4 ms·

That number has been thrown around for here immunity. But I don't think it answers the GP's question because * Herd immunity numbers assume no ongoing vaccinat

That number has been thrown around for here immunity. But I don't think it answers the GP's question because * Herd immunity numbers assume no ongoing vaccination -- they more or less say, "If life went back to normal, would the virus slow down or speed up?" * Age-related mortality and age-related vaccination rates are important. If we vaccinate all of the people who are at serious risk, the danger is mostly gone. There have obviously been deaths in populations not at serious risk, but not in proportion to the economic costs of locking down the economy. And as an aside, vaccine immunity is estimated to be about as good as post-infection immunity. And most estimates of the actual infection rate put them several times (some estimate 8-10x, but that's looking unlikely IMO) the measured case rate.

randmeerkat 6y ago
Imho you’re underestimating the impact of the disease in general. Disease is much more than who lives or dies, there’s also people who “survive”. A number of asymptomatic covid patients have severe lung damage. Vaccinating “at risk” people who might die doesn’t account for all the people who might live permanently disabled lives as a result of a covid infection. https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2021/01/14/asymptomatic-covid-lung-damage/ https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2021/01/14/asymptomatic-covid-l...
- DenisM 6y ago
  There are three X-rays in this article, and the covid one is completely bogus. Kind of stains the credibility of the article and the company the produced it.
- packetlost 6y ago
  Considering the source for that is a single trauma surgeon on Twitter, I'm going to wait until there's something formally published on the matter. We have no information on the condition of the patient with "covid lung", or even a comparison between asymptomatic patients vs patients put on ventilators. Not saying you're wrong, but that article seems sensationalized and quite honestly lacking in relevant information.
  - disgruntledphd2 6y ago
    As an anecdote, my sister had Covid in March and had lung damage in October when she went for a checkup. Also, we're not going to get much research on this until after the pandemic is over, because of pandemic related lack of routine medical care.
- irq11 6y ago
  The micrograph shown in that link was taken from this NEJM article, which clearly says that the patients in the study died from Covid: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2015432 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2015432 Dying from Covid is not “asymptomatic Covid”. So your evidence for this phenomenon consists of a local news article where they’ve quoted the opinion of one person, mis-represented a figure from a journal article, and showed x-rays with no citations or context.

randmeerkat 6y ago

Imho you’re underestimating the impact of the disease in general. Disease is much more than who lives or dies, there’s also people who “survive”. A number of asymptomatic covid patients have severe lung damage. Vaccinating “at risk” people who might die doesn’t account for all the people who might live permanently disabled lives as a result of a covid infection. https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2021/01/14/asymptomatic-covid-lung-damage/ https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2021/01/14/asymptomatic-covid-l...

DenisM 6y ago
There are three X-rays in this article, and the covid one is completely bogus. Kind of stains the credibility of the article and the company the produced it.
packetlost 6y ago
Considering the source for that is a single trauma surgeon on Twitter, I'm going to wait until there's something formally published on the matter. We have no information on the condition of the patient with "covid lung", or even a comparison between asymptomatic patients vs patients put on ventilators. Not saying you're wrong, but that article seems sensationalized and quite honestly lacking in relevant information.
- disgruntledphd2 6y ago
  As an anecdote, my sister had Covid in March and had lung damage in October when she went for a checkup. Also, we're not going to get much research on this until after the pandemic is over, because of pandemic related lack of routine medical care.
irq11 6y ago
The micrograph shown in that link was taken from this NEJM article, which clearly says that the patients in the study died from Covid: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2015432 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2015432 Dying from Covid is not “asymptomatic Covid”. So your evidence for this phenomenon consists of a local news article where they’ve quoted the opinion of one person, mis-represented a figure from a journal article, and showed x-rays with no citations or context.