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I have one friend who has a PhD in Future Studies. He said there are benefits to a slow population decline and the downsides are completely manageable. It's ve

I have one friend who has a PhD in Future Studies. He said there are benefits to a slow population decline and the downsides are completely manageable. It's very hard to convince leaders of that though. You'll notice the conclusory comment in the FA, 'Falling fertility rates have been a problem in the world’s wealthiest nations – notably in Japan and Germany – for some time.' Most will skip right past that nodding their head despite the author providing zero evidence or support for that. I think part of that is people associate population decline with places that suffered some economic insult and lost sustainability. Mill closed everyone scattered to the winds kind of thing. That's not the same thing as declining fertility.

throwawayboise 6y ago
It's a problem for governments because it will expose the ponzi-scheme nature of their social welfare programs.
- Gibbon1 6y ago
  When I look at projections for Japan what I see is over the next 20 years the percentage of people over 65 goes from 28% to 38%. And then just stays there. So the end point is 1 out of 2.5 people are retirement age or more likely doing light work. And one out eight are children or teenagers. If you go back to the high population growth years you can probably swap the percentages of children vs elderly. Leaving you with 50% of the population in the workforce. Society certainly didn't exactly fall apart then.
- imtringued 6y ago
  The fundamental problem is that your savings are worthless if no is one offering their labor for money. You need to maintain a working population to take care of the elderly.
throwaway0a5e 6y ago
There seems to be a lot of people in government to whom the idea of having less people under their control is palatable. Every time the subject of jurisdiction splitting comes up these people come out in force.
- Gibbon1 6y ago
  There is a fetish for growth measured aggregate statistics. Population decline threatens that mindset.

throwawayboise 6y ago

It's a problem for governments because it will expose the ponzi-scheme nature of their social welfare programs.

Gibbon1 6y ago
When I look at projections for Japan what I see is over the next 20 years the percentage of people over 65 goes from 28% to 38%. And then just stays there. So the end point is 1 out of 2.5 people are retirement age or more likely doing light work. And one out eight are children or teenagers. If you go back to the high population growth years you can probably swap the percentages of children vs elderly. Leaving you with 50% of the population in the workforce. Society certainly didn't exactly fall apart then.
imtringued 6y ago
The fundamental problem is that your savings are worthless if no is one offering their labor for money. You need to maintain a working population to take care of the elderly.

throwaway0a5e 6y ago

There seems to be a lot of people in government to whom the idea of having less people under their control is palatable. Every time the subject of jurisdiction splitting comes up these people come out in force.

Gibbon1 6y ago
There is a fetish for growth measured aggregate statistics. Population decline threatens that mindset.