreaks, and it's possible that those who are vaccinated will pick it up and pass it around, and the further mutations of it seem to be increasing its rate of spread. But you're right. It is their choice.
        guscost 6y ago

anovikov 6y ago

Only for a while. Anywhere from 2 months to 2 years depending on who you ask, and severity of disease - 3 to 7 months for most people.

jnotwell 6y ago
No one with any credibility is suggesting 2 months... As of October, "The confirmed examples worldwide [of re-infections] could possibly be counted on your fingers" [0]. Immune memory cells, which are more potent than antibodies, persist for longer than 6 months [1]. We don't have data to support 2 years of immunity, but current evidence is pointing at it being long-lasting [2]. [0] https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/10/14/immunity-and-re-infection https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/10/14/im... [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03207-w https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03207-w [2] https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1349898485756162048 https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1349898485756162048
- anovikov 6y ago
  Lots and lots and lots (hundreds of thousands) of people in Russia have been officially infected and diagnosed twice. Many Russian docs who worked with Covid patients have already been sick three times. And yes, most of the time they say it's 3-5 months for asymptomatic cases and 9 months and more for severe symptomatic.
  - azeirah 6y ago
    Do you have a source on that? I'm concerned about reinfection, I had it back in March last year. Got tested for antibodies, the test did detect some but concluded I didn't have immunity anymore.
  - jnotwell 6y ago
    This comment is not consistent with other data. It appears that Russia has a different distribution of coronavirus strains than the rest of Europe [0], but the strains in Russia are certainly found elsewhere. If hundreds of thousands of Russians were re-infected this would be observed elsewhere and documented. The closest thing I can find to reporting on this matter is here [1]. The Siberian Times does not appear to be a reputable news source [2], and its claims do not match the magnitude of those above. It reports that Russia’s chief sanitary doctor Anna Popova said, "in Russia there was not a single confirmed case of coronavirus reinfection." Furthermore, the doctor on the other side of this disagreement has "heard about other cases [of re-infection] elsewhere in Russia from colleagues" (and claims to have been re-infected). This is not "lots and lots (hundreds of thousands)"... There is evidence of re-infections in the scientific literature, but they are exceedingly rare (tens of people worldwide). Long-term immunity will have to be measured, especially in light of new variants, but current evidence points in that direction. [0] https://nextstrain.org/ncov/europe?transmissions=show https://nextstrain.org/ncov/europe?transmissions=show [1] https://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/virology-professor-hits-back-at-russian-chief-doctors-claim-of-no-covid-19-reinfection-cases/ https://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/virology-profess... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Siberian_Times https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Siberian_Times