3 ms·

I'm interested in how vaccinating a small number of people can make a big impact on the effects of the pandemic. The risk of death and severity rapidly increas

I'm interested in how vaccinating a small number of people can make a big impact on the effects of the pandemic. The risk of death and severity rapidly increases with age. We also have a good idea of the kinds of preexisting conditions put you most at risk. We have already been targeting health care professionals (increases health care capacity) and people over 65 (the majority of the at-risk population). If we are able to reduce the severe case rate by 10x or 100x, do we even need to reach herd immunity or would to be best just to remove all social distancing controls and let it burn itself out, knowing that the negative impact from those infections would be small enough to not put a strain on healthcare resources?

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
We know of a half dozen human coronaviruses that stay in circulation rather than burning themselves out, so there’s reason to worry this one wouldn’t either. The exact question is probably academic, because it won’t be politically feasible to maintain social distancing when severe cases are down 100x, but we’ll definitely want to keep vaccinating.
- dougmwne 6y ago
  The Dutch have started burning their bicycles in protest. That's a pretty good sign we're at the end of the public's patience for this. The deaths are terrible, but you know what killed more people over the past year? Cigarettes. And they sell those at the grocery store.
supertrope 6y ago
Old people 65+ are about 90% of hospitalizations and deaths. Israel finished vaccinating their seniors and hospital admissions are down 60%.
- forrestthewoods 6y ago
  65+ is 90% deaths. But only 65% of hospitalizations. And, counter-intuitively, only 40% of ICU admissions. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Er2kghUXcAAWyzx?format=jpg&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Er2kghUXcAAWyzx?format=jpg&name=...
- eikenberry 6y ago
  If the 65+ group made up 90% of the hospitalizations and they all have been vaccinated, do they know why are the hospitalization numbers down only 40%?
  - supertrope 6y ago
    Whoops, it's 60% drop two days after the second shot. https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-sees-60-drop-in-hospitalizations-for-over-60s-in-weeks-after-vaccination/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-sees-60-drop-in-hospita...

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

We know of a half dozen human coronaviruses that stay in circulation rather than burning themselves out, so there’s reason to worry this one wouldn’t either. The exact question is probably academic, because it won’t be politically feasible to maintain social distancing when severe cases are down 100x, but we’ll definitely want to keep vaccinating.

dougmwne 6y ago
The Dutch have started burning their bicycles in protest. That's a pretty good sign we're at the end of the public's patience for this. The deaths are terrible, but you know what killed more people over the past year? Cigarettes. And they sell those at the grocery store.

supertrope 6y ago

Old people 65+ are about 90% of hospitalizations and deaths. Israel finished vaccinating their seniors and hospital admissions are down 60%.

forrestthewoods 6y ago
65+ is 90% deaths. But only 65% of hospitalizations. And, counter-intuitively, only 40% of ICU admissions. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Er2kghUXcAAWyzx?format=jpg&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Er2kghUXcAAWyzx?format=jpg&name=...
eikenberry 6y ago
If the 65+ group made up 90% of the hospitalizations and they all have been vaccinated, do they know why are the hospitalization numbers down only 40%?
- supertrope 6y ago
  Whoops, it's 60% drop two days after the second shot. https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-sees-60-drop-in-hospitalizations-for-over-60s-in-weeks-after-vaccination/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-sees-60-drop-in-hospita...